Posted:
#26
Like the play, Trubisky is not the guy and Pitt OL is horrible. They will struggle to score tonight. 
2
TNF - Steelers / Browns....
Posted:
#27
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
NFL Season Record +12.5 Units The Browns lost a game last week against the Jets that they had in the bag. Literally, they gave it away. All they had to do was run out the clock when they were up by 7, and they would have won. But we know what happened - typical NFL mistakes - and they end up losing and getting booed off the field on their home turf. I like that this happened to them last week. It can only mean good things for this week coming up against a wounded team that is struggling big time on offense. The Browns are very quietly (and very early) the leading rushing team in the league through 2 weeks (against the Jets and Panthers). I am not putting too much stock in that - but it does show that they can potentially move the ball without relying on Brissett to do it. I think tonight is a run until they stop us type of deal for the Browns, and without Watt - the Steelers defense struggles to stop the run. The Patriots were successful last week running the ball - and I think the Browns will be also tonight. The Steelers have relied on turnovers and big plays to stay close in both of their games so far - but scoring points is and will be a problem for them. Trubisky is turnover prone, and they have been fortunate to be in the two games only gaining 267 and 243 yards respectively. They are tied for last in the NFL in YPP. They have been very efficient in turning those yards in to points - and keeping games close - but this is not a recipe for success long term in the NFL. I don't love this game, or the spot - but I do think the Browns are a bit of a bargain at -4 and should win a 23-14 type of game. My simulation model has the browns covering the -4 56%, Steelers +4 40%, and push 4%. Browns -4 (2 units). Might even be able to get 3.5 closer to game time - Bookmaker currently has -4 -105 GL all
In reality Pitt has been pretty good vs the run this year.. Last week shut down the Pats run game till that last 6 minute drive when they ran it down their throat.. But at that point the defense were gassed.. After a good stop then a 40 second drive by Mitch and a quick punt.. being so early inn the season nobody is ready to play the minutes Pitt's defense was ask to play.. That being said Chubb always rolls vs Pitt but this years defense has been light years better than last years.. Off season pick ups and a healthy Lualua ....LOL.. have paid off IMO.. GL.. One of us has a winner.. Plus its do or die for Mitch tonight.. Why leave anything in the bag..I expect many deep throws tonight for better or worse.. He was raked this week in every media outlet for being a dump off king...Five yard Mitch.. Got a gut feeling tonight it changes tonight.. GL..NFL Season Record +12.5 Units The Browns lost a game last week against the Jets that they had in the bag. Literally, they gave it away. All they had to do was run out the clock when they were up by 7, and they would have won. But we know what happened - typical NFL mistakes - and they end up losing and getting booed off the field on their home turf. I like that this happened to them last week. It can only mean good things for this week coming up against a wounded team that is struggling big time on offense. The Browns are very quietly (and very early) the leading rushing team in the league through 2 weeks (against the Jets and Panthers). I am not putting too much stock in that - but it does show that they can potentially move the ball without relying on Brissett to do it. I think tonight is a run until they stop us type of deal for the Browns, and without Watt - the Steelers defense struggles to stop the run. The Patriots were successful last week running the ball - and I think the Browns will be also tonight. The Steelers have relied on turnovers and big plays to stay close in both of their games so far - but scoring points is and will be a problem for them. Trubisky is turnover prone, and they have been fortunate to be in the two games only gaining 267 and 243 yards respectively. They are tied for last in the NFL in YPP. They have been very efficient in turning those yards in to points - and keeping games close - but this is not a recipe for success long term in the NFL. I don't love this game, or the spot - but I do think the Browns are a bit of a bargain at -4 and should win a 23-14 type of game. My simulation model has the browns covering the -4 56%, Steelers +4 40%, and push 4%. Browns -4 (2 units). Might even be able to get 3.5 closer to game time - Bookmaker currently has -4 -105 GL all
Be careful with the axe Eugene.
0
Posted:
#29
Quote Originally Posted by ArtSchlichterJr:
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: NFL Season Record +12.5 Units The Browns lost a game last week against the Jets that they had in the bag. Literally, they gave it away. All they had to do was run out the clock when they were up by 7, and they would have won. But we know what happened - typical NFL mistakes - and they end up losing and getting booed off the field on their home turf. I like that this happened to them last week. It can only mean good things for this week coming up against a wounded team that is struggling big time on offense. The Browns are very quietly (and very early) the leading rushing team in the league through 2 weeks (against the Jets and Panthers). I am not putting too much stock in that - but it does show that they can potentially move the ball without relying on Brissett to do it. I think tonight is a run until they stop us type of deal for the Browns, and without Watt - the Steelers defense struggles to stop the run. The Patriots were successful last week running the ball - and I think the Browns will be also tonight. The Steelers have relied on turnovers and big plays to stay close in both of their games so far - but scoring points is and will be a problem for them. Trubisky is turnover prone, and they have been fortunate to be in the two games only gaining 267 and 243 yards respectively. They are tied for last in the NFL in YPP. They have been very efficient in turning those yards in to points - and keeping games close - but this is not a recipe for success long term in the NFL. I don't love this game, or the spot - but I do think the Browns are a bit of a bargain at -4 and should win a 23-14 type of game. My simulation model has the browns covering the -4 56%, Steelers +4 40%, and push 4%. Browns -4 (2 units). Might even be able to get 3.5 closer to game time - Bookmaker currently has -4 -105 GL all In reality Pitt has been pretty good vs the run this year.. Last week shut down the Pats run game till that last 6 minute drive when they ran it down their throat.. But at that point the defense were gassed.. After a good stop then a 40 second drive by Mitch and a quick punt.. being so early inn the season nobody is ready to play the minutes Pitt's defense was ask to play.. That being said Chubb always rolls vs Pitt but this years defense has been light years better than last years.. Off season pick ups and a healthy Lualua ....LOL.. have paid off IMO.. GL.. One of us has a winner.. Plus its do or die for Mitch tonight.. Why leave anything in the bag..I expect many deep throws tonight for better or worse.. He was raked this week in every media outlet for being a dump off king...Five yard Mitch.. Got a gut feeling tonight it changes tonight.. GL..
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: NFL Season Record +12.5 Units The Browns lost a game last week against the Jets that they had in the bag. Literally, they gave it away. All they had to do was run out the clock when they were up by 7, and they would have won. But we know what happened - typical NFL mistakes - and they end up losing and getting booed off the field on their home turf. I like that this happened to them last week. It can only mean good things for this week coming up against a wounded team that is struggling big time on offense. The Browns are very quietly (and very early) the leading rushing team in the league through 2 weeks (against the Jets and Panthers). I am not putting too much stock in that - but it does show that they can potentially move the ball without relying on Brissett to do it. I think tonight is a run until they stop us type of deal for the Browns, and without Watt - the Steelers defense struggles to stop the run. The Patriots were successful last week running the ball - and I think the Browns will be also tonight. The Steelers have relied on turnovers and big plays to stay close in both of their games so far - but scoring points is and will be a problem for them. Trubisky is turnover prone, and they have been fortunate to be in the two games only gaining 267 and 243 yards respectively. They are tied for last in the NFL in YPP. They have been very efficient in turning those yards in to points - and keeping games close - but this is not a recipe for success long term in the NFL. I don't love this game, or the spot - but I do think the Browns are a bit of a bargain at -4 and should win a 23-14 type of game. My simulation model has the browns covering the -4 56%, Steelers +4 40%, and push 4%. Browns -4 (2 units). Might even be able to get 3.5 closer to game time - Bookmaker currently has -4 -105 GL all In reality Pitt has been pretty good vs the run this year.. Last week shut down the Pats run game till that last 6 minute drive when they ran it down their throat.. But at that point the defense were gassed.. After a good stop then a 40 second drive by Mitch and a quick punt.. being so early inn the season nobody is ready to play the minutes Pitt's defense was ask to play.. That being said Chubb always rolls vs Pitt but this years defense has been light years better than last years.. Off season pick ups and a healthy Lualua ....LOL.. have paid off IMO.. GL.. One of us has a winner.. Plus its do or die for Mitch tonight.. Why leave anything in the bag..I expect many deep throws tonight for better or worse.. He was raked this week in every media outlet for being a dump off king...Five yard Mitch.. Got a gut feeling tonight it changes tonight.. GL..
Pitt D against the run (adjusted for competition) 23rd so far this season in NFL.
No intent to debate - you make some very valid points - just pointing out why I think Pitt wont be able to stop the run tonight.
GL - like you said one of us will be happy in a few hours.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#30
Quote Originally Posted by BigFrank420:
What about at -4.5 van?
What about at -4.5 van?
Be patient and wait it out.
It does not go to 5. I am actually still seeing some 4's out there, even at reduced juice (Draftkings, Pointsbet, Betonline, Bovada, Superbook, Wynn).
In fact it is more 4 than 4.5 out there.
I dont look at point spreads in a vacuum. There is a price attached to it. The .5 point between 4 and 4.5 is worth about 6 cents.
GL
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
2
Posted:
#31
I actually wrote a big post on this exact subject..... The value of points and half points.
Lets look at Nitrogen for a minute as an example...
Browns -4.5 -101 OR Browns -4 -118
Clearly, if these are your options - you should lay the 4.5 all day every day. It is not worth 17 cents to get to -4. But every situation is different.
At the time I am typing.... The best Browns line out there is Pointsbet at -4 -107 AND Nitrogen at -4.5 -101 (they are essentially the same line). The best Steelers line out there is Lowvig at +4.5 -107.
GL
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#33
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
I actually wrote a big post on this exact subject..... The value of points and half points. Lets look at Nitrogen for a minute as an example... Browns -4.5 -101 OR Browns -4 -118 Clearly, if these are your options - you should lay the 4.5 all day every day. It is not worth 17 cents to get to -4. But every situation is different. At the time I am typing.... The best Browns line out there is Pointsbet at -4 -107 AND Nitrogen at -4.5 -101 (they are essentially the same line). The best Steelers line out there is Lowvig at +4.5 -107. GL
I actually wrote a big post on this exact subject..... The value of points and half points. Lets look at Nitrogen for a minute as an example... Browns -4.5 -101 OR Browns -4 -118 Clearly, if these are your options - you should lay the 4.5 all day every day. It is not worth 17 cents to get to -4. But every situation is different. At the time I am typing.... The best Browns line out there is Pointsbet at -4 -107 AND Nitrogen at -4.5 -101 (they are essentially the same line). The best Steelers line out there is Lowvig at +4.5 -107. GL
especially guys betting larger amounts for obvious reasons although some don't care. The 1/2 point (buy) is a psychological thing for many and can be expensive
0
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