TNF - Steelers / Browns....

NFL Season Record +12.5 Units

The Browns lost a game last week against the Jets that they had in the bag. Literally, they gave it away. All they had to do was run out the clock when they were up by 7, and they would have won. But we know what happened - typical NFL mistakes - and they end up losing and getting booed off the field on their home turf.

I like that this happened to them last week.  It can only mean good things for this week coming up against a wounded team that is struggling big time on offense.  The Browns are very quietly (and very early) the leading rushing team in the league through 2 weeks (against the Jets and Panthers).  I am not putting too much stock in that - but it does show that they can potentially move the ball without relying on Brissett to do it.  

I think tonight is a run until they stop us type of deal for the Browns, and without Watt - the Steelers defense struggles to stop the run.  The Patriots were successful last week running the ball - and I think the Browns will be also tonight.

The Steelers have relied on turnovers and big plays to stay close in both of their games so far - but scoring points is and will be a problem for them. Trubisky is turnover prone, and they have been fortunate to be in the two games only gaining 267 and 243 yards respectively.  They are tied for last in the NFL in YPP. They have been very efficient in turning those yards in to points - and keeping games close - but this is not a recipe for success long term in the NFL.

I don't love this game, or the spot - but I do think the Browns are a bit of a bargain at -4 and should win a 23-14 type of game.  My simulation model has the browns covering the -4 56%, Steelers +4 40%, and push 4%.

Browns -4 (2 units).  Might even be able to get 3.5 closer to game time - Bookmaker currently has -4 -105

GL all

I concur. Kinda liked them even at the dead # -5.....but figured last weeks debacle mixed with Pitts smoke & mirrors of looking semi decent would get people taking them getting more than a fg in a game with a low total. Should be an awful game to watch....

Van

Good luck Van.  

Excellent analysis. 

Tomlin's record as divisional away dog concerns me but that was all with Big Ben as the QB, not this scrub. Browns should be highly motivated to rid themselves of the taste from the Jets meltdown and will come out with purpose. Could be a good bet for -3 first half as well.

dawgs are all in town for this one........

I liked them at 5 as well, but after the Ravens, Rams and Raiders last week, I couldn't confidently pull the trigger.  I might take 1H and then see if FG moves down any more.  I just don't know what I'm missing with that much line movement without any big injury news or something and it's not like the Steelers have been lighting it up.

It will be ugly.  That is for sure.

What do the Raiders, Rams, and Ravens last week have anything to do with this game?

Honest question.

@vanzack

 Nothing lol.  Was more a comment on my personal confidence in my betting.

Yeah Pittsburg is going to learn why the Bears got rid of Trubisky. You can’t win with him Browns will help expose that tonight.

Got ya.  I know I dont need to say this....  But be a goldfish.

nice writeup 

I am wondering when Pittsburgh is going to get themselves a QB not just a serviceable signal caller (if that). This one will be fugly for sure.

Very good write up, tailing you on this. Thank you for posting Vanzack and BOL tonight!

Like the play...Bol Van....

gonna be a covers bloodbath.....

Great insight.

its not an insight its what gonna be an obsevation...cleveland win going away...but im 0 for 5 at the ponies so....

That's what I'm trying to work on.  A couple of those send me on tilt and I get wreckless.  But ended up just going FG -4, so hopefully it gets right tonight to kick the weekend off. 

The only time trubiski looks somewhat decent is when he’s in comeback mode and they have to play hurry up and he has some freedom 

I don’t think he’ll ever take that next step as a qb, hope I’m wrong , but I hope we throw Pickett in there if this is gonna be a throw away season so he gets the mistakes out of his system right now 

"Tilt" is the enemy.  I know you know that.  Be a machine.  As little emotion as possible.

GL.

I think in about a month the Steelers will realize they should give him a dress rehearsal and Pickett will start playing.

@vanzack

 aye but thats hard when your team is playing...

@vanzack

 Good luck bro

I live in Pittsburgh went to school at Pitt for Kenny Pickett era. People in Pittsburgh want Kenny asap, this could be Mitch’s last game. I’ll be in the browns -3.5 lol