@TEAMx747
I have a question. This is something I see a lot of folks do -- second-guess themselves. This is not a knock on you.
I am just asking your reasoning on not taking this line very early on. You clearly had a feeling on it and it certainly appears to be the sharp side.
You could have got a 7 and even some 7.5s early on. Then when it got bet down to 6.5 you could have taken that. When a line moves away from a key number like 7 that is very important.
Then it moved to 6 which is another key number. Now it has moved off of 6 and even down to 4.5.
Have you considered getting a position early on key numbers or above them when you have a good read on a game?
You can always buy out or hedge away from it if the line moves away from you.
Even if you start a smaller portion early in the week and add to it to build a full position that would work on these numbers.
You could be holding a 7.5 or at least a 7 at this point or at worst a 6.5 or 6.
That is a lot of value around two very key numbers.
If the line opened at 4 or 9 it is not as crucial, etc.
Just something to think about when lines open around or at key numbers and you have a take on them right away.
@Raiders22
No worries at all. I Love good football conversations like this!
You are completely correct about the value of the key numbers, and normally I am known to bet early and play what I like if the number is right. But this game just had too many what ifs for me to lock in early. Mid last week, the rumors about Penix playing to me were just unconfirmed leaks. If Cooper ass was going to start, I wouldn't bet these Falcons at +& or even +7.5. Cooper have looked worse than worse for me these past 2 weeks, an offense that bad can completely ruin a defense ability to stay fresh and make plays. I needed 100% certainty on Penix starting to make this bet. Falcons +5.5 at -109 with Penix and now Tua the backup playing carries way more value to me than a +7 blind gamble on their status. I wouldn't want to be stuck on a Falcons bet at 7 or 7.5 with Cooper, what if the spreads goes up to 9.5 to 10? Because I would not touch the Falcons tonight with Cooper starting with those numbers.
My actual willingness to bet these Falcons tonight are based on the matchups now that the QB's are locked in. Falcons offense finally gets spark to unlock Drake London and Kyle Pitts. On top of that, Packers haven't shown they can run the ball consistently for 2 weeks, and their defense just haven't looked all that impressive.
@TEAMx747
I fully understand. I have ATL +7.5 from opening. But have hedged out with GB -2.5 to essentially set up a middle.
But the reasons are just the opposite of what you think.
EVEN though I think you are correct. My worry is Penix in a new offense on the road with GB hoe opener.
Then I am concerned about Stefanski opening up the offense now that he has Penix and Penix being too eager early.
But BOL 
YTD 7-7
YTD -0.232
1-0 for the day, to say I thought the Dirty birds were going to do the Packers dirty tonight would be the biggest bullshit although the Packers D is nothing to be scared of, and without a decent running game, no offense will be respected. Good start to the week!
Hope Everyone made some money tonight!
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