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THURSDAY NIGHT NFL

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Posted: #1
I understand that there is a 60% chance of snow tomorrow during this game, but I really don't care.  This Total now sits at 33 1/2 which is WAY too low, with or without snow...  The line opened at 37 1/2, which I though was low to begin with and now has dropped significantly due to the weather.   Don't be afraid of the Snow 33 1/2 has a lot of value...  Cleveland and Pittsburgh give up each 20 + points per game and Pittsburgh's defense is drastically different without Palamalu.  Yes I know Cleveland's offense is horrible, but 33 1/2 is really low. 

Steelers/Browns  oV  33 1/3  ***3 Units
 
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Posted: #2
 
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Posted: #3
would a snow storm and high wind change your mind?
 
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Posted: #4
I could not agree more
its really low. too low 
 
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Posted: #5
Completely agree.  I've got the over but at 34. 

PS.  First post cherry popped!
 
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Posted: #6
If its that much too low tease the over to 27 and Cleveland +17?
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by fyugioh:

would a snow storm and high wind change your mind?



I think I addressed that.... But a tornado would
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Wakko4Flacco:

If its that much too low tease the over to 27 and Cleveland +17?




Can't argue that play, but I don't do teasers and very rarely parlay

BOL
 
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Posted: #9
Uriss, it's low not because of the snow, as I believe that can actually help the over, but because of the wind.  I can care less if this game was wet, snowy, or whatever, the wind will be strong which typically leads to unders.  Winds are forecasted to be between 30-35 mph and gusts over 40 mph!!!  The play calling in this game is going to be conservative....lots and lots of running as the coaches do not want to risk easy picks with it being so windy.  This game sets up to be similar to last years season finale between NE and Buff where wind gust hit over 50 mph.  In this game these teams combined for 33 passes and 82 rushes!!!  The total was set at a low of 35 and the final score was 13-0.  Sure with all things there are no guarantees and the over may hit.  We can get special teams TDs and short fields with punters kicking into the wind, but I really think this game goes unders.   The line is set this low for a reason. 
 
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Posted: #10
Also, if you like the over, wait until kickoff where it will be at it's lowest. GL bud
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by CalBear:

Uriss, it's low not because of the snow, as I believe that can actually help the over, but because of the wind.  I can care less if this game was wet, snowy, or whatever, the wind will be strong which typically leads to unders.  Winds are forecasted to be between 30-35 mph and gusts over 40 mph!!!  The play calling in this game is going to be conservative....lots and lots of running as the coaches do not want to risk easy picks with it being so windy.  This game sets up to be similar to last years season finale between NE and Buff where wind gust hit over 50 mph.  In this game these teams combined for 33 passes and 82 rushes!!!  The total was set at a low of 35 and the final score was 13-0.  Sure with all things there are no guarantees and the over may hit.  We can get special teams TDs and short fields with punters kicking into the wind, but I really think this game goes unders.   The line is set this low for a reason. 




Thanks for your input Cal, I understand completely what your saying....But Cleveland doesn't have Shaun Rodgers, no Palmalu for Pitt... But Cleveland is dead last in the NFL in Team defense, and 29th against the run...Mendenhall also averages 5 yards per carry and will have a huge game...Whether this game stays on the ground or not I believe it goes over...Pittsburg is number 1 in the NFL against the run and wind or no wind if Cleveland wants to win this game they are going to HAVE to pass, They are going to attack the secondary that is ranked in the lower teir of the NFL at 17th that is without Palamalu...Pitt will, and should, easily score 21 to 24 points, and I believe Cleveland scores 13+


BOL my friend



BOL
 
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Posted: #12
If the wind is like it is today there would be no way in hell i bet over!  No passing, No FG attempts, and the run D for Pitt is still kick ass!  Mendenhall should get 30+ carries and i dont see the Browns really doing anything.  Steelers 21-0!
 
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Posted: #13
Makes perfect sense that everyone is on the over and the O/U moves lower.  What a bunch of amateurs those Vegas bookmakers are.  They just love handing out their like that.  Maybe they will just drop it to like 20 so everyone can get paid.

Very surprised if this game goes over.
 
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Posted: #14
Thursday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 24. Windy, with a west wind between 26 and 29 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Wind chill values as low as -3. Windy, with a west wind between 23 and 29 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by johnobvious:

Makes perfect sense that everyone is on the over and the O/U moves lower.  What a bunch of amateurs those Vegas bookmakers are.  They just love handing out their like that.  Maybe they will just drop it to like 20 so everyone can get paid.

Very surprised if this game goes over.




Yeah I forgot Vegas can see the future, My mistake


Everyone is on the over Really???  Hmmm
 
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Posted: #16
With that wind I'm locking in the UNDER !!! 
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by johnobvious:

Makes perfect sense that everyone is on the over and the O/U moves lower.  What a bunch of amateurs those Vegas bookmakers are.  They just love handing out their like that.  Maybe they will just drop it to like 20 so everyone can get paid.

Very surprised if this game goes over.




I'll take my chances with a forecast predicted 2 days before it happens, which is now at 50% chance of snow showers with 25mph winds...Pitt will run for 3 TD's by themselves tomorrow alone...


Maybe they will drop it to 20 so us amateurs can get paid, God I hate being an amateur haaaa

GL
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by URISS2302:





Yeah I forgot Vegas can see the future, My mistake


Everyone is on the over Really???  Hmmm


Over is running 71% to 29% right now on Covers.  Yeah, really. 
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by johnobvious:



Over is running 71% to 29% right now on Covers.  Yeah, really. 




Your first mistake is using those figures from covers to determine how much and who is on the total... But I'm the amateur, again those numbers mean nothing either way
 
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Posted: #20
 
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by johnobvious:



Over is running 71% to 29% right now on Covers.  Yeah, really. 



If you knew anything about what is Vegas was thinking you would know that the line opened at 37 1/2 at -110...It is now currently as high as 36 1/2 -110 at some books and is as low as 32 1/2 at some books...So there is your obvious answer to the fact that neither you nor Vegas knows where this total should be tomorrow... I have have value in the over so thats what I'm taking
 
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Posted: #22
And the total will continue to drop from now untill kick off, and I will place more units on it as everyo9ne is playing the under right now, when hearing about the weather
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by johnobvious:

Makes perfect sense that everyone is on the over and the O/U moves lower.  What a bunch of amateurs those Vegas bookmakers are.  They just love handing out their like that.  Maybe they will just drop it to like 20 so everyone can get paid.

Very surprised if this game goes over.




Some Vegas casinos are at 37 right now and some are at 32 1/2...HMMMMMMM    Why is that?  I think Vegas has no idea what the total is going to be tomorrow, and neither do you nor I... My play is based on my own Value, and not a pre-determined forecast nor past games that happened to go under in bad weather or wind conditions.  But, I have a lot of friends who are on the under as well calling it a lock, we shall see...
 
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Posted: #24
good luck, me too
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by URISS2302:





Some Vegas casinos are at 37 right now and some are at 32 1/2...HMMMMMMM    Why is that?  I think Vegas has no idea what the total is going to be tomorrow, and neither do you nor I... My play is based on my own Value, and not a pre-determined forecast nor past games that happened to go under in bad weather or wind conditions.  But, I have a lot of friends who are on the under as well calling it a lock, we shall see...


I doubt that is the case because lots of people would go for the middle, plus the big gap with the teasers.

I hope you are not giving unauthenticated information here because this could mislead lots of people. Could you name two casino or sport book that offer these two different lines.

Thx


The first and greatest victory is to conquer self
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