Thursday Night Football ..... Week 14

This isn't about between the lines. This is about betting.

And stats can be very powerful predictors. If you don't believe that than you're not objective. Stats are why I have been winning money for years betting against the Bills and Dolphins the week after they play each other. It must be the biggest coincidence ever that in wins every single year.

you think its 99% luck because you ignore available tools and let the house keep their advantage by ignoring meaningful trends. Disagree with me all you would like, but you are wrong that they don't mean something.

Go back the last 15 years and tell me the Bills and Dolphins' record ATS the week after they play each other. Then tell me that is ANOTHER coincidence. What will it take to convince you? 100-0 in a 100 game run? Would you ignore a stat like that too?

Teams that are coming of 5 straight ATS losses and a straight up loss in their last game are 23-1 ATS in their following game. If you are right and its all about luck, one would have to be pretty lucky repeatedly.

I can only lead you to water. I can't make you drink

sorry bets this one came back to kick your ass in sideways.  loved going opposite here but good for u stickin w your initial pick as foolish as it turned out whether u knew colts were on the road or not.

Tonight was another coincidence for this "meaningless" trend I am sure.

Tough to grow as a capper when you deny good information.

"kicked my ass in sideways"? i lost 3-Units... not exactly earth shattering... "as foolish as it turned out"? the Titans MOOSED the shit out of the Colts here, its not like i got crushed by 20+... it was a tough, last second loss... ill live and learn from it

your attempts to talk trash to me in a subtle manner are annoying... atleast other people who dont like me are just blunt about it... you constantly critique my picks and writeups, which is perfectly fine, but its quite obvious you have something against me, which is also perfectly fine... what i dont like, is the fact that you beat around the bush... i have no problem being 'civil' with you, but you havent ever had 1 positive thing to say... its as if your antagonizing me from a far, like your afraid to be direct and blunt, yet you still take cheap shots every chance you get.... maybe i should pop-up this week in your weekly thread and critique your picks, and bash your writeups, and exploit your 'typos', and then when you lose, i'll comeback to kick you while your down, and point out the games where I picked the opposite of you, and Won... Very Childish and Very Annoying!

Dont get me wrong Splooge, I think youre very knowledgable and definitely raise some great points. I have no problem discussing my picks with you, as I think you give me solid feedback... It just seems to me like you'll always play the 'devils advocate' and it really pisses me off that you literally couldnt wait to rub this loss in for me... it wasnt a "huge" loss for me, units wise, but it definitely stung bc of the manner that I lost in (being literally a last second cover).... Now I gotta come in here and read your shit-talking reply less than 10 minutes after the game!? (game ended at 11:35, and your post was at 11:42 ) .... C'mon man!! Youre better than that man... Ya dont see me rubbing in your losses immediately after the game! 

..... I wait atleast an hour or two  

in all honesty BigNiner, between 90% of covers.com being on Indy, plus your overwhelming Trend, it really made me think twice about this pick... I just couldnt see myself betting against Manning in this spot, I still feel like I made the 'right' bet, i just lost... it happens... But with that said, Im very interested in more of your Trends... Ive gone public in saying that i dislike and dont use Trends, but certain ones are VERY Overwhelming and VERY Telling and certain Trends can definitely be really useful when Handicapping games. Id like to hear some of your trends for this upcoming week, can you PM me or let me know where you post your Trends... Thanks BigNiner and I appreciate your contributions to this forum and my thread!!

That comment wasn't directed toward you bro. I myself don't blindly bet trends unless they are just so impossible to ignore. Tonight was one of those cases. I try to share info like that with the board when I become aware of it; it's just a shame some idiots choose to bash rather than think about what the odds of certain trends to be coincidental. People who don't want to learn how to become better never will.

You are a solid capper and I try to post when I have an angle I feel can help. After all, that is why we are supposed to be here, to help one annother

nah I know you didnt direct those comments towards me but Ive been reading your "back and forth" with the other posters and I liked the points you brought up... Like I said, I dont really follow trends, as most of them are 29-9, which is "decent" percentages in our favor, but its the 23-1 trends or the 36-0 "overwhelming" trends that im interested in.... Id definitely like to hear some more "overwhelming" trends, if you have any... Let me know man! thanks again

Some trends that Ive liked so far thisyr... the one about Andy Reid being 13-0 coming off the bye week, as he held up that undefeated record but he didnt cover the 3 pt spread but its a really solid trend nevertheless... Matty Ice being 19-1 @ home in his last 20 home games... or those recent trends on New England not losing to a Division opponent twice in one year or Belichick being undefeated at home 'forever', lol... All of these trends have been VERY telling stats... as well as the trend you posted here tonight, these are REALLY Solid numbers and Id like to see A LOT more like them!!!

if my grandma had a dick she'd be my grandma. everything from penalties, turnovers, and missed calls went indys way and they still only won by 2! gg tennessee way to cover!

I was saying same thing about a bad beat when it was 14-0 Colts w/ 2 ref aided 3rd down conversions both resulting in TDs then followed up by a non call on Brit on 3rd on a clear pass int on Indy.  These were crucial calls and backbreaking calls on Tenn took the crowd out of the game and the game looked all but over but somehow the tides turned.....an amazing come from behind classic backdoor cover.  Congrats to the very few Titan backers

Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:

Once someone informed you that the Colts were on the road, and not at home as you had originally thought, you should have cancelled your wager right then and there.

Leran from your mistakes, it will help you in the long run  

Noone "informed" me that they werent @ Home... My Picks ARE NOT made during my writeup, my picks are made WAY BEFORE my writeup. I made a typo, all I said was "the Colts are @ Home"... That was the ENTIRE mistake!!! I never said, "Titans are in a hostile Road environment" or "crowd noise will be a BIG factor for the Colts" or "Peyton wont drop another game @ Home!"... If the Colts being "@ Home" was a BIG factor in my decision, i wouldve hammered that point! Yet ALL I SAID was "the Colts are @ Home"... Such a compelling argument!!! Give it a rest.... Im gonna

Always sucks to watch full game and then lose in last possible second

Takes a real piece of shit to come into someone elses thread and celebrate their loss.  Its dicks like you and Train69 that come into people's threads and start shit.  Start your own thread douche bag and keep your negative bullshit out of here.

Listen here prospect....i'll come into Bets thread, your thread or which ever thread I choose to post on and say whatever the hell I want to that is within the scope of the covers forum manifesto.  The post you quoted from me has nothing to do w/ Bets and was in response to another poster on his thread if you paid any attention.  The post has nothing to do with celebrating a loss but simply pointed out the fact that it could have been a bad beat for the Titans just as easily if they didn't get that last score for the reasons I indicated.  Bets is a big boy he can speak his mind to me whenever he wants and he does. I start plenty of my own threads and don't need to answer to tailin chumps like yourself that come and go like the seasons so save it junior.

Train69 has never come into my thread n bashed, infact hes been mad cool towards me... Splooge and I may not see eye to eye but the guys a very quality handicapper and always has a weekly thread... he might be a dick sometimes but hes been hitting 80% lately so i guess hes allowed to throw his weight around for now... lol, Splooge called u Junior above