Thursday Night Football ..... Week 14

Well I finished off Wk13 with a 3-4 Record, but I managed to be +1-Unit, which was really "even money" bc of the Juice... Im looking to improve on that mark this week...

My Seasons Record now sits at 57-38-2 YTD

Thursday Night Football:

Indy Colts -3 vs Tennessee Titans:  I absolutely HATE betting with the Covers Consensus being at 89% .... I just CANNOT fathom Peyton Manning having ANOTHER Poor Performance! Hes @ Home here, on Primetime, against a Very Well Known Division Opponent, coming off arguably his Worst 3 Game stretch of his career. The Colts just signed Dominic Rhodes bc it doesnt look good for Joseph Addai to comeback this week and Donald Brown is a little banged up, along with Mike Hart tweaking his ankle again... Dominic Rhodes played in this offense for YEARS alongside Edgerrin James and should be able to be plugged in seemlessly, with Javarris James spelling him, but Rhodes will DEFINITELY play on ALL Passing downs, as hes been a GREAT Receiving threat for years. Austin Collie "might" be coming back this week, which would be HUGE bc Peyton LOVES his Slot WR and clearly, him and Blair White arent on the same page. Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon looked pretty good and JTamme's picked up the Offense pretty quickly. The acquisition of Dominic Rhodes "could be" a HUGE Signing, if hes still in game shape bc he knows this offense in and out... I am worried about Chris Johnson running ALL-OVER this AWFUL Rush defense, but Kerry Collins is a complete statue in the pocket and I could see Freeney and Mathis having one or more of their "typical" strip-sacks, forcing the fumble n creating opportunities for their Defense to make plays. Theres currently a dispute about who should be starting this week between Kenny Britt and Randy Moss, based on production alone, Britts having a MONSTER season, while Moss has been terrible since hes come to Tennessee. Im not quite sure yet on how this will effect their gameplan, since both WR's are tremendous talents and could impact this game single handedly, but this could also end up hurting the team, bc whoever does NOT start, will be Pissed Off on the sideline and could create some controversy and become a negative influence on the team... We shall see, but I do not see this situation benefitting the Titans as theyre already is disarray... Both of these teams could be described as a "Mess" but the Colts are an injury riddled team who is "used to" Winning and fully believes that they're going to make the playoffs, while this Titans team is a mess bc theres a dis-connect between the players and the coach and their season isnt going anywhere, and they know it! The Titans have the "recipe" to defeat the Colts, a solid Running Game, with a veteran QB and an alright Defense to rattle Manning, but the Colts will play with Pride and Heart and they CANNOT afford to lose this Division Game!! I would buy this line down to -2.5 but im currently getting the -3 at -105, so buying it down would be -135, so its NOT worth it! Im worried about being with the betting public here, but the Colts are gonna bounceback this week and on a short week, ill take the smarter QB, and the team playing HARD for a Playoff Spot... Im making this another BIG Thursday Night Play.... (Laying 3-Units!!)

Wish me LUCK here Guys!!!

Those With Me!!! 

Those Against Me!!! 

 .... I said the same thing in the thread you created about Dominic Rhodes, I think this is going to be a HUGE difference maker in this game!!!

GL

Wow... Good point lamrrj... The Colts are @ Tennessee, I fixed it! My bad... But with that said, I still like the Colts here, I do hate them making the Titans an Inner-Division Home Dog but I think this is a GREAT Spot for the Colts to right the ship. Theyre very familiar with these Titans and i think Kerry Collins will look like Peyton Manning Circa Weeks 11-12-13.... LoL...

I dunno, well see... Thanks LAMRRJ for pointing out my flaw! Best of Luck to you and whatever side youre on!!! 

sometimes you shouldn't read into the lines so much and over think it.. look what happened on mnf with da pats.. and i'm not comparing mnf with tnf...

hey bro.. u said it OPENED @ 1???  Show me where it opened @ -1 for da colts???????

Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

Colts are 1-3 ATS @ Tennessee the last 4 years. 

Stats and Trends don't mean shit with sports betting bro.. no disrespecting 2 ya..

Quote Originally Posted by Splooge:

I'm not hatin here Bets but I gotta point out the obvious.  You broke down the entire game and bet 3 units @ -105 so your action is in and you thought you made the play based on Indy playing at home on Thursday night.  Don't get me wrong here but when Lamrjjr pointed this out to you on this thread you respond back w/ Wow good point...with that said I still like the Colts here...  Huh????  Sorta sounds like you would not backtrack regardless.  There is a 6 point swing when going from one field to the other possibly a little more as Indy always has a bigger home field advantage in dome w/ noise so say 6.5 to 7 pt difference and this doesnt sway your thinking at all?? Is it being stubborn or the ego getting in the way of saying holy shit I really fucked up here and should buy this one back.  It's a honest mistake and one that I think a lot us have made but after doing so realize how we messed up and bought the action back since we left out a pretty key factor in capping the game.....home field advantage!!  You saw -3 Indy at home and said wow that's an easy one i'm all over it for 3 units -105...then it's pointed out that the game is on the road and the first word of your response says it all...."Wow" omg i just laid 3 units on Colts thinking they were home and actually considered buying it down to 2.5.   Colts being home to you had to be a huge factor in playing them at -3 -105 how could it not I think the world would be playing them in that situation.  The first thing I'm thinking and saying in this situation is how fast I could buy my bet back.  I guess I'm the only one seeing this being the only one to comment. Really confused how this glaring factor of home field advtg has zero impact on your analysis of the game

I understand where youre coming from Splooge... But lemme explain real quick how I choose my games... First i write out every single game for that week, written in this format "Indy @ Tenn +3" "Miami @ NYJ -5.5" etc... So once I have all the games written out, i put a check mark next to the teams that i like aka my "leans". Then, after Ive selected my "Leans", I then begin to do some research and write notes and comments next to the team that I like. During this procedure im taking A LOT of mental notes, while making some actual notes as well. Im fully aware which team is home and which team is away during this process as well... Once im done doing research, I determine which teams are worthy of being "Picks" as opposed to just "Leans"... At this point, after I have my "Picks" selected, I begin my write up here... Now in this particular instance, I made a minor mistake in my writeup. I just glanced over at my notes and began writing... Take a good look at my ENTIRE writeup and youll CLEARLY see that I only referenced the Colts being "@ Home" ONE time, infact if you removed the "@ Home" from my writeup, I do not reference the hometeam again.... I could understand your argument if I constantly said, "They wont lose this Division game @ Home" or "the Home crowd will be pumped for this" or "Peyton wont lose again @ Home" but I LITERALLY only referenced the Colts "@ Home" ONE TIME, which was clearly a mistake.... Of course the hometeam is a BIG factor when handicapping any game, but my decision was already made WAY before this writeup was created and when that decision was made, I was FULLY aware of the hometeam.... Typing the Colts "@ Home" was the mistake here.... Not my 3-Unit Play on the Colts -3!!

Keep nit-picking my thread though Splooge