I was a little full of myself for having been 4-0 on the bowls picking
the sides right and going Over on the SDst/ULaf and I really thought FIU
would play inspired football playing in their own backyard.
Wow, was I
wrong! Seriously, FIU should not have been a 4 pt fav anyway. That game
was ugly to watch. Terrible offense. Really awful play calling with
pass after pass (FIU) thrown to the line of scrimmage. Seriously, 1 yard
passes? Horrible punting game for FIU. The announcers were pissing me off because they kept calling it a great offensive struggle.BULL F'N SHIT. What game were THEY watching? That was one of the worst two-sided offensive displays I've ever seen. Those QB's couldn't hit the side of a barn. Offensive penalties galore. At one point I was thinking those teams were doing a better job going backward than forward.
I AM very grateful for at least
seeing the writing on the wall and jumping on Mar +3 for the 2H to erase
my FIU -4 loser, but it didn't make me enjoy the game any more, that's
for sure. Watching
that game last night was like biting into a sour, rotten apple filled with shit....left a really
bad taste in my mouth. What a crap-fest game....
Yech.
And then it occurred to me...the dogs are kicking ass in the bowls...
again The dogs are 3-1ATS and isn't that how Bowls tend to go year after year early on?
Long layoff? Teams out of sync? Dogs more to prove? Early bowl
games featuring the not-so-great teams so parity a real factor?
The best football year I ever had was some years back when I knew zippity-doo-da about college football (not that I know so much now) and had this crazy idea to just bet dogs. I sent by Western Union $100 to an offshore (didn't have a computer back then) and called in my plays every day (I can't imagine not having a computer now). I was determined to bet dogs, dogs, dogs. I hit my first bet and it was a $100 parlay with Dog to Over in what I believe was the Motor City Bowl. I started making big bets on dogs and dog to dog parlays.
Know what happened? I turned my $100 in $14 K! I started giving some back...so in the end I cashed out exactly $10K....It was the year that Dan Reeve's Atl went into Min and beat them to win
the NFC championship. Those Dirty Birds! I remember that part at least very clearly because I
dumped $3K of my winnings on Minny. I was a heavy duty stoner back then so a lot of my memory of the bowl games is a fog except that I really kicked ass. I got sent a Priority Envelope filled with $100 Am Ex Traveler's Checks.
The point of my story (true story) is that even as a know-nothing idiot back then, I kicked major ass purely on the theory that dogs should be bet in the bowls. I'm going to refine this idea by saying perhaps only in the earlier bowls AND unless it is very obvious that the Fav is
clearly much better. Later on when the "big boys" make their appearance, maybe it's more a different story. There are SOO many bowl games and SOOO many teams playing...many teams are quite mediocre so the assumption that we are seeing the cream of the crop in college football in bowl games is just wrong. Add in the layoff and it's not hard to understand offenses struggle. Of course the dogs in that situation
should rack up a higher tally.
In later years, with studying teams and then trying to outguess and out-think a very simpleton but plausible idea of betting dogs, I tended to bet more favs and
of course I never did as well since. I remember I use to look at how team A beat team B, team B lost to team C, so Team A should beat Team C. NOT! LOL
Now I think I want to give my old idea another shot, just for the hell of it. I'll look at the analysis and unless I see a very clear and lopsided advantage, I will take the dog.
I initially liked TCU (ranked team vs non ranked team) but now I'm thinking I should just close my eyes and go with the dog.
Two good defenses, that should favor the dog if there's not a lot of scoring. Both teams only give up about 20 pts a game.
It's a down year for TCU, and I'm not talking about their losses. I recall they even struggled against Wyo and BYU. That's not the mark of a dominant team. AND, they've been money-burners going 5-6-1 ATS. It's an up year for LT. I'm sure they are going to be the team that is more psyched and excited with an opportunity to beat a ranked team. They are 10-2 ATS!
Will TCU be all that excited to perform in a non BCS bowl? Besides a bowl win, what do they get? I just don't see huge motivation there.
LOL, consider this an experiment. I am ahead enough to play around....
LT +9.5 1 Unit
LT +15
Under 62
Hou Tex Pk 6 pt teaser 1 unit to win 1.8 units