Those Colts corners are YOUNG, people...

And despite the "experience" the rest of the Colts have from their '06 run and victory, that was WITH the services and Herculean efforts of one Bob Sanders. Granted, Indy is FAST on defense, and quick to the ball as well, but anybody who has watched the Saints offense this year --- when they are really clicking --- can agree that Indy won't stop them for more than a quarter at most if at all. Anybody remember the New England game? Yes, it was played in the friendly confines of the Superdome, however, that game wasn't even close, and was decidedly one-sided. Considering how much trouble the Pats give Indy, I believe that this point/who-beat-who is VALID in this instance. On a neutral site, this looks like a very even game to me --- save for the all-important turnover ratio. How anyone can make this line anything but a Pick'em is beyond me. But folks much smarter than I set these lines, and I realize this fact.

Getting back to the title of this thread, if you remember, all the boys on the morning shows on CBS/FOX, ESPN, the NFL Network did all year long was PRAISE Indy brass for drafting and plugging in those young corners, always gushing about how they play well beyond their years etc etc etc. All I know is that Indy does not have a Darren Sharper in their defensive backfield. Now, factor in that New Orleans' success has been predicated upon an opportunistic secondary and more recently on a fierce pass-rush, I will state with complete confidence that if the Saints can win the turnover battle, then THEY WILL WIN THIS GAME.

Why, you may ask?

For the simple fact that neither D will stop the opposing offense for long, and once the dam breaks, then it will be a back and forth game, and whomever has the ball THE MOST, ie the most possessions, will very likely emerge victorious. Indy does not run the ball well, they were 30th in the NFL. This could hurt them in the big game. meanwhile, New Orleans CAN run the ball effectively when they decide to, especially on the edges; Pierre Thomas came on strong at the end of the '08-'09 season, and he's only gotten better over time. Point being, if you let the Saints DB's sit back and play the pass 60-70-% of the time, THEY WILL CREATE TURNOVERS. Of this I am convinced.

I realize that Manning is brilliant, hell, he's like having a coach on the field, and that he will probably go down in history as the finest signal-caller to ever lace 'em up. But Mr. Brees is a WITCH. He's every bit the competitor that Peyton is. and I for one have never seen that familiar look of frustration that often graces Peyton's face after a 3-and-out or deflection for an INT. You all know what I am talking about. Eli's body language is even worse. Perhaps it runs in the family. But I digress...

Listen, Indy is favored by nearly a TD now, and if you don't believe that the Saints feel slighted by this development, then think again. New Orleans has absolutely nothing to lose, and in my experience, those are the most dangerous opponents. The young WRs on Indy, namely Collie and Garcon, who have been picking up the slack in the absence of Anthony Gonzalez in particular, are very nice players. But Brees has a very big, very fast homerun hitter in Devery Henderson, a top-notch possession/red-zone target in Marques Colston, and now Lance Moore is healthy once again. This has been Shockey's best season in 2-3 years (yes, Dallas Clark is superior, no shit), and then there is the X-factor, Reggie Bush --- yet another big play-type player who can take it to the house from anywhere on the gridiron, form scrimmage or returning punts.

I realize that very big "syndicate" $$$ moved this line initially, but now that there is a chance for a "middle", and Freeney is likely a no-go, these same large bettors would be fools not to cover their largest bets should the line move any higher.

Anyone that thinks that Indy will just "win" bc Peyton is under center needs to look a bit deeper into this match-up in my opinion. So for the record, I am on the Saints +6 and that is that.

Comments welcome... and GL to all!

 

 I agree rollmaetro,

 Anyone who thinks that the Saints don't have the talent to compete with Indy has another thing coming.... Indy is due for one of those games where Peyton gets the deer in headlights look on his face after the aformentioned deflected picks and 3 and outs. With the Saints defense having a game under their belt now with all the starters back in place look for an inspired effort from them holding Indy to 2-3 TDs in this one. That won't be enough to beat the prolific offense of the Saints IMHO.

-saints may or may not win the turnover battle... both teams are "oportunistic"

-brees may or may not choke.

- pats game is like saying OMG did u see Saints struggling with falcons or tampa??? (pats vs colts is like playing a huge divition rival)

-You dont seem to know a lot about the colts D

- bullit and bethea allow the colts to do the same they did when sanders was playing.. just watch the games.

-Henderson, colston, moore are all good, but so are Wayne, Clark and collie an garcon are up there to.

saints may or may not win this game but:

he he... underestimating colts running game because they choose not to =

All good points statfreak. Props to you...

However, I did forget to mention the Saints' young emerging WR Robert Meachem, who ended the season in a flourish and has done everything the Saints have called on him to do, namely catch touchdowns. That's all he did the last 2/3 of the season looking back.

Regarding Indy's running game, can we agree that we simply DON'T KNOW how good their running game is since they "decide" not to make the run a large part of their offense? That said, I am confident that New Orleans will be able to mix the run in effectively as they have done nearly all year long. Brees' passing accumen keeps run D's honest, and there always seem to be holes for 4 yards here, and 5-6 yards there...

 

And yes, I expect a huge game from Dallas Clark, but that would also suggest that the Saints' secondary would keep everything in front of them in an attempt to NOT give up the "big play" to either Wayne or Garcon in particular. Clark will move the chains and probably catch a TD or two, but if Peyton puts it up for grabs downfield, Neither Collie nor garcon has the size to just go up and "get it" the same way Meachem, Colston, and Henderson have all proven they can do, especially in the endzone.

Great discussion guys, keep it coming, all opinions are valid, we all have our preferred angles in this fascinating match-up of offensive juggernauts... should be a barn-burner!

 

I'm wondering if they will have a prop bet for how many times Reggie Bush fumbles.  He's a great asset to the team, but boy, he has his braindead momements.

He is a great concern for me when I think about leaning towards N. O.

Then I think, who do I like with 10 mins. left in the game with a MUST score.  Peyton just wills that team into the end zone.  Even if you leave him 38 seconds, your in danger.

Saints

I hear you cooler, but as a die-hard Washington fan, I watched Brees do the impossible against my own Redskins --- we were less than a minute away from knocking off, at that time, the undefeated Saints. Brees made me a believer on that day;  I was already aware of Peyton's ability to get his team in position for the win/tie late in the 4th quarter... both are premier QBs of course, and both will have good games imo.

nice writeup...

You hit on some key points... Manning has no where near the running game he had in 06'.. and the Colts are not even attempting to run the ball more than 20 times in a game... Being the opportune defense the Saints are, if Peyton chucks the rock 40-50 times on Sunday the Saints have a great shot at getting some tipped balls and picking him 2-3 times.. Colts defense is also not the same unit on the road and already got burned in Miami earlier this season when they gave up 200+ yards on the Ground, but Peyton carved up a weak Miami secondary and got the W... As we have seen in past Colt playoff performances, the Chargers and Pats have laid the blueprint to beating Manning and Indy.. simply run the ball effectively 20-30 times ( which the saints have done this year avg 4.5 yards a clip) and throw it about 35 times...do not try and beat Manning at his own game, because you will not win...

The Saints have the running game to stay balanced on offense... But it is really up to the play calling of Sean Payton, he can get very pass happy at times, and began to run the ball less and less as the season progressed, running the ball only 11 times in the loss to Dallas and throwing it 45... play calling will be key to the game sunday...

Drew Breez, has had a better statistical year then Peyton. Breez, has thrown for 9 td's & 0 picks following a game where he failed to pass for at least 200 yards. He threw for only 197 last week against Minny.. Another pivotal stat i uncovered was the Colts were statistically the worst 3rd down defense in the NFL... they were the only team to give up over 100 made 3rd down conversions at about a 45 % clip... Yes, they have been a bend but don't break defense but this stat is alarming considering they are playing the # 1 ranked offense in the Saints, and could have trouble getting off the field on 3rd down.. a lot of interesting angles in this game, but the Key for the Saints to win is to remain balanced.. they have the playmakers at the WR and RB to beat the Colts, they just need the right gameplan...

Thanks Thekidmc11

 ...and I don't have to tell you that you raised some fine points yourself, especially the Colts defensive mediocrity on 3rd down. It's little known key stats like that one where good cappers (such as yourself, I would imagine) find an "edge" --- to wit, that one key stat that helps substantiate/validate the side you choose. And you are correct, Payton developed such unwavering confidence in Brees that his play-calling became MUCH pass-happier as the season went on as I remember, I actually had Dallas the week they played the Saints where Sean Payton abandoned the run almost entirely. I don't expect the same shoddy play-calling on sunday, nor do you I, sounds like.

I am assuming you are on the Saints+chalk then?

GL to us

  Yea i am liking the Saints as well...

I am just hesitant to trust Sean Payton in this big spot... this is unknown territory for him and his team, but i feel like they are the hungrier team and want it more.. Manning, is the best but will simply not be able to win the game by himself.. Dominic Rhodes and Addai played a huge role in the Colts 06' run, rushing for a combined 190 yards on the ground in their win over the Bears in the Superbowl..A lot of people are saying this is a better Defense then what they had in 06', but i feel they havn't been truly tested by 2 rookie QBs in Flacco and Sanchez..

     The Saints really have an edge on paper as a better all around team.. as they are better on kick and punt returns, commit fewer turnovers per game, and give up less rushing yards per game.. The Saints will keep everything in front of them on Defense and make Manning underneath them to death.. I just can't see the Colts winning the game if they are not getting any big plays and are throwing the ball 45+ times with the way the Saints have forced turnovers throughout the year...

i think the saints can hang ther 0 is full of play makers & the colts D is leeky on 3rd down lets not over think this the saints ar fer real  dont drink the colts cool aid

Agreed, this is a HUGE spot for Sean Payton, but I feel like if he trusts his team, and the guys execute, they can get it done. And with regard to BALT & the NYJ, those are two teams who live and die by running the ball and were just as one-dimensional on offense running the football as the Colts are throwing the ball.

So... we shall see if the old axiom holds true: "Championship teams are those that can run the football and stop the run" (but I suppose in this case, stop the PASS, heh heh heh)... man is this a different NFL than even 7-8 years ago...

cheers

agree with your point of view rollmaestro...

a lot has been said about saints defensive gameplan, not so much about the colts one... what do u think will be their game plan to stop brees??

will the drop 7 dbs and also force them to beat them running, figuring the may have the speed to get down in time to make the tackle??

will they try to prevent the big play and put pressure with the front 4 and some blitzes (i know Freeney may not play or may be limited, but i think Brock is alrigh and almost sure freeney will play at least on 3rd down, and even if hes not efective he still works as a decoy and puts pressure).

Indeed statfreak, the Saints' defensive gameplan is not exactly a secret per se, Gregggg Williams basically came right out and said they want to hit Manning early and often, just as they did to Warner and of course Favre. While I admire Williams' candor and confidence, we must remember that we are talking about Peyton Manning here, the least sacked QB in the NFL. We will see if New Orleans can duplicate their stellar pass-rushing performance one more time on sunday, but getting to Peyton is easier said than done. I will be looking for the Saints to bat/deflect as many of Peyton's passes as they can, no surprise there. Any more than 2-3 sacks will be a triumph for N.O.

As for the Colts' gameplan regarding slowing down/disrupting Drew Brees' rhythm on offense, I'm not really sure to be honest. I give Indy's D a ton of credit this year and in the postseason especially, and they are doing it without Sanders --- but on sunday, Freeney's availability will certainly be limited, as you stated above. Mathis and Bethea are terrors, as is Brock, everyone can agree on this. But they will have to play smart, nearly flawless football to appreciably stop the Saints offense in their tracks or force more than a couple 3 & outs. I don't expect Indy to drop 7 DBs, at least not very often, but I DO expect them to blitz on 3rd downs & >5 yards or so just about every time because of the simple equation ---> Brees + time = 1st downs --- or worse. He and Manning truly are "birds of a feather" imo.

Anyway, we have the rest of the week to listen to the pundits postulate on how Indy will stop Brees/New orleans will slow down Manning... but do yourself a favor and check out Dennis Green's sons' blog; he's smart as a whip and I have the utmost respect for his viewpoints/opinions...

Bravo Bravo Bravo, another insightful and meaningful thread.

i love that podcast with dennis green son...

Why do you come in here Losing these  fols money with this garbage ?

Okay wait a minute ! Strike that last comment and an apoligy is in order ' I apoligize , Every one has their opinion I just disagree . I'm not telling u who to put the money on just sayin I dont think the Saints are ready yet. and i also don't think The Colts are a juggernaut .I hate it when people build them up making them sound as if they don't make mistakes .Hell they make mistakes every week ,They just overcome their mistakes . So maybe the game  should be looked at in a way that  you could go back and see whom has over come more mistakes? who has had more comebacks ? who has had more experience ? Who can think with a calm head and make the right  thoughts  in a clutch situation ? Who   is under rated? Who is over rated? who makes the game what it is today ? and why ? who has been  able to recover from adversity ?how tough man for man is one team against another and how have they matched in the past ?who plays good in the rain ?  who doesn't ?  Factor in sokme things if you want to analyze a game  . All I am saying is that I don't think it takes much . Colts win by more than -6

rollmaestro ...please dont base your opinion on what drew brees did to the skins push you to put your roll on the saints

only four of 20 teams making their 1st SB appearance against a team that has been there before have won

Good writeup you bring about some very valid points----

These teams are evenly matched up, sure the Colts are good, but so are the Saints---

In fact in reality Orleans can score quicker and in more surges---

ALl things being equal if both QBS are RED HOT, there is no question that BREES is capable of scoring more than Manning if thats the case-
When BREES is on, he is the most accurate QB in the WORLD hands down, no questions about that--
Look at what he did to ZONA< pats earlier and some other teams, he is downright dirty.

At last an insighful thread on the SB. My take FWIW:

Saints were fortunate to get 5 TOs from the Vikes to get here(barely). Can't see PM giving the game away like BF. Can the Colts cover 5+? Probably, but it ain't (no pun) gonna be easy.

 broadway, sammy, copag, statfreak, even Oscar the Grouch...

So many threads here always seem to start to resemble a conspiracy theory thesis when the SB finally rolls around, I just thought I'd simply write-down all of the thoughts that were quickly piling up in my noodle, after filtering all the info I'd heard/read up to now... I see the Saints line has dropped/is dropping all of a sudden, surely the syndicates have all attempted to catch a massive 2.5pt middle... can you blame them?

and yyepyyep, the final quarter Brees had against my Skins is certainly not the only performance I am using to quantify Brees' "greatness" or whatever, but watching him do it against players I really know and watch week-in, week-out really resonated for me.

Truth be told, I play in a pretty advanced, pretty serious high-$$$ fantasy league so I have been aware of Drew Brees' exploits/stats since he was in San Diego LOL... the guy is a witch, truly...

Best offense these Colts D will face this season,,,,,period and they will have to do it without a 100% healthy Freeney. I don't think they will know what's going to hit them.

 

 

Great point choiOi, like another poster here said, Indy has trouble with high-scoring teams, the Pats and the Bolts are prime examples. I wouldn't be surprised if Brees completed his first 11-12 passes frankly, there is just no reason to believe that Drew will be anything but poised, prepared, and ready to fulfill what he believes is his destiny, I'm quite sure.

Tell me, how do you think the Saints will attempt to use reggie Bush ie how involved will he be from the start of the game? He's really the X-factor (as has been said by many of the talking heads, but it's true) in this match-up, so versatile and explosive; hmmm... I wonder if Indy will choose to either punt the ball away from Bush or perhaps even punt it out of bounds altogether... assuming they have to punt LMFAO