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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    The Patriots are on four weeks of rest!

    «First Previous 456 ... 567 Next Last»
    Achilles1629
    Humchucker
    nature1970
    Shinigami23
    Duderonomy
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    Achilles1629
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 8:18 AM ET #76

    mafioso, i love the angle brotha! Do you think the pats cover that 5 though? That is the question. I follow ya a lot, that is when you post, wish we heard more from ya. Interested to hear your thoughts. As always, thanks amigo.
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    mafioso, i love the angle brotha! Do you think the pats cover that 5 though? That is the question. I follow ya a lot, that is when you post, wish we heard more from ya. Interested to hear your thoughts. As always, thanks amigo.
     
    Humchucker
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 11:53 AM ET #77

    For what it's worth, doesn't everyone look at this line and immediately assume NE covers? It's the previous SB champs Brady plus Belichick at home rested, getting key players back, with an extra week of prep, and needing less than a touchdown to cover?

    Isn't this one of those situations where everyone backs NE betting them against the spread since it's less than a touchdown? My thinking is that if the line were anything between 4 and 7, everyone bets NE ATS, leaving an opportunity for NE to win and not cover the spread and most bettors to lose.

    If the line were say NE-3.5 than the ML odds are better for NE and NE backers might hone in on the ML bet since not as much juice has to be paid. If you wanted to bet NE right now where the line is, you would bet ATS since the odds are terrible for ML.

    Even teasers, most would throw NE in since the sentiment is that NE can't lose this game and +1 or +2 basically gets them to a ML win.

    At the very least I question this line. Same thing happened last week with SEA and MIN, a 5 point favorite that everyone thought would cover, and SEA got the win but failed to cover. The SEA ATS bets all lost, the great odds MIN SU bets lost, and the SEA ML bets (heavily juiced) won. I don't actually know where the majority of the bets were last week, or this week so far, but I could see a similar situation playing out. Makes me think KC or no bet.

    At the very least if I had to tease a side, I would be teasing KC to +12 instead of NE+2.
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    For what it's worth, doesn't everyone look at this line and immediately assume NE covers? It's the previous SB champs Brady plus Belichick at home rested, getting key players back, with an extra week of prep, and needing less than a touchdown to cover?

    Isn't this one of those situations where everyone backs NE betting them against the spread since it's less than a touchdown? My thinking is that if the line were anything between 4 and 7, everyone bets NE ATS, leaving an opportunity for NE to win and not cover the spread and most bettors to lose.

    If the line were say NE-3.5 than the ML odds are better for NE and NE backers might hone in on the ML bet since not as much juice has to be paid. If you wanted to bet NE right now where the line is, you would bet ATS since the odds are terrible for ML.

    Even teasers, most would throw NE in since the sentiment is that NE can't lose this game and +1 or +2 basically gets them to a ML win.

    At the very least I question this line. Same thing happened last week with SEA and MIN, a 5 point favorite that everyone thought would cover, and SEA got the win but failed to cover. The SEA ATS bets all lost, the great odds MIN SU bets lost, and the SEA ML bets (heavily juiced) won. I don't actually know where the majority of the bets were last week, or this week so far, but I could see a similar situation playing out. Makes me think KC or no bet.

    At the very least if I had to tease a side, I would be teasing KC to +12 instead of NE+2.
     
    nature1970
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 1:19 PM ET #78

    Quote Originally Posted by Humchucker:

    For what it's worth, doesn't everyone look at this line and immediately assume NE covers? It's the previous SB champs Brady plus Belichick at home rested, getting key players back, with an extra week of prep, and needing less than a touchdown to cover?

    Isn't this one of those situations where everyone backs NE betting them against the spread since it's less than a touchdown? My thinking is that if the line were anything between 4 and 7, everyone bets NE ATS, leaving an opportunity for NE to win and not cover the spread and most bettors to lose.

    If the line were say NE-3.5 than the ML odds are better for NE and NE backers might hone in on the ML bet since not as much juice has to be paid. If you wanted to bet NE right now where the line is, you would bet ATS since the odds are terrible for ML.

    Even teasers, most would throw NE in since the sentiment is that NE can't lose this game and +1 or +2 basically gets them to a ML win.

    At the very least I question this line. Same thing happened last week with SEA and MIN, a 5 point favorite that everyone thought would cover, and SEA got the win but failed to cover. The SEA ATS bets all lost, the great odds MIN SU bets lost, and the SEA ML bets (heavily juiced) won. I don't actually know where the majority of the bets were last week, or this week so far, but I could see a similar situation playing out. Makes me think KC or no bet.

    At the very least if I had to tease a side, I would be teasing KC to +12 instead of NE+2.

    new England can cover this with a plus 2
    but I don't care to remember how many of these comes down to ne great ability of getting the ball to the opponents 25 and kicking a field goal as time runs out to win the game.... just saying. anything more is even money in my humble opinion
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    Quote Originally Posted by Humchucker:

    For what it's worth, doesn't everyone look at this line and immediately assume NE covers? It's the previous SB champs Brady plus Belichick at home rested, getting key players back, with an extra week of prep, and needing less than a touchdown to cover?

    Isn't this one of those situations where everyone backs NE betting them against the spread since it's less than a touchdown? My thinking is that if the line were anything between 4 and 7, everyone bets NE ATS, leaving an opportunity for NE to win and not cover the spread and most bettors to lose.

    If the line were say NE-3.5 than the ML odds are better for NE and NE backers might hone in on the ML bet since not as much juice has to be paid. If you wanted to bet NE right now where the line is, you would bet ATS since the odds are terrible for ML.

    Even teasers, most would throw NE in since the sentiment is that NE can't lose this game and +1 or +2 basically gets them to a ML win.

    At the very least I question this line. Same thing happened last week with SEA and MIN, a 5 point favorite that everyone thought would cover, and SEA got the win but failed to cover. The SEA ATS bets all lost, the great odds MIN SU bets lost, and the SEA ML bets (heavily juiced) won. I don't actually know where the majority of the bets were last week, or this week so far, but I could see a similar situation playing out. Makes me think KC or no bet.

    At the very least if I had to tease a side, I would be teasing KC to +12 instead of NE+2.

    new England can cover this with a plus 2
    but I don't care to remember how many of these comes down to ne great ability of getting the ball to the opponents 25 and kicking a field goal as time runs out to win the game.... just saying. anything more is even money in my humble opinion
     
    Shinigami23
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 1:35 PM ET #79

    Wow...Ive never seen so many excuses for the Patriots. The Pats lost the last few games simply because their O-Line played awful. They didnt try to lose to avoid the Steelers? Their run game is non existent. They are one dimensional. DBs just need to cover for a few seconds and have faith that the pass rush will get there. KC has that pass rush. Tom Bradys kryptonite = a pass rush. Someone mentioned the last 2 drives of the Superbowl. Yeah he was excellent...because he had all day to throw. Seattle kept rushing 4 and by the 4th quarter their DLine ran out of gas. (missed tripping call gave Seattle defense a short rest as well but thats another story)
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    Wow...Ive never seen so many excuses for the Patriots. The Pats lost the last few games simply because their O-Line played awful. They didnt try to lose to avoid the Steelers? Their run game is non existent. They are one dimensional. DBs just need to cover for a few seconds and have faith that the pass rush will get there. KC has that pass rush. Tom Bradys kryptonite = a pass rush. Someone mentioned the last 2 drives of the Superbowl. Yeah he was excellent...because he had all day to throw. Seattle kept rushing 4 and by the 4th quarter their DLine ran out of gas. (missed tripping call gave Seattle defense a short rest as well but thats another story)
     
    Duderonomy
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 2:57 PM ET #80

    Resting players to end the season has not been a formula for success in recent history... and I don't really buy into the idea that a team rests players when it doesn't have homefield locked up!  The Pats wanted homefield, and they wanted it BAD!  No team benefits from homefield this time of year more than the Patriots...

    This team had a meltdown to end the year... 

    The Dude imbibes
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    Resting players to end the season has not been a formula for success in recent history... and I don't really buy into the idea that a team rests players when it doesn't have homefield locked up!  The Pats wanted homefield, and they wanted it BAD!  No team benefits from homefield this time of year more than the Patriots...

    This team had a meltdown to end the year... 

     
    bpickin
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 3:04 PM ET #81

    Quote Originally Posted by Europa:


    Patriots rarely lost three straight. And in the playoffs, they are 14-3 SU at home under Bill Belichick. 

    Three playoff home losses are, 2 to the Ravens and one to the Jets.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Europa:


    Patriots rarely lost three straight. And in the playoffs, they are 14-3 SU at home under Bill Belichick. 

    Three playoff home losses are, 2 to the Ravens and one to the Jets.

     
    oldwiseone
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 3:08 PM ET #82

    Suuma - agree as I don't see KC getting to 17.  GL
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    Suuma - agree as I don't see KC getting to 17.  GL
     
    Duderonomy
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 3:11 PM ET #83

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkFreaker:

     Chiefs are the most overrated team in NFL right now. Their cupcake schedule...


    Whoops!  Hold the Phone!


    Chiefs played the 14th ranked schedule this year, with 6 games against top 10 opponents, and 7 games against playoff teams...

    Patriots played the 22nd ranked schedule this year, with 2 games against top 10 opponents (fewest of any playoff team) and 3 games against playoff teams...


    Chiefs play in the AFC West (#2 ranked division in football)... and faced the NFC North in interconference play (#3 ranked division in football)

    Patriots play in the AFC East (#5)... and faced the NFC East (#7) in Intercoference play...


    Let's be very very clear!  No team in the playoffs had a more cupcake schedule than New England, with the possible exception of Carolina... but at least Carolina went 15-1 against their cupcake schedule, and didn't blow homefield advantage down the stretch, in spite of their cupcake schedule.

    In case I haven't made myself clear... the term CUPCAKE does apply to one of these teams... and it isn't the Chiefs!
    The Dude imbibes
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    Quote Originally Posted by FunkFreaker:

     Chiefs are the most overrated team in NFL right now. Their cupcake schedule...


    Whoops!  Hold the Phone!


    Chiefs played the 14th ranked schedule this year, with 6 games against top 10 opponents, and 7 games against playoff teams...

    Patriots played the 22nd ranked schedule this year, with 2 games against top 10 opponents (fewest of any playoff team) and 3 games against playoff teams...


    Chiefs play in the AFC West (#2 ranked division in football)... and faced the NFC North in interconference play (#3 ranked division in football)

    Patriots play in the AFC East (#5)... and faced the NFC East (#7) in Intercoference play...


    Let's be very very clear!  No team in the playoffs had a more cupcake schedule than New England, with the possible exception of Carolina... but at least Carolina went 15-1 against their cupcake schedule, and didn't blow homefield advantage down the stretch, in spite of their cupcake schedule.

    In case I haven't made myself clear... the term CUPCAKE does apply to one of these teams... and it isn't the Chiefs!
     
    bpickin
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 3:16 PM ET #84

    The reason these people are picking kc is becaUs they saw 31-0 over Houston. Or whatever it was. Just like bama beats state 38-0 and they don't cover yesterday, kc won't cover either. Kc gonna get busted. B and B don't forget and they will put an behind whooping on kc this weekend.
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    The reason these people are picking kc is becaUs they saw 31-0 over Houston. Or whatever it was. Just like bama beats state 38-0 and they don't cover yesterday, kc won't cover either. Kc gonna get busted. B and B don't forget and they will put an behind whooping on kc this weekend.
     
    TheBlindDog
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 4:00 PM ET #85

    Kc hasn't beat a good qb playing at a high level this year. Let's go over who they have beat:
    Carr×2
    Rivers X2
    Manning getting hurt/// oswiler
    Jones
    Taylor
    Clausen
    Manziel
    Hoyer
    Stafford
    Hoyer///mallet

    None of those wins should impress anyone. Sure taken as a whole it's impressive to win 12 games in the nfl and 11 in a row but against who???

    Now let's look at who the Chiefs couldn't handle:
    Bridgewater
    Rodgers
    Manning
    Cutler
    Dalton

    Where does Brady fit into this mix? Where does BB fit in to this mix? I'm weary of backing kc in this spot. They have made me money all year but not against a qb or team like this.
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    Kc hasn't beat a good qb playing at a high level this year. Let's go over who they have beat:
    Carr×2
    Rivers X2
    Manning getting hurt/// oswiler
    Jones
    Taylor
    Clausen
    Manziel
    Hoyer
    Stafford
    Hoyer///mallet

    None of those wins should impress anyone. Sure taken as a whole it's impressive to win 12 games in the nfl and 11 in a row but against who???

    Now let's look at who the Chiefs couldn't handle:
    Bridgewater
    Rodgers
    Manning
    Cutler
    Dalton

    Where does Brady fit into this mix? Where does BB fit in to this mix? I'm weary of backing kc in this spot. They have made me money all year but not against a qb or team like this.
     
    KEYWEST
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 4:10 PM ET #86

    Quote Originally Posted by Duderonomy:



    Whoops!  Hold the Phone!


    Chiefs played the 14th ranked schedule this year, with 6 games against top 10 opponents, and 7 games against playoff teams...

    Patriots played the 22nd ranked schedule this year, with 2 games against top 10 opponents (fewest of any playoff team) and 3 games against playoff teams...


    Chiefs play in the AFC West (#2 ranked division in football)... and faced the NFC North in interconference play (#3 ranked division in football)

    Patriots play in the AFC East (#5)... and faced the NFC East (#7) in Intercoference play...


    Let's be very very clear!  No team in the playoffs had a more cupcake schedule than New England, with the possible exception of Carolina... but at least Carolina went 15-1 against their cupcake schedule, and didn't blow homefield advantage down the stretch, in spite of their cupcake schedule.

    In case I haven't made myself clear... the term CUPCAKE does apply to one of these teams... and it isn't the Chiefs!
    Hands down this is the best most accurate post of this whole thread.  Well said
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    Quote Originally Posted by Duderonomy:



    Whoops!  Hold the Phone!


    Chiefs played the 14th ranked schedule this year, with 6 games against top 10 opponents, and 7 games against playoff teams...

    Patriots played the 22nd ranked schedule this year, with 2 games against top 10 opponents (fewest of any playoff team) and 3 games against playoff teams...


    Chiefs play in the AFC West (#2 ranked division in football)... and faced the NFC North in interconference play (#3 ranked division in football)

    Patriots play in the AFC East (#5)... and faced the NFC East (#7) in Intercoference play...


    Let's be very very clear!  No team in the playoffs had a more cupcake schedule than New England, with the possible exception of Carolina... but at least Carolina went 15-1 against their cupcake schedule, and didn't blow homefield advantage down the stretch, in spite of their cupcake schedule.

    In case I haven't made myself clear... the term CUPCAKE does apply to one of these teams... and it isn't the Chiefs!
    Hands down this is the best most accurate post of this whole thread.  Well said
     
    TheBlindDog
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 4:20 PM ET #87

    Quote Originally Posted by Duderonomy:

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkFreaker:

     Chiefs are the most overrated team in NFL right now. Their cupcake schedule...
    Whoops!  Hold the Phone!Chiefs played the 14th ranked schedule this year, with 6 games against top 10 opponents, and 7 games against playoff teams..


    Hello!!! Hold the line please. Let's look at those 7 games. 2 of those wins came against the Texans. Hardly a 'playoff' team. before they beat the Texans they had only beat one playoff team since holloween. that was the Broncos with manning imploding. Their other win against a playoff team? They beat jones playing for the steelers, not that impressive.

    So of they 7 playoff teams they played they beat
    Texans X2 (hoyer///Mallet then just hoyer)
    Steelers (w/ jones)
    Broncos (w/ manning hurt throwing 4ints)

    Ehh not impressed. None of what they did this year leads me to believe they will do anything more then backdoor cover this game at most and I'm not looking to wager on that.



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    Quote Originally Posted by Duderonomy:

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkFreaker:

     Chiefs are the most overrated team in NFL right now. Their cupcake schedule...
    Whoops!  Hold the Phone!Chiefs played the 14th ranked schedule this year, with 6 games against top 10 opponents, and 7 games against playoff teams..


    Hello!!! Hold the line please. Let's look at those 7 games. 2 of those wins came against the Texans. Hardly a 'playoff' team. before they beat the Texans they had only beat one playoff team since holloween. that was the Broncos with manning imploding. Their other win against a playoff team? They beat jones playing for the steelers, not that impressive.

    So of they 7 playoff teams they played they beat
    Texans X2 (hoyer///Mallet then just hoyer)
    Steelers (w/ jones)
    Broncos (w/ manning hurt throwing 4ints)

    Ehh not impressed. None of what they did this year leads me to believe they will do anything more then backdoor cover this game at most and I'm not looking to wager on that.



     
    mafioso
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 4:25 PM ET #88

    Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

    mafioso, i love the angle brotha! Do you think the pats cover that 5 though? That is the question. I follow ya a lot, that is when you post, wish we heard more from ya. Interested to hear your thoughts. As always, thanks amigo.

    Been a rough 30 days.
    My father who I loved was my best friend on this planet past away December 18th

    Ill be posting this weekend 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

    mafioso, i love the angle brotha! Do you think the pats cover that 5 though? That is the question. I follow ya a lot, that is when you post, wish we heard more from ya. Interested to hear your thoughts. As always, thanks amigo.

    Been a rough 30 days.
    My father who I loved was my best friend on this planet past away December 18th

    Ill be posting this weekend 
     
    THEBEAST387
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 4:28 PM ET #89

    Mysticrich has a right to have a contrary opinion. When someone has a different opinion than the HERD you vilify him and attack for having an OPINION. As Jerry Garcia would say to all of you is LOOK IN THE MIRROR AND YOU WILL SEE THE REAL PROBLEM LOOKING BACK AT YOU. 
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    Mysticrich has a right to have a contrary opinion. When someone has a different opinion than the HERD you vilify him and attack for having an OPINION. As Jerry Garcia would say to all of you is LOOK IN THE MIRROR AND YOU WILL SEE THE REAL PROBLEM LOOKING BACK AT YOU. 
     
    bunny24
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 4:38 PM ET #90

    You do not question the fuher on his post because he is all knowing. If you challenge "coach suuma" you are a very bad dumcoff!!
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    You do not question the fuher on his post because he is all knowing. If you challenge "coach suuma" you are a very bad dumcoff!!
     
    bunny24
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 5:07 PM ET #91

    Sorry that was rude. I think that might have been over the top (fuhrer). Suuma is however the "leader" of the sheep.  Did you notice how he backed off Wizerguy on the Green Bay game when Wizerguy was on the other side (something to the effect of oh yes Wizerguy I guess we handicap things differently)....PLEASE!!  You see, this is what loud mouth bullies do.
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    Sorry that was rude. I think that might have been over the top (fuhrer). Suuma is however the "leader" of the sheep.  Did you notice how he backed off Wizerguy on the Green Bay game when Wizerguy was on the other side (something to the effect of oh yes Wizerguy I guess we handicap things differently)....PLEASE!!  You see, this is what loud mouth bullies do.
     
    bunny24
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 5:33 PM ET #92

    The prudent play on this game is the under. What is at right now?, 42. Don't be a stooge and fall into the trap of capping the side. The board tells you what to do. What does joe flipper head mush gambler do when he sees 42 AND THE PATS...Come on man!!

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    The prudent play on this game is the under. What is at right now?, 42. Don't be a stooge and fall into the trap of capping the side. The board tells you what to do. What does joe flipper head mush gambler do when he sees 42 AND THE PATS...Come on man!!

     
    chuckw_22dub
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 5:51 PM ET #93

    potential nor'easter at Foxboro too on Saturday. Helps Chiefs game plan but will still be ineffective vs superior team and coaching. 
    Pats advance- I can also see Steven Jackson as a nice value draft kings play (if anyone does that). Hell be low owned probably <7 % and get 17+ touches w/ potential TD. 



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    potential nor'easter at Foxboro too on Saturday. Helps Chiefs game plan but will still be ineffective vs superior team and coaching. 
    Pats advance- I can also see Steven Jackson as a nice value draft kings play (if anyone does that). Hell be low owned probably <7 % and get 17+ touches w/ potential TD. 



     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 7:35 PM ET #94

    Andy Reid is the worst big game coach ever I think......No way he out coaches BB

     
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    Andy Reid is the worst big game coach ever I think......No way he out coaches BB

     
     
    nature1970
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 10:00 PM ET #95

    New England seems to have a design on clock management.

    the reality of knowing about what chance any play has for success and the reasonable estimate of how long the play will last is some how calibrated into the design of clock time is managed .

    It might be a coincidence New England has the ball half the time at the end of the almost half based on initial coin flip but to be in possession of the ball at the end of almost every game is one of the secrets to new England's success.

    I do not believe analyst has determine this from any team organization but this league isn't about luck.

    I expect New England to run 20 short outs and screens in the first thirty plays ..... but only TIME will tell
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    New England seems to have a design on clock management.

    the reality of knowing about what chance any play has for success and the reasonable estimate of how long the play will last is some how calibrated into the design of clock time is managed .

    It might be a coincidence New England has the ball half the time at the end of the almost half based on initial coin flip but to be in possession of the ball at the end of almost every game is one of the secrets to new England's success.

    I do not believe analyst has determine this from any team organization but this league isn't about luck.

    I expect New England to run 20 short outs and screens in the first thirty plays ..... but only TIME will tell
     
    Duderonomy
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 11:25 PM ET #96

    Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

    The reason these people are picking kc is becaUs they saw 31-0 over Houston.  


    I didn't change my PR spreadsheet after the divisional games... but the Pats currently rank at the bottom of that spreadsheet, after the exit of the Vikings, Texans and Redskins.  I don't factor in the other playoff games... it is all based on the regular season...
    The Dude imbibes
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    Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

    The reason these people are picking kc is becaUs they saw 31-0 over Houston.  


    I didn't change my PR spreadsheet after the divisional games... but the Pats currently rank at the bottom of that spreadsheet, after the exit of the Vikings, Texans and Redskins.  I don't factor in the other playoff games... it is all based on the regular season...
     
    Duderonomy
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2016 - 11:32 PM ET #97

    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Andy Reid is the worst big game coach ever I think......


    This is true!  This is the only real reason not to be in love with the Chiefs in this game... 
    The Dude imbibes
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Andy Reid is the worst big game coach ever I think......


    This is true!  This is the only real reason not to be in love with the Chiefs in this game... 
     
    TheForbes777
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2016 - 12:03 AM ET #98

    Quote Originally Posted by Humchucker:

    For what it's worth, doesn't everyone look at this line and immediately assume NE covers? It's the previous SB champs Brady plus Belichick at home rested, getting key players back, with an extra week of prep, and needing less than a touchdown to cover?

    Isn't this one of those situations where everyone backs NE betting them against the spread since it's less than a touchdown? My thinking is that if the line were anything between 4 and 7, everyone bets NE ATS, leaving an opportunity for NE to win and not cover the spread and most bettors to lose.

    If the line were say NE-3.5 than the ML odds are better for NE and NE backers might hone in on the ML bet since not as much juice has to be paid. If you wanted to bet NE right now where the line is, you would bet ATS since the odds are terrible for ML.

    Even teasers, most would throw NE in since the sentiment is that NE can't lose this game and +1 or +2 basically gets them to a ML win.

    At the very least I question this line. Same thing happened last week with SEA and MIN, a 5 point favorite that everyone thought would cover, and SEA got the win but failed to cover. The SEA ATS bets all lost, the great odds MIN SU bets lost, and the SEA ML bets (heavily juiced) won. I don't actually know where the majority of the bets were last week, or this week so far, but I could see a similar situation playing out. Makes me think KC or no bet.

    At the very least if I had to tease a side, I would be teasing KC to +12 instead of NE+2.

    49% of bets are on KC
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    Quote Originally Posted by Humchucker:

    For what it's worth, doesn't everyone look at this line and immediately assume NE covers? It's the previous SB champs Brady plus Belichick at home rested, getting key players back, with an extra week of prep, and needing less than a touchdown to cover?

    Isn't this one of those situations where everyone backs NE betting them against the spread since it's less than a touchdown? My thinking is that if the line were anything between 4 and 7, everyone bets NE ATS, leaving an opportunity for NE to win and not cover the spread and most bettors to lose.

    If the line were say NE-3.5 than the ML odds are better for NE and NE backers might hone in on the ML bet since not as much juice has to be paid. If you wanted to bet NE right now where the line is, you would bet ATS since the odds are terrible for ML.

    Even teasers, most would throw NE in since the sentiment is that NE can't lose this game and +1 or +2 basically gets them to a ML win.

    At the very least I question this line. Same thing happened last week with SEA and MIN, a 5 point favorite that everyone thought would cover, and SEA got the win but failed to cover. The SEA ATS bets all lost, the great odds MIN SU bets lost, and the SEA ML bets (heavily juiced) won. I don't actually know where the majority of the bets were last week, or this week so far, but I could see a similar situation playing out. Makes me think KC or no bet.

    At the very least if I had to tease a side, I would be teasing KC to +12 instead of NE+2.

    49% of bets are on KC
     
    TheForbes777
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2016 - 12:03 AM ET #99

    Quote Originally Posted by Humchucker:

    For what it's worth, doesn't everyone look at this line and immediately assume NE covers? It's the previous SB champs Brady plus Belichick at home rested, getting key players back, with an extra week of prep, and needing less than a touchdown to cover?

    Isn't this one of those situations where everyone backs NE betting them against the spread since it's less than a touchdown? My thinking is that if the line were anything between 4 and 7, everyone bets NE ATS, leaving an opportunity for NE to win and not cover the spread and most bettors to lose.

    If the line were say NE-3.5 than the ML odds are better for NE and NE backers might hone in on the ML bet since not as much juice has to be paid. If you wanted to bet NE right now where the line is, you would bet ATS since the odds are terrible for ML.

    Even teasers, most would throw NE in since the sentiment is that NE can't lose this game and +1 or +2 basically gets them to a ML win.

    At the very least I question this line. Same thing happened last week with SEA and MIN, a 5 point favorite that everyone thought would cover, and SEA got the win but failed to cover. The SEA ATS bets all lost, the great odds MIN SU bets lost, and the SEA ML bets (heavily juiced) won. I don't actually know where the majority of the bets were last week, or this week so far, but I could see a similar situation playing out. Makes me think KC or no bet.

    At the very least if I had to tease a side, I would be teasing KC to +12 instead of NE+2.

    49% of bets are on KC
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    Quote Originally Posted by Humchucker:

    For what it's worth, doesn't everyone look at this line and immediately assume NE covers? It's the previous SB champs Brady plus Belichick at home rested, getting key players back, with an extra week of prep, and needing less than a touchdown to cover?

    Isn't this one of those situations where everyone backs NE betting them against the spread since it's less than a touchdown? My thinking is that if the line were anything between 4 and 7, everyone bets NE ATS, leaving an opportunity for NE to win and not cover the spread and most bettors to lose.

    If the line were say NE-3.5 than the ML odds are better for NE and NE backers might hone in on the ML bet since not as much juice has to be paid. If you wanted to bet NE right now where the line is, you would bet ATS since the odds are terrible for ML.

    Even teasers, most would throw NE in since the sentiment is that NE can't lose this game and +1 or +2 basically gets them to a ML win.

    At the very least I question this line. Same thing happened last week with SEA and MIN, a 5 point favorite that everyone thought would cover, and SEA got the win but failed to cover. The SEA ATS bets all lost, the great odds MIN SU bets lost, and the SEA ML bets (heavily juiced) won. I don't actually know where the majority of the bets were last week, or this week so far, but I could see a similar situation playing out. Makes me think KC or no bet.

    At the very least if I had to tease a side, I would be teasing KC to +12 instead of NE+2.

    49% of bets are on KC
     
     
    BigPell
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2016 - 12:08 AM ET #100

    Quote Originally Posted by Shinigami23:

    Wow...Ive never seen so many excuses for the Patriots. The Pats lost the last few games simply because their O-Line played awful. They didnt try to lose to avoid the Steelers? Their run game is non existent. They are one dimensional. DBs just need to cover for a few seconds and have faith that the pass rush will get there. KC has that pass rush. Tom Bradys kryptonite = a pass rush. Someone mentioned the last 2 drives of the Superbowl. Yeah he was excellent...because he had all day to throw. Seattle kept rushing 4 and by the 4th quarter their DLine ran out of gas. (missed tripping call gave Seattle defense a short rest as well but thats another story)

    Couldn't be more dead wrong...almost pointless to blitz Brady with a healthy Edelman he gets rid of the ball so quick that it's actually maybe his greatest strength as a quarterback. His ability to breakdown a defense before the snap and then in one split second when a blitz comes. It's been this way for quite some time. Surprising to say the least that you would try to sell the blitz as TBs kryptonite, it's actually his best friend.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shinigami23:

    Wow...Ive never seen so many excuses for the Patriots. The Pats lost the last few games simply because their O-Line played awful. They didnt try to lose to avoid the Steelers? Their run game is non existent. They are one dimensional. DBs just need to cover for a few seconds and have faith that the pass rush will get there. KC has that pass rush. Tom Bradys kryptonite = a pass rush. Someone mentioned the last 2 drives of the Superbowl. Yeah he was excellent...because he had all day to throw. Seattle kept rushing 4 and by the 4th quarter their DLine ran out of gas. (missed tripping call gave Seattle defense a short rest as well but thats another story)

    Couldn't be more dead wrong...almost pointless to blitz Brady with a healthy Edelman he gets rid of the ball so quick that it's actually maybe his greatest strength as a quarterback. His ability to breakdown a defense before the snap and then in one split second when a blitz comes. It's been this way for quite some time. Surprising to say the least that you would try to sell the blitz as TBs kryptonite, it's actually his best friend.
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