Den closed and covered as a 1.5 point favorite vs Buff and look ahead line had them as -2 favorite vs Pats before Nix injury. now its +5.5?!?! look Pats may cover this line Stidham might be a bum and the defense might give up 30+, but Denver didnt lose Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes, hell I don't know if we get a 7.5-8 point move if it was Lamar or Mahomes.
Maye hasnt exactly been lighting up these games and now they face a defense that takes away what Maye does best, the deep ball. also we seen the havoc the texans and LAC dLine did and the pressure they got...it aint getting better for Drake Maye on the road in a hostile place vs a D that now probably feels its gotta step up extra to win this game.
I already made it one of the largest bets I placed this year $1650 (avg bet about $500-$1000) and it am seriously thinking of a 1h bet and ML... also hit them at +1000 to win SB @+1000 then it went to +1300 so might put another 100 on it.
Like I said we seen Pats go into Buff and Balt get gutsy wins and maybe they beat this d and Stidham shows why he isn't a starter and on his 3rd team, but regardless this line movement is INSANE!
GLTA
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Den closed and covered as a 1.5 point favorite vs Buff and look ahead line had them as -2 favorite vs Pats before Nix injury. now its +5.5?!?! look Pats may cover this line Stidham might be a bum and the defense might give up 30+, but Denver didnt lose Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes, hell I don't know if we get a 7.5-8 point move if it was Lamar or Mahomes.
Maye hasnt exactly been lighting up these games and now they face a defense that takes away what Maye does best, the deep ball. also we seen the havoc the texans and LAC dLine did and the pressure they got...it aint getting better for Drake Maye on the road in a hostile place vs a D that now probably feels its gotta step up extra to win this game.
I already made it one of the largest bets I placed this year $1650 (avg bet about $500-$1000) and it am seriously thinking of a 1h bet and ML... also hit them at +1000 to win SB @+1000 then it went to +1300 so might put another 100 on it.
Like I said we seen Pats go into Buff and Balt get gutsy wins and maybe they beat this d and Stidham shows why he isn't a starter and on his 3rd team, but regardless this line movement is INSANE!
on top of that the point spread is all over the place...anywhere from +4.5 to +5.5, starting to come down to 5 or 4.5 everywhere though even though Pats are getting all the early action
1
on top of that the point spread is all over the place...anywhere from +4.5 to +5.5, starting to come down to 5 or 4.5 everywhere though even though Pats are getting all the early action
Den closed and covered as a 1.5 point favorite vs Buff and look ahead line had them as -2 favorite vs Pats before Nix injury. now its +5.5?!?! look Pats may cover this line Stidham might be a bum and the defense might give up 30+, but Denver didnt lose Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes, hell I don't know if we get a 7.5-8 point move if it was Lamar or Mahomes. Maye hasnt exactly been lighting up these games and now they face a defense that takes away what Maye does best, the deep ball. also we seen the havoc the texans and LAC dLine did and the pressure they got...it aint getting better for Drake Maye on the road in a hostile place vs a D that now probably feels its gotta step up extra to win this game. I already made it one of the largest bets I placed this year $1650 (avg bet about $500-$1000) and it am seriously thinking of a 1h bet and ML... also hit them at +1000 to win SB @+1000 then it went to +1300 so might put another 100 on it. Like I said we seen Pats go into Buff and Balt get gutsy wins and maybe they beat this d and Stidham shows why he isn't a starter and on his 3rd team, but regardless this line movement is INSANE! GLTA
Might as well throw a bit on Stidham SB MVP +1900.....hes gonna have to play a good game if they get there.....don't see Harvey or any receiver getting it.....Defensive player always possible.....
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Quote Originally Posted by GottaWinItAll:
Den closed and covered as a 1.5 point favorite vs Buff and look ahead line had them as -2 favorite vs Pats before Nix injury. now its +5.5?!?! look Pats may cover this line Stidham might be a bum and the defense might give up 30+, but Denver didnt lose Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes, hell I don't know if we get a 7.5-8 point move if it was Lamar or Mahomes. Maye hasnt exactly been lighting up these games and now they face a defense that takes away what Maye does best, the deep ball. also we seen the havoc the texans and LAC dLine did and the pressure they got...it aint getting better for Drake Maye on the road in a hostile place vs a D that now probably feels its gotta step up extra to win this game. I already made it one of the largest bets I placed this year $1650 (avg bet about $500-$1000) and it am seriously thinking of a 1h bet and ML... also hit them at +1000 to win SB @+1000 then it went to +1300 so might put another 100 on it. Like I said we seen Pats go into Buff and Balt get gutsy wins and maybe they beat this d and Stidham shows why he isn't a starter and on his 3rd team, but regardless this line movement is INSANE! GLTA
Might as well throw a bit on Stidham SB MVP +1900.....hes gonna have to play a good game if they get there.....don't see Harvey or any receiver getting it.....Defensive player always possible.....
The Broncos have a luxury that most other teams don't they are extremely deep at ALL positions including QB. Games, they say, are won in the trenches. The Broncos have an elite line both offensively and defensively. Denver is getting injured players back and running back JK Dobbins is likely to return as well. If he returns, they will be at full strength. It's going to be a long day for the Patriots.
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The Broncos have a luxury that most other teams don't they are extremely deep at ALL positions including QB. Games, they say, are won in the trenches. The Broncos have an elite line both offensively and defensively. Denver is getting injured players back and running back JK Dobbins is likely to return as well. If he returns, they will be at full strength. It's going to be a long day for the Patriots.
don't get me wrong I think either rams or Sea win SB but at 13-1 with 2 games left ill make that bet every time. and like last time Denver won SB a defensive player will be most likely to win.
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@TRAIN69
don't get me wrong I think either rams or Sea win SB but at 13-1 with 2 games left ill make that bet every time. and like last time Denver won SB a defensive player will be most likely to win.
I heard the same thing going into the bills game , Allen had 4 turnovers & with help from the refs & that questionable Brandon cooks play that wasn’t reviewed, so I don’t know how elite they are after struggling to put the bills away, so all that remains to be seen
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@best_bets
I heard the same thing going into the bills game , Allen had 4 turnovers & with help from the refs & that questionable Brandon cooks play that wasn’t reviewed, so I don’t know how elite they are after struggling to put the bills away, so all that remains to be seen
The Denver D line caused Allen to fumble twice. Is that not enough? They sacked him 3 times. Is that not enough? The Broncos have the 2nd ranked D in the league. That's for the season my friend, not one game. They beat Josh Allen and the Bills. Is that not enough? All year long I've heard how bad they are and that they are frauds. The frauds are now 15-3 including the playoffs. Is that not enough? BTW Denver's O-line did not allow a sack. I know, it's not enough!
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@ULLafayettekid
The Denver D line caused Allen to fumble twice. Is that not enough? They sacked him 3 times. Is that not enough? The Broncos have the 2nd ranked D in the league. That's for the season my friend, not one game. They beat Josh Allen and the Bills. Is that not enough? All year long I've heard how bad they are and that they are frauds. The frauds are now 15-3 including the playoffs. Is that not enough? BTW Denver's O-line did not allow a sack. I know, it's not enough!
I’m not saying Denver not a good team , they are the number one seed for a reason , the fumble before half time should of been a kneel down, or maybe Allen not carry the ball like a loft bread , has far frauds , they are suspect, 5.5 points underdogs is a record, the last time a team was that big a underdog in A conference championship game, they lost 34- -0 , maybe they are frauds
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@best_bets
I’m not saying Denver not a good team , they are the number one seed for a reason , the fumble before half time should of been a kneel down, or maybe Allen not carry the ball like a loft bread , has far frauds , they are suspect, 5.5 points underdogs is a record, the last time a team was that big a underdog in A conference championship game, they lost 34- -0 , maybe they are frauds
Bro, I don't care if you flush money down the toilet. Bet the Patriots. Drake Maye is fumble prone. He's going to feel the heat Denver's D will bring as they have done ALL season long. They now have 72 sacks on the season. I feel sorry for him. The Patriots are 12-21 in Denver all-time.
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@ULLafayettekid
Bro, I don't care if you flush money down the toilet. Bet the Patriots. Drake Maye is fumble prone. He's going to feel the heat Denver's D will bring as they have done ALL season long. They now have 72 sacks on the season. I feel sorry for him. The Patriots are 12-21 in Denver all-time.
@best_bets I heard the same thing going into the bills game , Allen had 4 turnovers & with help from the refs & that questionable Brandon cooks play that wasn’t reviewed, so I don’t know how elite they are after struggling to put the bills away, so all that remains to be seen
You aren't wrong, but comparing Josh Allen to Drake Maye making his 1st career road playoff start is already a step in the wrong direction.
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Quote Originally Posted by ULLafayettekid:
@best_bets I heard the same thing going into the bills game , Allen had 4 turnovers & with help from the refs & that questionable Brandon cooks play that wasn’t reviewed, so I don’t know how elite they are after struggling to put the bills away, so all that remains to be seen
You aren't wrong, but comparing Josh Allen to Drake Maye making his 1st career road playoff start is already a step in the wrong direction.
@TRAIN69 don't get me wrong I think either rams or Sea win SB but at 13-1 with 2 games left ill make that bet every time. and like last time Denver won SB a defensive player will be most likely to win.
Who on D though? Bonitto is 100-1 but nobody else stands out.....and he would have to have a monster game.....I just think Stidham will have to play a great game.....if Dobbins (assuming he's back) and Harvey split carries they will kinda cancel each other out....Theres too many WR/TE options and I dont think any will have a monster game....
Stidham throws for 250 & 2 might be enough....
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Quote Originally Posted by GottaWinItAll:
@TRAIN69 don't get me wrong I think either rams or Sea win SB but at 13-1 with 2 games left ill make that bet every time. and like last time Denver won SB a defensive player will be most likely to win.
Who on D though? Bonitto is 100-1 but nobody else stands out.....and he would have to have a monster game.....I just think Stidham will have to play a great game.....if Dobbins (assuming he's back) and Harvey split carries they will kinda cancel each other out....Theres too many WR/TE options and I dont think any will have a monster game....
Denver defense is not has good has Houston’s defense IMO , Drake is cool calm and collected, and if Denver brings pressure, maye will make em pay with his arm or his legs , I think U are underestimating this New England team, , they put up 34 vs Houston and your team is breaking in A QB that hasn’t taken a meaningful snap since 2023 , I hope he’s ready if not this could get pretty ugly
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@best_bets
Denver defense is not has good has Houston’s defense IMO , Drake is cool calm and collected, and if Denver brings pressure, maye will make em pay with his arm or his legs , I think U are underestimating this New England team, , they put up 34 vs Houston and your team is breaking in A QB that hasn’t taken a meaningful snap since 2023 , I hope he’s ready if not this could get pretty ugly
This is quite the interesting debate this week. The first question being is Bo Nix worth 7+ points to the spread. The second one though, that’s equally as interesting is can the patriots win on the road by 5-6 points.
The answer to the first question I think is certainly no. We’ve seen Bo play close games with bad teams. We’ve also seen Denver play up and down to its competition all season, making them one of the most inconsistent AFCCG teams in some time.
But everyone seems to be treating the movement of the line and facts of the situation like they’re the same thing. They’re certainly not. The Patriots can win this game in double digit/blowout fashion just because of this qb situation. In a game where Maye takes care of the ball and Stidham makes a few big mistakes, this game certainly can get out of hand. The Patriots don’t necessarily have to play great or score a lot of points to cover the number. 20-10 or 23-13 Patriots is absolutely in play with both teams just playing decent.
You can analyze what Bo Nix is worth to a spread all you want. That won’t account for a backup qb playing in the biggest game of his career and potentially being behind the entire time. In my opinion there’s a much higher probability of a comfortable New England win then there is a great Stidham playoff performance.
So from a pure numbers/betting market perspective I understand the logic behind backing Denver. The line move is an overreaction and can potentially be taken advantage of. But at the same time a New England cover is not a hard sell. With a good gameplan from a pass blocking perspective and a defensive scheme that’s focused on shutting down the run game and forcing Stidham to beat you, I don’t think the patriots should struggle to win.
Anyway, the point I’m trying to make is that just because you’re in an advantageous position by the numbers it doesn’t mean that you should run to the window to back the Stidham led Broncos. To be honest all I’ve heard this week is that the line moved way too much and that everyone is jumping on the points with Denver. I haven’t heard many people make a case for why New England will win and cover easily. I think everyone needs to slow their roll with this line move angle…
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This is quite the interesting debate this week. The first question being is Bo Nix worth 7+ points to the spread. The second one though, that’s equally as interesting is can the patriots win on the road by 5-6 points.
The answer to the first question I think is certainly no. We’ve seen Bo play close games with bad teams. We’ve also seen Denver play up and down to its competition all season, making them one of the most inconsistent AFCCG teams in some time.
But everyone seems to be treating the movement of the line and facts of the situation like they’re the same thing. They’re certainly not. The Patriots can win this game in double digit/blowout fashion just because of this qb situation. In a game where Maye takes care of the ball and Stidham makes a few big mistakes, this game certainly can get out of hand. The Patriots don’t necessarily have to play great or score a lot of points to cover the number. 20-10 or 23-13 Patriots is absolutely in play with both teams just playing decent.
You can analyze what Bo Nix is worth to a spread all you want. That won’t account for a backup qb playing in the biggest game of his career and potentially being behind the entire time. In my opinion there’s a much higher probability of a comfortable New England win then there is a great Stidham playoff performance.
So from a pure numbers/betting market perspective I understand the logic behind backing Denver. The line move is an overreaction and can potentially be taken advantage of. But at the same time a New England cover is not a hard sell. With a good gameplan from a pass blocking perspective and a defensive scheme that’s focused on shutting down the run game and forcing Stidham to beat you, I don’t think the patriots should struggle to win.
Anyway, the point I’m trying to make is that just because you’re in an advantageous position by the numbers it doesn’t mean that you should run to the window to back the Stidham led Broncos. To be honest all I’ve heard this week is that the line moved way too much and that everyone is jumping on the points with Denver. I haven’t heard many people make a case for why New England will win and cover easily. I think everyone needs to slow their roll with this line move angle…
agree 100% but that being said Pats are getting 75% of the bets and money so not that many people are on the "the line moved to much" camp. also with the line retracing back towards 4 even with 75/25 split.
and like I said Pats could win by 10+ easy, but can the rest of Denver team rise up at home and beat a 2nd year QB that's played like crap this playoffs....absolutly.
also home teams getting 4 or more are like 9-0 in the playoffs (1-0 this year Car vs Rams). not a big trend guy though.
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@brn2loslive2win
agree 100% but that being said Pats are getting 75% of the bets and money so not that many people are on the "the line moved to much" camp. also with the line retracing back towards 4 even with 75/25 split.
and like I said Pats could win by 10+ easy, but can the rest of Denver team rise up at home and beat a 2nd year QB that's played like crap this playoffs....absolutly.
also home teams getting 4 or more are like 9-0 in the playoffs (1-0 this year Car vs Rams). not a big trend guy though.
All good points here. But if the nfl is rigged at all, it would be Pats to the SB because no one wants to see Broncos with a backup qb in the big game. Viewership and wagers would be down. Pats ml is safest bet or tease it
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All good points here. But if the nfl is rigged at all, it would be Pats to the SB because no one wants to see Broncos with a backup qb in the big game. Viewership and wagers would be down. Pats ml is safest bet or tease it
@ULLafayettekid Bro, I don't care if you flush money down the toilet. Bet the Patriots. Drake Maye is fumble prone. He's going to feel the heat Denver's D will bring as they have done ALL season long. They now have 72 sacks on the season. I feel sorry for him. The Patriots are 12-21 in Denver all-time.
this is being ignored, maye is a fumbling machine. denver ml
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Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:
@ULLafayettekid Bro, I don't care if you flush money down the toilet. Bet the Patriots. Drake Maye is fumble prone. He's going to feel the heat Denver's D will bring as they have done ALL season long. They now have 72 sacks on the season. I feel sorry for him. The Patriots are 12-21 in Denver all-time.
this is being ignored, maye is a fumbling machine. denver ml
@TRAIN69 STDham as MVP is throwing your money away. I wouldnt be surprised if DiNucci is in game before the 2nd Q.
Quote Originally Posted by Hesed55:
All good points here. But if the nfl is rigged at all, it would be Pats to the SB because no one wants to see Broncos with a backup qb in the big game. Viewership and wagers would be down. Pats ml is safest bet or tease it
nothing will hurt viewership. backups have played in the sb a few times. people like to root for the underdog
1
Quote Originally Posted by wizard1183:
@TRAIN69 STDham as MVP is throwing your money away. I wouldnt be surprised if DiNucci is in game before the 2nd Q.
Quote Originally Posted by Hesed55:
All good points here. But if the nfl is rigged at all, it would be Pats to the SB because no one wants to see Broncos with a backup qb in the big game. Viewership and wagers would be down. Pats ml is safest bet or tease it
nothing will hurt viewership. backups have played in the sb a few times. people like to root for the underdog
I admit even I overreacted, saying NE should be anywhere from 6.5 to 8.5 pt favs
And i actually think this midweek drop is very interesting. I expect it to go back up to 5.5 or 6 before the game as the public jump on the Pats.
I think people fail to realize that Houston, being on the road, and in the rain, which was both not in their favor, needed sorely yo avoid critical mistakes. And they didn't just make one or two or even three. They made SO many. And yet NE couldn't really finish them off until that insane Diggs TD late in the game.
Houston's defense played well for most of the game outside of a few plays.
Now the Pats have to win a road playoff game which many QBs have struggled with and few have done first try. Broncos have better WRs. Stidham like Nix is an Auburn guy who once beat two number one ranked teams in a season Bama and UGA and he has nothing to lose, nobody expects him to win and he doesn't even need an NFL career he is married to the daughter of the CEO of a company that owns the 76ers and several stadiums.
Oh to be a good looking jock with just enough talent to be a backup NFL QB. Charmed life. Travel the country half the year with the boys, barely take any hits and do hardly any actual work, come home and bang your hot rich wife.
Houston was so trash it was unbelievable. This game will be close. I think it will be very low scoring similar to Pats vs Chargers. Under is my play but I haven't totally given up on my Broncos SB future (i just would like it live so I can hedge the other side if it's Rams or let it all ride as I have Hawks already too)
I honestly think we get a super weird SB with Darnold vs Stidham or a more typical 'Decorated vet vs next big thing' in Pats vs Rams. The latter is the worst case scenario for me so will probably happen.
0
I admit even I overreacted, saying NE should be anywhere from 6.5 to 8.5 pt favs
And i actually think this midweek drop is very interesting. I expect it to go back up to 5.5 or 6 before the game as the public jump on the Pats.
I think people fail to realize that Houston, being on the road, and in the rain, which was both not in their favor, needed sorely yo avoid critical mistakes. And they didn't just make one or two or even three. They made SO many. And yet NE couldn't really finish them off until that insane Diggs TD late in the game.
Houston's defense played well for most of the game outside of a few plays.
Now the Pats have to win a road playoff game which many QBs have struggled with and few have done first try. Broncos have better WRs. Stidham like Nix is an Auburn guy who once beat two number one ranked teams in a season Bama and UGA and he has nothing to lose, nobody expects him to win and he doesn't even need an NFL career he is married to the daughter of the CEO of a company that owns the 76ers and several stadiums.
Oh to be a good looking jock with just enough talent to be a backup NFL QB. Charmed life. Travel the country half the year with the boys, barely take any hits and do hardly any actual work, come home and bang your hot rich wife.
Houston was so trash it was unbelievable. This game will be close. I think it will be very low scoring similar to Pats vs Chargers. Under is my play but I haven't totally given up on my Broncos SB future (i just would like it live so I can hedge the other side if it's Rams or let it all ride as I have Hawks already too)
I honestly think we get a super weird SB with Darnold vs Stidham or a more typical 'Decorated vet vs next big thing' in Pats vs Rams. The latter is the worst case scenario for me so will probably happen.
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