TEAMS GOING UP, TEAMS GOING DOWN

Hard at work on my offseason prep. Teams I see on an upward path spreadwise: Arizona, Cleveland, New England, New York Jets, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay. Teams I have charted to disappoint: Baltimore, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Miami, New Orleans.  Are you ready for some football?

Although I like the Bucs as a bonified playoff contender, I could see an early season overreaction with Brady now. I think the Jets will cause some problems and. I believe BAL will dropoff in covering as a big chalk. Disagree with BUFF though, I'm on their bandwagon and had a good read and betting success, both ways, on them last season. If there aren't any fans however, that changes my thoughts and even the game, and results may, at least early on, become less predictable.

The Jets schedule is brutal ...

Bills easily have their best team on paper since the super bowl years ..Pats are toast .

The Jets will be catching points their 1st 3 games, @ Buff, vs SF, @ Indy. I can see them covering 2 of those games, under normal circumstances, and that remains to be seen. Road games @ KC and SEA will be tuff to win but they'll be getting a cluster of points, and we're only talking about covering the spread. Let's just hope they play

We will have football this year, but it could be the last year. The country is on the brink of devolving into full-on communism. People have no idea how bad it's going to get. The Bolshevik revolution will look like a walk in the park compared to what's coming. Enjoy what little is left of your freedom while you can.

Ok 

Finished some in-depth analysis of Buffalo. Unfortunately, I project them to regress this year and finish under their season win total. They most likely will not win the AFC East. Cincinnati will be bad and Zac Taylor could be the year's first coaching casualty. Detroit's Matt Patricia won't be far behind him. If he starts slow, old Martha Ford will give home the axe. Miami will be bad, but Flores won't be fired. Cards a dark horse to win their division.

Curious DS, why do you think Buffalo will regress?

I think Miami should really get Tua out there asap during the season. I see them taking a big step this year with all their new additions. Current O/u for them is 6.5 and that looks really nice. That defense can easily become above average this year. They have two good backs now and are an improved O line away from being a possible contender in the future...

I agree Phillip, but Flores says he doesn't want to start the rookie.

The long answer is 6 pages plus charts and graphs. Here's the short answer:

1) Josh Allen finished last year ranked 32nd in completion percentage, 28th in yards per pass attempt, and 27th in passer rating.

2) Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll's points per game average after six years: 15, 17, 21, 13, 17, 20

3) Since 2013, teams that won 3 or more games over their season win total are 23-11-2 under their win total the following year, including 9-1-1 under their total if they scored 23 or less points. (From "Week One NFL Winners 2020 edition.)

4) Since 2008, five other quarterbacks completed 58% of their college passes and were drafted in the top 100: Jake Locker, Andrew Walter,  Christian Hackenberg, Connor Cook, C.J. Beathard. (From "Week One NFL Winners 2020 edition.)

5) Josh Allen has a 71% fumble recovery rate due for regression. (From "Week One NFL Winners 2020 edition.)

6) Sean McDermott is 25-25 SU, basically a .500 coach, yet he needs to win over that to cover Buffalo's win total.

7) Little to no dropoff from New England, improved competition from the Jets.