Super Bowl XLVIII Write-up inside...

Question

First off let me say that I&#39;m not Seahawks or Broncos fan.  My prediction and analysis of this game solely based on winning money and helping you do the same.  No guarantees and no promises.  However, my pick I feel would win 80 times out of 100.  I like those odds.  In my analysis I will use current and past stats and trends as that has aided me in picking 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls correctly.  The first piece of info I looked at when sizing up this game is the fact that Peyton Manning has played 35 games as a Bronco, including play-offs.  35 times he has been the favorite at the open. In this game the odds makers made Manning a 1 to 2 point underdog at open depending on your book.  The books knw Joe Public will be all over Manning, yet they still laid odds for the sharps to hammer Denver ML at plus money.  This tells me right off the bat what the stance of the odds makers is.  Yes, I understand they want 50/50 on the game.  I get it. I just think that their opening line says a lot....

YNOT_15 · Answer

First off let me say that I&#39;m not Seahawks or Broncos fan.  My prediction and analysis of this game solely based on winning money and helping you do the same.  No guarantees and no promises.  However, my pick I feel would win 80 times out of 100.  I like those odds.  In my analysis I will use current and past stats and trends as that has aided me in picking 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls correctly.  The first piece of info I looked at when sizing up this game is the fact that Peyton Manning has played 35 games as a Bronco, including play-offs.  35 times he has been the favorite at the open. In this game the odds makers made Manning a 1 to 2 point underdog at open depending on your book.  The books knw Joe Public will be all over Manning, yet they still laid odds for the sharps to hammer Denver ML at plus money.  This tells me right off the bat what the stance of the odds makers is.  Yes, I understand they want 50/50 on the game.  I get it. I just think that their opening line says a lot....

YNOT_15 · Answer

Moving into the game and these teams I see a close game and in the end the Seahawks pull away and are crowned champions.  We always hear the clich&#233; that &quot;Defense wins championships...&quot;.  I agree with that statement.  We haven&#39;t seen it lately because we haven&#39;t seen any truly great defenses until now.  The last defense we saw like this was the 2002 Tampa Bay Bucs, whom by the way destroyed the best offense that year in the Super Bowl.  Who was their QB?  Brad Johson...who?  Exactly my point, yet they put up 41 points in that game.  4 times we have seen the best offense and best defense match up in the final game.  The D is 3-1.  The one loss was the &#39;89 Niners whom had a top 5 defense, something Denver does not have.  18 times we have seen the best offense make it it the final game winning ONLY 10 times.  12 times as have seen the best D make it to the Super Bowl winning 12 times.  So far the black and white of past history points to Seattle to win this game.  We so know facts don&#39;t lie and history repeats...more to follow.

tahoejoe2 · Answer

[ . The last defense we saw like this was the 2002 Tampa Bay Bucs, whom by the way destroyed the best offense that year in the Super Bowl. Who was their QB? Brad Johson...who? Exactly my point, yet they put up 41 points in that game.

You can thow out that game. Gruden, the former Oakland coach had the Raiders play book. As one of the TB players said "we knew what they were going to do before the ball was snapped".

YNOT_15 · Answer

Let&#39;s discuss the turnover battle that will be ever so important on this big stage of a game.  In 47 Super Bowls only 4 times has the winner lost the turnover battle.  This is the most convincing of all stats for me.  It basically tells me that if you win the turnover battle you will win this game about 90% of the time.  Let&#39;s look at both teams history in this category.  While the broncos broke even on their take away to give away ratio, which was bottoms in the league, the Seahawks were tops at &#x2B;20.  The Broncos also turned the ball over at 1.6 times per game, again bottoms in the league. While the Seahawks turn it over the least in the NFL and take it away the most at 2.4 times per game.  If we look at the post season these trends continue.  Although Denver&#39;s defense has improved it&#39;s a bit misleading.  The offense has burned clock and kept them off the field.  Against the best defense in the league this will not be the case on Sunday.  Through 2 play off games the broncos were a -1 in turn over to give away ratio, while the Seahawks were &#x2B;2.  Again, advantage Seattle.  In fact the Broncos did not force 1 turnover through 8 quarters in the post season.  Against the best team at protecting the football this trend should continue.  Through the same 8 quarters the Seattle defense has forced 5 turnovers and forced in more fumbles that were recovered by their opponent.  If Denver wins the turnover battle it would be a MIRACLE!!

YNOT_15 · Answer

The Broncos offensively had a historical year.  My hat is off to them.  They will present many challenges for the Seahawks D.  However, Denver&#39;s offense has not played against a top 6 defense the entire season.  The Seahawks D has gone against the Saints twice which are a top tier offense.  They held them to 22 points through 8 quarters and two games.  7 of those points were in garbage time as well. They shut down the best TE in the game (j. Grahm) and held him to 2 catches in two games.  A quarterback that has thrown for 5,000 plus yards in back to back seasons couldn&#39;t reach 300 yards in two games.  I believe they can do the same to Manning.  They will not shut him down, however they will be kicking field goals a lot of times, in the elements, instead of PAT&#39;s.  This will be the difference in the game.  Let&#39;s also remember that Seattle has played 8 games against top 6 defenses winning the majority of those games.  The Denver defense, although improved, will be a walk in the park for the Seattle defense to move the ball.  The 49ers defense, dating back to the 2010 season, has allowed 6-100 yard rushers (including playoffs).  4 times the guy was named Marshawn Lynch.  The last one was 109 yards and a score in the NFC championship game.  Denver&#39;s so called stout run defense will not be a problem.  Again, advantage Seattle.

YNOT_15 · Answer

Wagering in Las Vegas @ the LVH...find me if you are there and I will show you my betting slips.

Seattle +1.5-.2.5 (lock my line Saturday) $16,500 to win $15,000

Seattle ML $5,000 @ +110-120
Lynch over 88.5 yards $550 to win $500
Russell Wislon MVP @ +450 $500
Lynch MVP @ +1600 $250

YNOT_15 · Answer

Thoughts &amp; creative criticism are always welcome...Go Hawks!!

CC12 · Answer

Thx, i enjoyed reading ur postfew comments:- opening line is important, just like the line movement... but neither of that is a sure way to pick a winner. Seattle has a great team, so the opening line didn&#x27;t surprise me... not the direction it took.- "Defense wins Championship" has been the most &#x27;public&#x27; cliche i heard for this SB. It seems like every person and jane is believing the hype that this Seattle&#x27;s D is for real. However, this particular defense&#x27;s strength is the LBs and the DBs, rather than traditional front seven. Apples and Oranges IMO- 2002 SB was Jon Gruden&#x27;s revenge and based on his inside info.. the TB defense already knew what plays oak was running.. and TB had hall of fame and pro-bowl front line.- no doubt the Hawks get TOs.. but the # is padded when u play the likes of CK, Sam Bradford, Carson Palmer twice in the same division. CK alone turned over the ball three times in last game. - C&#x27;mon man.. u can&#x27;t really say that both games vs Saints were against top-tier offense. Brees on the road is more like watching Eli.. very frustrating. When u take away his option to audible properly due to Seattle&#x27;s 12th man and HFA, its no wonder Saints failed to make a game out of it. If anyone wagered on the saints&#x2B;3 for the 1st game, they are prob a fool. - Denver may have had zero TO forced in 8 quarters of Playoff.. but they also kept the opponents to 0 points in first 3Q vs Bolts and 3 points in first 3Q vs New England.. and won both games convincingly. So its obvious Denver can win the SB game without winning the TO battle.--------------I am also starting to doubt that Denver is the public play.  I think too many people&#xD;&#xA; here at Covers is happy to rely on a simple motto "Defense wins championship" when they don&#x27;t realize the bases for that.. or they think Denver is the public play and just go against public.. rather than studying the key match-up: off line vs def lineEnjoy the game

YNOT_15 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by CC12]  Thx, i enjoyed reading ur postfew comments:- opening line is important, just like the line movement... but neither of that is a sure way to pick a winner. Seattle has a great team, so the opening line didn&#x27;t surprise me... not the direction it took.- "Defense wins Championship" has been the most &#x27;public&#x27; cliche i heard for this SB. It seems like every person and jane is believing the hype that this Seattle&#x27;s D is for real. However, this particular defense&#x27;s strength is the LBs and the DBs, rather than traditional front seven. Apples and Oranges IMO- 2002 SB was Jon Gruden&#x27;s revenge and based on his inside info.. the TB defense already knew what plays oak was running.. and TB had hall of fame and pro-bowl front line.- no doubt the Hawks get TOs.. but the # is padded when u play the likes of CK, Sam Bradford, Carson Palmer twice in the same division. CK alone turned over the ball three times in last game. - C&#x27;mon man.. u can&#x27;t really say that both games vs Saints were against top-tier offense. Brees on the road is more like watching Eli.. very frustrating. When u take away his option to audible properly due to Seattle&#x27;s 12th man and HFA, its no wonder Saints failed to make a game out of it. If anyone wagered on the saints&#x2B;3 for the 1st game, they are prob a fool. - Denver may have had zero TO forced in 8 quarters of Playoff.. but they also kept the opponents to 0 points in first 3Q vs Bolts and 3 points in first 3Q vs New England.. and won both games convincingly. So its obvious Denver can win the SB game without winning the TO battle.--------------I am also starting to doubt that Denver is the public play.  I think too many people&#xD;&#xA; here at Covers is happy to rely on a simple motto "Defense wins championship" when they don&#x27;t realize the bases for that.. or they think Denver is the public play and just go against public.. rather than studying the key match-up: off line vs def lineEnjoy the game  [/Quote]If we are speaking of stats  in regards to competition than let&#x27;s dive into the "HISTORICAL" stats this offense put up in Denver.  They played the Chiefs, Raiders, and Chargers twice.  They played the NFC East, the Texans, Jaguars, Colts, and Titans.  Aside from Houston which was statically good but overall were bad defensively.  the Broncos were served with a cake walk offensively.  All those defenses were in the bottom 3rd of the league in total defense.  Yes, they have one of the greatest QB&#x27;s football has seen.  So you serve him up the easiest line up of defenses and he knocks it out of the park.  Congrats!  Brady, Bree&#x27;s, or any other future hall of fame QB w a few pro bowl WR&#x27;s is gonna do the same.   Was it impressive, sure.  Was it something that will be repeated? I think so.  Do stats win championships.  Never.  All I&#x27;m saying is that statistical data favors the Seahawks.  Again, off the top Peyton does not play well in the post season when the weather becomes adverse.  He is still 0-4 in the post season sub 40 degrees.  How do you explain that.  In those games he has 1 TD to 6 interceptions.  His completion % goes from 68-70% to sub 50%.  It&#x27;s black &amp; white.  If this game is indoors or in a warm climate I would too be on Peyton. However, this game is in the conditions.  Until Sunday nobody knows what those will be.  However, they will be less than an ideal and in conditions not in favor of a spread offense and a QB who has struggled in the elements.  Let&#x27;s also not forget the surface that the game is being played on.  The Seahawks are 12-0 on this surface this year and the Broncos have lost 2 of their 3 games on this surface.  The Seahawks are much more used to this surface than Denver.  I think in a game of this magnitude every advantage matters.

choiOi · Answer

Defense wins championships and Seattle is the best defensive team in the NFL bla bla bla.... Let me ask this question..,then why are they getting points???

Why are they not the fav? Or were? If all the stats, #s, point to them winning...why are the books chalking them points?

CC12 · Answer

dude, where do u come up with this bullshit ? MetLife uses UBU-Intensity Series- S5-M Synthetic Turf.. the only other stadiums this is installed ? MB superdome (Saints) and Paul Brown Stadium (Bengals)Clink uses what&#x27;s called FieldTurf so how are they 12-0 on the turf used at MetLife ?? and Manning&#x27;s playoff woes ? its called growing pains.. something Russell Wilson will prob have to go through, too

YNOT_15 · Answer

Same reason the Ravens were 4.5 point dogs last year and at one point lead 28-3.  And to correct you the Seahawks were the favorite at the open.  The public money moved the number to Denver.  At most books the Seahawks were a 1-2 point favorite at the open.  At worst at was pick em.  No where did you see the Broncos open as a favorite.  This is the first such instance since manning has donned the orange jersey.   Bronco&#x27;s have met their match &amp; the world will see it unfold on Sunday.  Just my opinion.  We are all entitled to them.  Good luck w whatever all you guys choose.

choiOi · Answer

That&#x27;s ravens team had a lot of experience....Seattle is a puppy when you compared to the Ravens (pit bull)

Crusher13 · Answer

Wow, hawks better get to Peyton in a hurry or you&#x27;re gonna be out 22.8k  At least you got some confidence going against Joe Q Public and Pretty Boy Floyd

YNOT_15 · Answer

Wow!! We gonna get down to the bitter technicality?  The point was that the surface is a field turf similar to what the Seahawks are used too.  They may be different but a Michelin tire and a "Jo Smo" tire are different too.  At the end of the day they are rubber, but very similar.  Grass vs. field turf.  That was the point. Growing pains?  Those happen in the first 4-5 years.  Not the last 5.  Should a veteran QB be going through growing pains at the end if his career like he did in the post season last year?  Committing the ultimate sin of a QB throwing back across the field rolling right as we saw him do &amp; cost his team the game.  I think it&#x27;s called history and things that happened, and will repeat under the same conditions.  Baltimore was able to bring a pass rush that game and force Peyton off his spot and too make poor decesions.  The same thing that Seattle will.  If you want to go back and forth all day till Sunday let&#x27;s do it.  I&#x27;m taking my stance you&#x27;re taking yours.  They say put your money where your mouth is and that&#x27;s what we will both do.  One of us will cash and one of us will not.  Good luck to you!!

YNOT_15 · Answer

If you&#x27;re scared got to church, not Vegas. I&#x27;m going to Vegas.  If I lose I lose.  Not the first, not the last.  Life will go on.  Also, just cuz Mayweather SUPPOSEDLY has 10 million on Denver doesn&#x27;t mean anything.  Does he or doesn&#x27;t he?  That&#x27;s the rumor.  He wins and loses like the rest of us.  I would never base my pick on what he&#x27;s doing.  Money means nothing to him.  10 million is a chip on the bucket.  Good luck on Sunday!

YNOT_15 · Answer

Only one way to gain winning experience.  Only one way to not be the puppy anymore.  Every team that has it does it, and that&#x27;s win against the best.  No better time than now!

Tmartntrouble · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by choiOi] Defense wins championships and Seattle is the best defensive team in the NFL bla bla bla.... Let me ask this question..,then why are they getting points???

Why are they not the fav? Or were? If all the stats, #s, point to them winning...why are the books chalking them points?

Because the spread opened as a pick'em and the public has a love affair with Peyton Manning who is 11-11 all-time in the Playoffs.

YNOT_15 · Answer

Yes, 11-11 or as Richard Sherman would say, "mediocre, mediocre...at best." He is however the greatest regular season QB of all time.

CC12 · Answer

u mad bro ? then u should be more clear and get ur facts straightif u wanna combine all &#x27;artificial&#x27; turf in to one, Seattle&#x27;s record is 12-1 (one loss coming at Indy which does use the exact same turf as CLink) but 8 of those games are HOME games.. WTFIn away games, Seattle is 3-1 on artificial turf. Winning at StL, Atl, NYG.. and losing to Indy. Wow those are some Football powerhouses they played.. (roll eye)Denver&#x27;s record on artificial turf is 2-2 losing in Indy and New England and winning @ NYG and Dallasyeah, so i can see the big advantage for Seattle u are talking about on this turfThere nothing for u and me to go back and forth about. i have no more time to waste correcting ur silly factsI thought u already put in ur wager.. but why don&#x27;t u just wait for LeagueCapper to help u decide if u made the right decision. LMAO

theclaw · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;Seattle has not padded their TO&#x27;s over a few teams.&#xD;&#xA;Seattle is 13-1-4 at winning the TO battle this season. Quite silly to suggest they padded their TO&#x27;s against a few teams.&#xD;&#xA;Denver is 5-8-5 , make no mistake about which team is far, far, far better at winning the TO battle.

YNOT_15 · Answer

If you&#x27;re pompous behind would have read my post where I put up my wager you would have noticed that my bet will not go in till Saturday. Regardless I&#x27;m on Seattle.  As a respected capper unlike yourself, League Capper always has a good write up.  Whether he&#x27;s on my side or not is irrelevant.  Just a good read.  As for you and your posts about how you were 6-0 on last years prop bets!  What a joke.  Who cares!  I was 1-0 and the prop I had was that the Ravens would take a 28-3 lead and then the lights would go out and the 9ers would make a comeback.  I hit it to!  Bet $1 to win a $1,000,000.  I knw, crazy!!  Take a hike bro...go give your money to a charity not a bookie.  Broncos will lose!!

YNOT_15 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by theclaw]  &#xD;&#xA;Seattle has not padded their TO&#x27;s over a few teams.&#xD;&#xA;Seattle is 13-1-4 at winning the TO battle this season. Quite silly to suggest they padded their TO&#x27;s against a few teams.&#xD;&#xA;Denver is 5-8-5 , make no mistake about which team is far, far, far better at winning the TO battle.  [/Quote]Thank you!  So if Denver has lost the turn over battle in 50% of their regular season games and 50% of their play off  games &amp; Seattle has won the battle in 97% of their regular season games &amp; 100% of their post season games what makes anyone think they could win this battle Sunday??  Again, 4 teams in 47 Super Bowls have won the Super Bowl but lost the turn over battle.  That tells me if the Seahawks win the turn over battle, and they will, they have a 91.48% chance of winning on Sunday.  We are using 47 games of data.  That&#x27;s a fair sample size.  Good luck to those backing Denver!  They will ends it...LOB is gonna be laying wood on the Broncos all night!

FadeThisXen · Answer

Even with a 5-8-5 turnover margin, the Broncos have outscored their opponents and posted the same record as the Seahawks in the regular season and post season.

What does that tell us? It indicates that the Broncos can win, even if they lose the turnover battle.

If the turnover margin is equal, the Broncos cover easily.

If the Seahawks are +2 turnovers, I think they have a chance to cover.

In my opinion, it's going to take +3 turnovers for the Seahawks to win this game.

You're wagering that kind of money on the Seahawks to win +3 turnover margin?

Why do I say +3 on turnovers? Because the Denver Bronco's offense has proven that it can win decisively, if the margin is equal.

It's 3 losses came when it lost the turnover battle, and even in those occurences, it was never a blowout.

During the regular season they lost 3 games, where they were -1, -1, and -2, by an average of 5.3 points.

Post season, they've went -2 turnovers vs the Chargers and won by seven. The margin was equal vs the Patriots at zero, and that game didn't even seem close.

My point...Seahawks force 2+ turnovers you'll see them cover.

I think if you're going to bet, you're better off betting odds on Manning interceptions and Seahawk turnovers, rather than the point spread.

The Denver Bronco's offense is just too polished to think that the Seahawks can dominate them by more than a score. I just can't fathom it. It seems more like the longshot than the reality, at least in my perspective.

Super Bowl XLVIII Write-up inside...

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