Super Bowl will be New England & Atlanta

I've noticed a trend over the years.  Some would call it common sense.  Why does Vegas make so much money? Because the public loses.  A lot.  This past season I didn't bother studying numbers, looking at matchups.  I read message boards like this, listened to "experts", read articles online.  Got a good sense of what people thought were the best bets on the board.  I would grab anywhere from 3-7 where the consensus was clear.

And I would bet the opposite.

My best year yet.  As the saying goes "the public only remembers what happenned last week".  Last week the Falcons barely held on to win & the 49ers beat up on the Packers.  Last week the Ravens won an emotional game (some call it top 5 all time) while the Patriots were just their normal selves.

Public is all over 49ers minus the points.  And the Ravens plus the points.  Public is stupid.  I'm not saying that the Falcons are a better team than the 49ers.  I think it's clear they are not.  But since when does the best team always win?  If that was true, Brady would have 5 Super Bowls at least.  If that was true, the Colts would not have made the playoffs.  If that was true, the Redskins sure as hell wouldn't have won the division.

Patriots cover.  Falcons win outright.

And we get 2 weeks of boring storylines for New England vs Atlanta.

Book it.

I've noticed a trend over the years.  Some would call it common sense.  Why does Vegas make so much money? Because the public loses.  A lot.  This past season I didn't bother studying numbers, looking at matchups.  I read message boards like this, listened to "experts", read articles online.  Got a good sense of what people thought were the best bets on the board.  I would grab anywhere from 3-7 where the consensus was clear.

And I would bet the opposite.

My best year yet.  As the saying goes "the public only remembers what happenned last week".  Last week the Falcons barely held on to win & the 49ers beat up on the Packers.  Last week the Ravens won an emotional game (some call it top 5 all time) while the Patriots were just their normal selves.

Public is all over 49ers minus the points.  And the Ravens plus the points.  Public is stupid.  I'm not saying that the Falcons are a better team than the 49ers.  I think it's clear they are not.  But since when does the best team always win?  If that was true, Brady would have 5 Super Bowls at least.  If that was true, the Colts would not have made the playoffs.  If that was true, the Redskins sure as hell wouldn't have won the division.

Patriots cover.  Falcons win outright.

And we get 2 weeks of boring storylines for New England vs Atlanta.

Book it.