STEELERS @ BILLS: The ultra-powerful angle@home and getting points too : "CAREER On The Line" angle

2016 Record: 37-16 (>68%)

The Pick:

Bills +3 (-115) Over Steelers

The first question will be, "Why take the points if you think the Bills will win?" For the same reason I did Army today: They are total fu**ups with their stupidity at the wrong times (you saw the Army turnovers today/ You saw the Bills against the Raiders in the 4th last week) so this added insurance in a line that should be a pick-um makes me feel very comfortable. I like feeling comfortable. A comfortable capper is a less-stressed capper and one that doesn't agonize the entire game. Which makes them a better capper. Which makes them enjoy capping and ensures they'll cap into the future.

The line is outrageous. Who is steaming this line under these circumstances? I'll tell you who, Anti-Rex bettors...squares and sharps alike. And I'm here to also tell you he'll win us this game.

1. T-Rex (Total Rex) angle combined with the Career on the Line angle.

You get it all here folks. T-Rex is one of my most unpopular angles. I've never called it that but it stands for "Rex will get us the win." Why don't they like this angle? Because they don't like Rex, or his brother for that matter.

And I understand that 100%. He's about a .500 winning-percentage coach over his career. Lost guys a lot of money on this site. Me? He's made me a boatload. Him and Darrell Hazell on Purdue. Darrell is gone forever. We profited off him while we have him. We have to do the same with Rex here. It's all about situational capping. And the situation here is as good as it gets: Career on the Line (COTL)

I LOVE the Job On The Line Angle for coaches on the hot seat. But Career on the Line is so much stronger.

And this is it for Rex. This is his career. He has to make the playoffs. If they don't make the playoffs, they have to get rid of him and his brother and start to rebuild. He knows this. 100% he knows this.

Many here will say he's already eliminated from the playoffs. That doesn't matter. What matters is what he and his players think. And here is what he is selling them right now (and he is the NFL's best salesman): We'll beat the Browns and Jets for certain so we are really 8-6. This win will put us at 9-6. Think about how much better that sounds in the players eyes.

Folks, if they get to the final game of the season with a flicker of playoff hope, you can cut all the players legs off and Rex will have them beat the Jets even if they are in wheelchairs like Tom Cruise in Born on the 4th of July. He's not losing that game. That is the Game of the Year if Denver complies (as does some other teams to leap frog).  He will turn them to dust and ash and then he'll collect all the ash and unrinate on it. There is no way he'll lose that game with the playoffs and career on the line. Let's hope for that game.

What matters is what HE thinks and what his players think NOT what you think about the Bills and the playoffs, and they still think they can make it, making nothing less than a win here against Pittsburgh acceptable.

He will throw the kitchen sink at them defensively. You will see it all. All the blitz packages, surprises, creative Rex. It will ALL be here in this game. Because it's his career. Pittsburgh has a hell of task in front of them because of this. Defensively they should go nuts. Blood should be on that field. Players will bleed for Rex if he convinces them. He will. It will be Total Rex.

Unpopular? Sure. And I've carried wheelbarrows of money away from the window because of it with Rex being responsible for that. So suit yourself on this one. I'm just putting it out there!

2. A full receiving core now available for Tyrod

Watkins? He's playing. Woods? He's playing. This is the first time they'll be playing together since Week 2. Charles Clay? Their tight end who missed the game last week for the birth of his child? He's playing.

They're all here folks. You know the running game is stout. Now the receiving core is. All the weapons are here. It's up to Tyrod to use them. Will he? I'll get to that.

Rex didn't even play coy waiting till kick-off to announce they were all playing. No more games. He said they'll play on Friday. He doesn't even care that the Steelers can now know they should prepare for them. No more games. Make the announcement get on the field and beat the shi* out of the opponent. End of story.

3. Tyrod - $30.75 million reasons to get up for this game.

Folks, the GM said NO! NO! NO! (literally) when asked if a decision was made on opting into Tyrod's extension on March 11, 2017.

Well guess what that is worth to him: $15.5 in signing bonus paid until 2021, $12 million in guaranteed 2017 salary and $3.25 million in guaranteed 2018 salary.

$30.75 million dollars IF he performs. We all know he's regressed this year but that was due in part to Rex going more ground and pound. He can play. We saw him play against Seattle.  

These pros care about money. That's what makes it different from college football. Factor in the money when you cap.

Not only is this mega-guaranteed money looming, but his career as a starter looms. That means you have to get it all from him. No excuses. We know how guys perform in their contract year. Given there is a very real shot the Bills can go 10-6 if they beat the Steelers, and that it can save Tyrod's job as a starter for this team even if they don't make the playoffs, and with all that guaranteed money looming, Tyrod should give optimal performance here.

Total Rex and Total Tyrod. It will be there tomorrow. Coaching and player. We know the receivers are there. We know McCoy will be McCoy and now we've given arguments for all sides of the ball to perform. And the D? Well that's on Rob. I know you don't love Rob but if his brother needs it, he has to give it. (and posters here hate Rob more than Rex, you'll hear that soon).

4. The Game vs. the Raiders

Folks, the Bills were the board darlings last week up 24-9. They had a lead going into the 4th. And then they imploded. But that still was a very tough spot! That game had the Bills going to the West Coast against an explosive offensive team that was 10-2. And the Raiders specialize in 4th quarter wins and covers this year. And it happened to the Bills. They imploded.

BUT, this is what Rex does. That implosion will make us money this week. Without that implosion, without that loss, we don't get this line or this spot or Total Rex. And that is what we need to bet this game, a game the Bills dominate for 2.5 quarters. So this loss last week was not nearly as bad as the final score nor was it as catastrophic as many make it out to be for the Bills playoff hopes. And we should be thankful for it because I wouldn't be posting this game if they won it. 

Why did they lose it? They abandoned the run. Won't happen again tomorrow. And that leads to the 5th point...

5. Steelers against the run.

6th in the league. That is what Steelers backers are banking on here aren't they.

But let's examine that. Their last 3 games? Where they have beefed up their Run D stats of late: Giants (31st) Colts (25th) Browns(26th) in the rushing offense.

Win win win. And this doesn't even speak to Tolzien QB'ing the Colt game and the Browns heading to 0-16 (and the Giants in a sandwich game before the Cowboy game).

How have they done of late against teams that have a superior rushing O in the previous 3 of 4 games before the Browns?

Cowboys 117 to Elliot

Patriots 127 to Blount

Dolphins 204 to Ajay

Oh look: They rank 2nd 6th and 8th in the league in rushing.

The results? Loss Loss Loss. And they lost to the Ravens who have the 28th rushing attack surprisingly.

Well now you get the #1 rushing attack. #1 in the league.

And you get Career on the line for Rex and Tyrod as a starter as well and a big payday, and a full receiving core. Are there advantages for the Steelers. Of course. They are 11th in total offense.

But we are at home, get a ridiculous steamed 3 as insurance, in Buffalo weather in December, with the Bills having everything to play for. 6-7? Season over. The Steelers have to take some solace in the fact the Ravens are playing at the Pats so a slip-up here might be forgivable.

Let the hate against Rex flow. He's paid me well. For many years. In spots just like this one. The choice is yours.

Is this write-up as strong as the Army over Navy write-up? NO! And it shouldn't be. That won't happen every week and you may only see angles like that once a year. So you cannot expect it in every cap you read.

Let the hate against Rex flow. He's paid me well. For many years. In spots just like this one. Again, whoever steamed this line is out of their mind. I have to take 3 if you give me 3. At home? COTL? Please. I'll take the 3 and make up the ML juice elsewhere. Tough game. Close game. But the Bills prevail. The choice is yours.

Scalabrine's 2016 NFL Record: 4-2-2

I bet big on Rex Ryan in the afc championship at Pitt and they fell behind 24-0 and was never in position to cover the +3.5 that loss set me back several years.  Love your work though.  

had a losing day

I like this angle, but even if he loses and gets fired at the end of the year, you know he will talk his way into another job for some other desperate team.

you didn't mention anything about buffalo defense?

Damn, Scal, that was a long post, way to friggin' long for most of us degenerates to comprehend, but appreciate the effort...I guess that's how you get to be HOF! 

the Steelers 2nd favorite in the Westgate contest this week selected 558 times as a contest -1 1/2 and current Westgate (Saturday) -3 even fav. NOT a good sign for their chances in Buffalo

i love this Scal i really do, this would be good for Baltimore cuz we need all the cushion we can get

Westgate Supercontest Consensus is 11-4 over the last three weeks. 

thanks scal u had me at bills +3 but I kept reading just to try to learn thing or two all great points u really have brain of a genius win or lose I will always go with your picks

Dude steelers won't lose this game, big storm tomorrow in buff but both these teams are headed in different directions. Your a great capper but I'm LARGE on steelers GL

Let's go brother. Missed the army navy play. But up looking and fantasy for my 8 leagues in which I made the playoffs in all. And I see you have been putting in work. Scal says it's t-Rex time. Then that's a go for me. BUFFALO +3 it is. Good luck to us brother. I'll always ride. Let's get this $

Ya see folks, this is where you know a guy is headed towards being a 'loser in life.'

And this is just a warning to him.

I used to post CFB, NFL and NBA separately. Why? It makes you look better in some areas.

So then I said, "Who am I as a capper? My overall record is who I am." It was an honest assessment. I now do not segregate records. For honesty. Even people who hate me here can vouch for this.

I did it to be more forthright. More honest. I don't post units because units can simply be Martingaled to profit (when you are long busted in real life).

So my record is up there this year in all sports. >68%.

So what does this future 'loser in life' do? He segregates the records in an attempt to make me look bad. Even though he too simple-minded to realize 4-2 is 66% (damn good). Even though if we further segregate my 7-1 record in the NFL last year, I'm 11-3 over two years which is almost 80%.

Even though, I got the absolute worst of the Dolphins Jets line and many here thanked me on that game because they got it at 3.5 which, effectively for posters here, puts me at 5-2 in the NFL which is 71% (better than damn good).

And this is the life of a troll. No love life. Abandon their family to sit at a PC and find new and creative ways to bash cappers who give out info, for nothing. Absolutely nothing. EVEN TO THE TROLL themselves.

This is how you know you're headed to being a 'loser in life'. Change quickly Porcelin. The future is not bright.

Doesn't show up in the St. John's winner after it hits. Why? This is the life of a cowardly troll.

Doesn't show up in the Penn State thread after it hits. Why? This is the life of the cowardly troll.

Doesn't show up in the Army Navy thread after it hits. Why? This is the life of a cowardly troll.

This is what they do. This is their life.

In front of a PC in search forums in gambling threads at 2am in the morning.  Can you believe it? Believe it. This is actually a living breathing birthed human being from a womb. Yes, this is what mom and dad have to be proud of....

Can

You

Believe

It....

Believe it.

Porcelain please. Focus your energy on women and procreation in the future instead of stalking anonymous cappers in gambling threads in the wee hours of the morning. For your own good. Try it. You may benefit from it.

Jrod, you have made a fool of yourself in three straight winners of mine and now you are putting a +1 to a troll who is somehow trying to bash a 66% winning percentage.

You cannot make it. This is what they do with their lives........you can not believe it until you see it. And you see it right here.

Mom and Dad. Be proud. These are your sons.

Stalkers on gambling websites bashing 66% W%'s...........

Sorry Mom and Dad. Sorry...

Your record in the NFL is 4-2-2. Everything else is irrelevant. 

Risk, always a faithful follower....

Trolls troll on. Win or lose the hate is always here. I haven't seen them yet. But they are coming for this one. I love the angles and I seen someone say you didn't talk about the defense. Yessir you did. They will throw the kitchen sink at Pittsburg and all the blitz packages they can. Read the write up. I don't think he left out nothing. I love the fact the ravens are playing the pats. It's a extra security blanket for ur. And that may be the strongest part of this win. If buffalo starts out hot and fast. The Steelers will start thinking about the ravens and pats matchup and this one could be over early. Let's go

I tried to tell Porcelin, this sad sack, that the more he touts his Supercontest record, the more we love to fade him. Because the Supercontest is now supersquare.

Even used your name telling him this last week.

Good info. Play-Action for Tyrod when he throws. HIs scrambling gives them another dimension to defend.

Derty BJ

Scal you're one of the brightest guys around but think about what you just said...do you really want this Porcelain guy to procreate lol?