This came from a previous article I read...............
Since the 2005 season, Monday Night home favorites are a healthy 46-33-1 ATS, hitting at 58.2%!
There
are a few things to look at in these games that show the value on the
rise. The first thing we want to do is handicap the total. What we find
really becomes rewarding as we don't want a pair of defensive teams
muscling it out to an ultra low total.
If the total in these games is at least 37 or higher, then the home favorite zooms to 44-26-1 ATS and our cover percentage goes up to 62.9%.
Bring both teams in off a win, so perhaps we have a less hungrier
opponent and we get 16-7 ATS (69.6%).
We then
can make sure we don't have an opponent that is hot and feeling it, so we
make sure they are not on a winning streak of more than one game. In
other words they lost two games back: 10-1 ATS including 9-0 since 2008!
We can also look at this 10-1 situation and if the line is greater than -3 it is 8-0 ATS
This came from a previous article I read...............
Since the 2005 season, Monday Night home favorites are a healthy 46-33-1 ATS, hitting at 58.2%!
There
are a few things to look at in these games that show the value on the
rise. The first thing we want to do is handicap the total. What we find
really becomes rewarding as we don't want a pair of defensive teams
muscling it out to an ultra low total.
If the total in these games is at least 37 or higher, then the home favorite zooms to 44-26-1 ATS and our cover percentage goes up to 62.9%.
Bring both teams in off a win, so perhaps we have a less hungrier
opponent and we get 16-7 ATS (69.6%).
We then
can make sure we don't have an opponent that is hot and feeling it, so we
make sure they are not on a winning streak of more than one game. In
other words they lost two games back: 10-1 ATS including 9-0 since 2008!
We can also look at this 10-1 situation and if the line is greater than -3 it is 8-0 ATS
Like the trend analysis. Not that you need additional support......
Since 2007:
Home favorites off a bye are 21-19-2 ATS
Favorites -7 or less coming off a bye week (where only the favorite is coming off the bye) are 30-17-3 ATS....60% hit rate.
This season (including this week), coming off a bye, teams are 7-2 ATS (Favorites are 2-1 ATS - if not for the Steelers stupid 2 pt win this would be 3-0...yep, Steelers fan here)
So, if you are a trend bettor, pretty much every single trend points to a Bears cover
My only fear is Cutler....which Jay Cutler is going to make an appearance? His passer rating is 12pts lower in prime time than his career passer rating and he is 11-11 in prime time games (4-7 as a Bear).
This game hurts my head.....haha....though I really do like your angle here - and Special Teams could be huge tonight for the Bears! BOL to all......
Like the trend analysis. Not that you need additional support......
Since 2007:
Home favorites off a bye are 21-19-2 ATS
Favorites -7 or less coming off a bye week (where only the favorite is coming off the bye) are 30-17-3 ATS....60% hit rate.
This season (including this week), coming off a bye, teams are 7-2 ATS (Favorites are 2-1 ATS - if not for the Steelers stupid 2 pt win this would be 3-0...yep, Steelers fan here)
So, if you are a trend bettor, pretty much every single trend points to a Bears cover
My only fear is Cutler....which Jay Cutler is going to make an appearance? His passer rating is 12pts lower in prime time than his career passer rating and he is 11-11 in prime time games (4-7 as a Bear).
This game hurts my head.....haha....though I really do like your angle here - and Special Teams could be huge tonight for the Bears! BOL to all......
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