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Seems like the perfect chance to take the Pats in a bounce back...

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Posted: #26

Week 5 in the NFL and as always I am looking for strange lines or lines that just don't make any sense. 

 

I see Cincy @ New England opened with the Pats -1.5 and now has swung to Cincy -1. Considering what we just witnessed on Monday night football which was a deballing and ugly castration of New England, with this kind of line offered up, which team do you think the money will be rolling in on????????????? If you answered New England, don't go away mad, but please go away. 

 

And of course we have some clowns out there that will say that New England -1.5 will produce a 50/50  split on the betting action...yeah and if your Auntie had balls, she would be your uncle. 

 

As an old pal in Vegas told me once, if it looks too good to be true then go the other way. IMO the linemakers want you to take the red rifle and Marvin Lewis' team. 

 

I understand the part about the Patriots sucking donkey dongs but this is a new week. If I owned a sportsbook and offered up an opener of New England -1.5, I would need narcotics to get through the week. Just sayin'. 

 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by BoldBets:

 
For you to say that the Jaguars or Browns(I could name more) for example are graded only .5 less for home field advantage compared to teams like Seattle/New Orleans/Green Bay/Denver is just flatout incorrect.


Man, I didn't say ANY of that!

I never mentioned ANY of those teams you mentioned... The Seahawks clearly have the strongst HF advantage of any team in the NFL... and the Saints and Broncos are probably next after that... so what do they have to do with this game?

The Pats do not have a great HF advantage until the weather starts to play a factor, in my opinion. 


Look! If you don't agree with my assessment, then go put your money where your mouth is, and make a wager on the Patriots this weekend... even tease it if you have to!
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by IgetMoney101:

New England will lose again.  Don't be fooled into thinking otherwise


Clearly, many on this thread are fools!
 
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Posted: #29
[Quote: Originally Posted by Shark_Attack] I give all teams 3 points for homefield... maybe 3.5 for a really big HF advantage. I might NE 3.5 if it's a blizzard, but otherwise their HF is no better than most teams.




 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by AussieDownUnder:

Hey Shark, can you please post a link to the pure points power ratings? Would like to check that out. Thanks mate


Sagarin's ratings index lists a couple of other PR sets (including Pure Points)... so that is where I referenced it:

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/nfl/sagarin/
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by Idprelude:

EN will win big on SNF......... Mark my words, come back here after the game.


I assume you mean NE (not EN)... I will be back, but you won't!
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by Shark_Attack:



Man, I didn't say ANY of that!

I never mentioned ANY of those teams you mentioned... The Seahawks clearly have the strongst HF advantage of any team in the NFL... and the Saints and Broncos are probably next after that... so what do they have to do with this game?

The Pats do not have a great HF advantage until the weather starts to play a factor, in my opinion. 


Look! If you don't agree with my assessment, then go put your money where your mouth is, and make a wager on the Patriots this weekend... even tease it if you have to!


You don't think the Patriots have a strong home field  i live next door to foxboro   since  2003 to present you can count the regular season loses on one hand  
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by Shark_Attack:



Man, I didn't say ANY of that!

I never mentioned ANY of those teams you mentioned... The Seahawks clearly have the strongst HF advantage of any team in the NFL... and the Saints and Broncos are probably next after that... so what do they have to do with this game?

The Pats do not have a great HF advantage until the weather starts to play a factor, in my opinion. 


Look! If you don't agree with my assessment, then go put your money where your mouth is, and make a wager on the Patriots this weekend... even tease it if you have to!


You don't think the Patriots have a strong home field  i live next door to foxboro   since  2002 to present you can count the regular season loses on one hand  
 
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Posted: #34
So what you are saying is the Jaguars have a 3 point home field advantage, but Seattle only gets an extra half point....just ridiculous.
 
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Posted: #35
Take the better team cinn is better on both sides 
Offense and defense  I know there are a lot of cappers that think 
The pats have a Chance to win  but really Cinny will run the ball 
And will take there shots down the field with AJ and Marvin coming back and win this game easily Gio and Hill will have there way with 
The Pats defense

 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by BoldBets:

So what you are saying is the Jaguars have a 3 point home field advantage, but Seattle only gets an extra half point....just ridiculous.

Man, give me a break already!  Don't take everything so literally!  Do I really have to make a spreadsheet with exact HF advantage ratings for every team in the NFL just to shut you up on this subject?

NO! I do not give Jacksonville 3 points for HF advantage... and NO! I do not only give Seattle 3.5 points!  I was just giving you ballpark numbers... because we are not talking about EITHER of those teams in this game!  Those teams have NOTHING to do with this game!

STFU up about those teams!


I give NE ROUGHLY 3 points, but not 3.5... their HF advantage is not that big this time of year!


For the last time... if you disagree with me... PUT OUR F&%*ING MONEY WHERE YOU MOUTH IS AND BET ON THAT SH!TTY TEAM THIS WEEK!
 
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Posted: #37
[Quote: Originally Posted by Shark_Attack] I give all teams 3 points for homefield... maybe 3.5 for a really big HF advantage.

Sure it is important and relevant. It is a way of showing your true line for this matchup (Bengals -7) is a joke.
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by BoldBets:

Yeah by his calculations Cincy is about 10 points better. Man would I like to see his power rankings!


This was your comment after I said Cincy should be favored by a TD in this game... that means YOU were calculating 3 pts for HF advantage in Foxboro!  And yet when I basically concurred with that (mainly because I just don't think HF is gonna mean jacksh!t in this game), you won't let it go...


Let me make it very simple... however many points you want to give NE for HF advantage, I stand by THIS STATEMENT:  The Bengals are 10 points better than NE on a neutral field!

If you think Foxboro is worth 10 points, then go ahead and take NE...

But I have no idea why you continue to bring up this irrelevant issue of HF advantage... I told you, Cincinnati is going to beat New England by at least 1 TD this week... you either agree or disagree, but I have already put my money on this game... if you disagree so strongly, then what I want to know is:

HAVE YOU PLACED A WAGER ON THIS GAME, OR ARE YOU JUST TALKING OUT YOUR A$$?
 
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Posted: #39
Rrriiigghhtttt....homefield for a team on primetime means nothing after getting destroyed on national t.v. a week earlier.....lmao!
 
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Posted: #40
No to mention you are probably the only person in the world with a true line of Bengals -7. I will let this go once you admit your number is way off.
 
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Posted: #41
[Quote: Originally Posted by Shark_Attack]
I give NE ROUGHLY 3 points, but not 3.5... their HF advantage is not that big this time of year!


By the way N.E. is 22-1 SU at home in the month of October since 2003. Yeah your right it isn't that big of a homefield advantage this time of year....hehe.
 
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Posted: #42
Bold Bets////

I'm thinking Sharky has probably wasted enough time with you.

I'm hoping he will just wait for the outcome of the game before he has anything else to add.

His bet is made...is yours?...never mind, don't answer, I don't care!
 
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Posted: #43
Yeah I would be done wasting someone's time as well if I gave out incorrect numbers throughout an entire thread than backtrack and look like an idiot.

By the way I will make a bet when I think I can get the best number in the market....not out of competition.
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by BoldBets:

Yeah I would be done wasting someone's time as well if I gave out incorrect numbers throughout an entire thread than backtrack and look like an idiot.

By the way I will make a bet when I think I can get the best number in the market....not out of competition.


I haven't back-tracked on Jacksh!t... you're an idiot, and Cooler is right!

Cincy (-7) is the CORRECT line on this game!

Come back after NE gets embarrassed!
 
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Posted: #45
I'll even help you out... here are two teams you can tease with the Pats, and they will both cover... one college, one pro:

Auburn (-1.5) and Seattle (-1.5)

Tease either of those with the Pats (+6.5) or (+7)... see how it turns out!  Both Auburn and Seattle will do their part... let's see if the Pats can handle their end of the bargain!
 
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Posted: #46
Did I once mention which side I liked in this matchup? Post the quote!

Yeah you can say Cincy rolls all you want, that is not what we are discussing here. But you not realizing this gives me grounds to give up on your embarrassing thread.
 
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Posted: #47
After reading everything you have written in this thread....I wouldn't follow your plays if I had lost 9000 plays in a row.
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by chillinmcm:

Cincy D off a bye against Pats on a short week. Look out

Why do people put so much weight on a week 4 bye week?  Do you think the Bengals practiced during the bye week and coaches studied film all week?  No, they go see their families or go on vacations and be lazy for a week before coming back.  Maybe if this was week 12 and the guys got some much needed rest but I think everyone vastly overestimates what an early bye week does.  That Ginger Dalton probably strolled into the facility Monday morning with an awful sunburn and inflated ego.  

The Bengals are going to have to play very good football to pull this one out, go ahead and plan on AJ Green being erased from the game.  
 
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Posted: #49
Sure Cincy could win by 4000 points, but making your true line -7 is a huge overreaction. Give me proof of anyone in the world that would have come up with that line and I might soften my stance.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by Triceratops:


Why do people put so much weight on a week 4 bye week?  Do you think the Bengals practiced during the bye week and coaches studied film all week?  No, they go see their families or go on vacations and be lazy for a week before coming back.  Maybe if this was week 12 and the guys got some much needed rest but I think everyone vastly overestimates what an early bye week does.  That Ginger Dalton probably strolled into the facility Monday morning with an awful sunburn and inflated ego.  

The Bengals are going to have to play very good football to pull this one out, go ahead and plan on AJ Green being erased from the game.  


Especially after the changes to the new collective bargaining agreement. These players practically get a week long vacation. Sure maybe they are a bit more prepared, but of course he doesn't mention that there is the possibility of them being a bit rusty.
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