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Seems like the perfect chance to take the Pats in a bounce back...

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Posted: #1
But it isn't!  This team is terrible, and the Bengals will eat them for dinner!  Bengals should be favored by a TD in this game, but people (a) still put way too much confidence in B&B, and (b) don't give enough credit to the Bengals, who are arguably the best team in the AFC this year...

Pats are not even a playoff team, and the Bengals are the cream-of-the-crop in their conference... take the money and run!
 
Legend
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Posted: #2
I will be on Cincy. 
 
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Posted: #3
So will I... cuz I already bet them at a Pick'em (-120), and also teased them with Auburn (Cincy +6.5 / Aub -1.5)... one of the best picks of the NFL season so far!

Remember, the Bengals are coming off their bye week, while NE has a short week to prepare... this will be a cakewalk, and the people who are betting on NE in a bounceback role after getting blown out, are fools!
 
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Posted: #4
You think Cinci should be favored by a TD in Foxboro?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
Yeah by his calculations Cincy is about 10 points better. Man would I like to see his power rankings!
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by FeedMeCappers:

You think Cinci should be favored by a TD in Foxboro?


Yes! That line would give the Pats almost a 50% chance of covering... actually, that is probably optimistic!

But don't take my word for it:  put the Pats on a 6 pt. teaser with your favorite College or Pro pick this week, and watch them spoil it for you on Sunday night...

This team is 2-2 against: Miami, Minnesota, Oakland and KC... those teams are a combined 3-9 against the rest of the league, and one of their wins was KC over Miami...

If you think NE isn't among the worst teams in the NFL, sit back and watch the rest of this season, because at some point they are going to lose AT LEAST 5 games in a row... probably 6!

NO JOKE!
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by BoldBets:

Yeah by his calculations Cincy is about 10 points better. Man would I like to see his power rankings!


Put your money where your mouth is, and take NE on a teaser this week... meanwhile I will reverse tease the Bengals up to -6... let's see who's smarter!
 
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Posted: #8
Incidentally, "Pure Points," which is specifically used for predicting spreads in games, and is widely recognized as one of the best "Power Ratings" (not "Rankings!"), currently lists Cincy as being 7.5 points better than NE... and after next week, they too will have Cincy 10 points better than NE...
 
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Posted: #9
What's more important my misspelling or you admitting to your overreaction by your last post? Does "pure points" take home field into account?
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by BoldBets:

What's more important my misspelling or you admitting to your overreaction by your last post? Does "pure points" take home field into account? I thought we were talking about this week, now you are fast forwarding to week 6?
 
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Posted: #11
You said I would put Cincy 10 points better than NE, meaning you were subtracting 3 pts for homefield...

I said PP puts Cincy 7.5 points better than NE... meaning with HF advantage they have the correct line at Cincy (-4.5)... 

I was not fast forwarding to week 6... I am explaining that PP adjusts their Power Ratings (don't tell me you "misspelled" ratings and it came out "rankings") on a weekly basis... and after this week's game, PP will (CORRECTLY) have Cincy 10 points better than NE...


Pure Points is good... but they are not perfect!
 
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Posted: #12
My mistake, maybe I am incorrect but did you not say the line should be -7 for the Bengals? So how many points do you give for N.E.'s home field?
 
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Posted: #13
Doesn't the home/road dichotomy factor for the Bengals come into play here as well?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #14
What I get out of this is you give N.E. the same home field as lets say the Jaguars?
 
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Posted: #15
I give all teams 3 points for homefield... maybe 3.5 for a really big HF advantage. I might NE 3.5 if it's a blizzard, but otherwise their HF is no better than most teams.

Not sure why you think HF plays such a big factor in what I'm saying... it's about the disparity between the two teams... if Cincy is 10 points better than NE, and I think Cincy should be favored by a TD, then NE has 3 pts for HF advantage.

Do you think they deserve more than that?


My point is that Cincy is miles ahead of NE on a neutral field, and they aren't going to overcome that gap simply because of HF advantage...

Also, you are forgetting (or discounting) the fact that Cincy will have had 8 more days to prepare for this game than NE... 8! I put much more weight into those 8 extra days than I do HF advantage...
 
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Posted: #16
No I am not forgetting any of those factors.... I get you. Having said that, the line being released is pick em or pick em with juice on the Bengals side. If you make the line -7, you actually think you are getting 7 points of value and the linesmakers are that far off? The reasons you just explained don't add up to 7 points in my mind or probably anyone else's for that matter.

For you to say that the Jaguars or Browns(I could name more) for example are graded only .5 less for home field advantage compared to teams like Seattle/New Orleans/Green Bay/Denver is just flatout incorrect.
 
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Posted: #17
Not to mention, Bengals -7 means you are giving N.E. no home field advantage when you just mentioned you give every home team 3 to 3.5 points. So actually the points you just made which are valid add up to 10 points on your lowest home field advantage grade......wow! Am I missing something?
 
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Posted: #18
I don't know much about foots but enough not to be on Cincy .
 
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Posted: #19
I am not saying Cinci is the wrong side and I know there is a difference between a true-line and a line that is actually released for betting.
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by Shark_Attack:

But it isn't!  This team is terrible, and the Bengals will eat them for dinner!  Bengals should be favored by a TD in this game, but people (a) still put way too much confidence in B&B, and (b) don't give enough credit to the Bengals, who are arguably the best team in the AFC this year...

Pats are not even a playoff team, and the Bengals are the cream-of-the-crop in their conference... take the money and run!

I agree with this play.  Bengals also coming off of a bye, and Pats on short week.  Great spot for Bengals to get a WIN here.  Pats are not a great team this year.
 
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Posted: #21
New England will lose again.  Don't be fooled into thinking otherwise
 
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Posted: #22
Cincy D off a bye against Pats on a short week. Look out
 
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Posted: #23
EN will win big on SNF......... Mark my words, come back here after the game.
 
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Posted: #24
TAKE THE SAINTS FOR WEEK5
 
 
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Posted: #25
Hey Shark, can you please post a link to the pure points power ratings? Would like to check that out. Thanks mate
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