*** Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers *** +39 units in October

Quote Originally Posted by kamphil:

The Lions were down 23-13 in the fourth quarter and came back to win the game in overtime, does that mean the Chicago Bears would be the play on Monday night?

Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

What a beatdown the Giants gave the 49ers last week. It was a huge revenge game for the 49ers and they got completely outclassed. The moral of thursday's play depends on whether or not you think the 49ers will be flat off the big loss, or pissed. I'd take the latter for a few reasons.

First, home teams rarely get beatdown like that twice in a row. Even the shitty Jets who were shutout 34-0 to the 49ers came back and put up a solid performance against the Texans the week after at home.

Second, the seahawks have a big head right now. They just came back from a 13 point deficit in the 4Q to beat the Patriots. Lot of young players on that team were still talking about it and boasting about it days after. Not a good recipe when you have an angry 49ers team coming up in a few days.

There's also a few other things going against the Seahawks, teams always struggle the week after a big 4Q comeback win as an underdog. It is too emotionally draining. Want proof?

Teams who are losing by 10 or more points after the 3Q and win the game are 4-12 ATS the following week the past 5 years. In road games that drops to just 2-7 ATS.

This Year:

Lions come from back from down 13 in the 4Q to the Rams to win.
Week after lose 19-27 to the 49ers

Rams come back from down 15 in the 2nd half and 9 or 10 in the 4Q to beat the Redskins.
Week after lose 23-6 to the Bears

Jets come back from down 10 to the Dolphins late to win in OT.
Week after lose 34-0 at home to the 49ers.

Chiefs come back from down 11 in the 4Q to beat the Saints.
Week after lose 37-20 at home to the Chargers.

Raiders come back from down 10 in the 4Q to beat the Steelers.
Week after lose 37-6 in a divisional game against the Broncos.

Seahawks come back from down 7 to beat the Packers in the 4Q.
Week after lose to the Rams by 6.

Falcons come back from down 6 in the 4Q to beat the Panthers.
Week after win against the Redskins by 7 but were tied and Redskins had all the momentum before RG3 got injured and left the game. (I think backup QB came in and threw 1 or 2 picks if i'm not mistaken.)

Cardinals come back from down 10 in the 4Q to beat the Dolphins.
Week after lose 17-3 in a divisional game to the Rams.

Packers come back from down 6 late in the 4Q to beat the Saints.
Week after blow a 21-3 lead and lose to the Colts.

I like the 49ers in this spot but not too fond of the spread. This will most likely be a run oriented slow game so points will be hard to come by but Seahawks will have more trouble scoring. I'll take the 49ers -7 small but putting them in a few teasers is a wise decision.

140550761-1	10/15/12 1:37am	$230.00	$200.00	Pending	10/18/12 8:25pm  NFL Football  304 San Francisco 49ers -7 -115* vs Seattle Seahawks
140501616-1	10/14/12 8:17pm	$337.50	$250.00	Pending	2 Team Teaser (ties push) Teaser tp 7½fb & 5½bk
				Win	10/14/12 8:30pm  NFL Football  231 Green Bay Packers +11½ * vs Houston Texans
				Pending	10/18/12 8:25pm  NFL Football  304 San Francisco 49ers -1 * vs Seattle Seahawks

Quote Originally Posted by DaKid:

Very small sample but food for thought.  Personally I'm going to wait, I can't bet SF -7' but if it comes down to 6' I pounce.

Quote Originally Posted by brown22:

LC great job! Just wondering if you think there is any value in the over? I see this game a little like last weeks packer game. An angry 9ers team will be ready to play and maybe i was thinking to tease it down to over 32 and SF -1. Also TT for SF over 22. What do you think? Your 2 cents would be appreciated. Good luck and much success!!!!!!!

Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Teams who are losing by 10 or more points after the 3Q and win the game are 4-12 ATS the following week the past 5 years. In road games that drops to just 2-7 ATS.

Quote Originally Posted by DoctorButcher:

Here are the last 3 years games when Seattle plays San Fransisco in San Fran.

2011: San Fransisco 33-17 over Seattle
2010: San Fransisco 40-21 over Seattle
2009: San Fransisco 23-10 over Seattle

Here is the one "telling" stat in those victories as well

Seattle had 9 total turnovers in those 3 games in San Fran while the 49ers had a turnover rate of 0. Including 5 in their 2010 match.

The play here is San Fran -7,good luck on whomever you take and may you win tenfold.

Quote Originally Posted by seattleseahawks:

Quote Originally Posted by DoctorButcher:



All i'm showing is a consistent play. Seattle does quite poorly in San Fran. Seattle hasn't changed that much last two years.

Seattle #11 in total defense and #22 total offense
This year #12 in total defense and #31 total offense where are they much improved even thou we are just at week 7 they degraded at offense actually.