Season Win Totals and Future Plays

Well Football is back and I can't wait. The following is what I have going into the season and I also included some write ups for food for thought. Of course all these plays are contingent on everybody staying healthy which will not happen so as with all plays projecting to the end of the season they are a big risk, especially in the NFL.

Win Totals:

Atlanta Falcons UNDER 8.5

St. Louis Rams UNDER 5.5

New Orleans Saints OVER 9

Green Bay Packers OVER 8.5

Dallas Cowboys OVER 9

Cincinnati Bengals OVER 6.5

Futures:

Green Bay to win NFC North: +225

New Orleans to win NFC South: +180

Atlanta UNDER 8.5

How often have we seen this story before? A young team comes out of nowhere, beats up on a soft schedule, and overachieves masking the fact that their defense sucks. This Falcons team is a carbon copy of the 2007 Saints and 2008 Browns. Teams that were great the year before with a very good offense and shit defense who came out and shit the bed due to a number of factors. The same thing will happen to the Falcons this year. Atlanta's defense was horrid last year and they would have been even worse had the Falcons not played ball control on offense. This defensive line has John Abraham and John Abraham only. And what have they done to improve? NOTHING! Did you know only Kansas City, Detroit and Denver gave up more yards per carry than Atlanta's horrific 4.9 YPC last year? Their D will be exposed this year and more importantly this young team has expectations! And when they start losing, questions will be asked, players/coaches/team officials will start feeling the heat, people will start losing their cool and get frustrated and before you know it you have a meltdown and the season is lost. This is football, not rocket science. We've seen this exact situation too many times before. The Falcons also have a brutal schedule for a team with no D. btw - Did the Falcons have a single injury all of last season?

St. Louis UNDER 5.5

I've looked up and down this team (and all teams for this matter) for a while and this line looks the most whacked IMO.

I realize you can't make a total too low because of variance and margin etc but this team is HORRIFIC. Really. This IMO will be the worst team in the NFL this season. Their reward will be Sam Bradford but it will be an extremely painful trip getting there.

This team has nothing. NOTHING! I think this offense will be tragically bad. Jason Brown was a nice signing at center I'll give them that but who knows what you're going to get out of a rookie left tackle and the rest of the O-line sucks. They have no WR at all. Marc Bulger is going to take an absolute pounding yet again this season. Steven Jackson is the only good player they have and defenses will be stacking up against him all year, I think he'll see little if any running room. And injuries have to be a concern with Bulger and Jackson, not just because of the pounding they will take but because of their history. Which brings up their backups. Kyle Boller and Brian Leonard are currently behind Bulger and Jackson on the depth chart and you know they will be playing this year, Jesus christ!

The defense is also just terrible. This D-line is a joke. They lost their best linebacker from last year and their secondary is questionable at best. They'll also be on the field a hell of a lot IMO because of the ineptness of the offense.

Why so much respect? Because of the new coach? I don't buy it. Spagnuolo was a good coordinator but he had a ridiculous amount of talent on that Giants defense. They won't miss a beat in NY without him this year. There is no talent here. Not one member of this Rams defense would start on that Giants D and most of them would be 3rd stringers. GL, Spags. And where is the veteran presence in the locker room for this relatively young team? Who is going to keep the team together and their heads in the game when things go south? Where's Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Orlando Pace? Do they expect Marc Bulger to be a presence in this room? LOL, come on! Steven Jackson? Please.

I understand they have a relatively "light" schedule but this team is horrific and UNDER 5.5 wins at this price looks like an absolute GIFT. I strongly believe they win 3 games at most.

New Orleans & Green Bay


I lumped these teams together because quite frankly they are very similar. Both teams should have very good offenses, in fact IMO top 5 offenses. They have good lines, great QB's, very deep receiving and TE groups to go along with what should be good run games as well. Bottom line is both these teams should be able to move the ball at will. It's the defenses that will determine how many games they win.

Last season both these teams lost a ton of close games and that was largely due to the defense. But this season with what I think will be improved defenses, a few of those close losses should turn into close wins. Green Bay has implemented the 3-4 defense this year and while many people are skeptical and are saying it will take time to adjust, I say they will be good right away. This Green Bay D has a lot of talent believe it or not and on all levels too. The secondary is good, the linebackers should be good and up front they have a lot of beef and some good players coming off injury that are buying into the new system (Johnny Jolly in particular). There is also surprising amount of depth all across this defense with a mix of vets and some young good players (BJ Raji, Clay Matthews). The depth isn't just a nice security blanket in case of injuries but it will allow players to be subbed in to keep the main guys fresh. This should pay big dividends down the stretch as players get worn down.

The Saints are in the same boat. They have some talent and should improve this year. Charles Grant and Sedrick Ellis are key pieces on the D-line that were banged up last year and missed time and just weren't the same players when they came back. The same goes for corner Tracy Porter who was looking like a steal in last years draft before he broke his wrist and was out for the year. His return coupled with 1^st round pick Malcolm Jenkins should be a major boost to a Saints secondary that has been the teams weakness for some time. Also improving the secondary should be Darren Sharper. Although he is aging he should be an improvement over what New Orleans had last year and more importantly he will act as a mentor to the young guys.

Both these teams should improve enough defensively to compliment their great offenses and push them towards 10 wins.

Dallas Cowboys OVER 9

I think Dallas is going to be pretty good this year. I disagree about there being pressure on them. There is almost no pressure on them as most predict Philly/Giants to finish 1-2 in this division. In fact if I'm on the Cowboys I'm feeling disrespected!!

The defense should be pretty good again and more stable with Wade taking over there full time. I think Romo has a good year. He won't be asked to air it out like before and he won't have T.O. yelling at him to throw it to him. Dallas' offense is looking sneaky good. I like this receiving group. Roy Williams now has a full year under his belt and should be much better. Sam Hurd has looked excellent in camp. Witten is a stud and everybody please remember the name Martellus Bennett, freaky athletic TE that the Boys will look to get the ball to when he's lined up opposite Witten. But the key here is this will be a ball control run first team IMO with a big O-line clearing holes for Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, 3 very capable backs. This run attack could be deadly pounding away all game. And this will let Romo manage the game more and be a better QB. He won't be asked to do as much. The only question I do have is there isn't much depth on the O-line and if a couple of the vets break down it could be a big problem but there is too much to like IMO.

Think about it for a second. This is a team with a pretty good defense, big O-line, what looks like a devastating running game (with depth and outstanding change of pace backs) and all of that is protecting a QB who could excel in this style of offense. We saw three teams like this last season, the Giants, Titans and Ravens and they finished 13-3, 13-3 and 11-5 respectively.

Keep an eye on the Boys.

Cincinnati OVER 6.5


I like this team with a healthy Palmer back. In fact I wouldn't be shocked if they pushed for or even made the playoffs.

A lot of people are saying this defense was a fluke last year when they somehow finished 12^th overall. I disagree. There is finally some talent on this side of the ball and they are buying into a good scheme under Mike Zimmer who came in last year. The 12^th overall ranking last year really is astonishing when you consider this offense was pathetic last year after Palmer went down and they lost some key players for over half the season (Keith Rivers, Johnathan Joseph). The Bengals ranked 21^st in rush yards allowed per game last year but most of that was due to teams running the clock out on them. They actually finished 10^th in YPC which I think is a much more telling stat at 3.9 which is a very good number. They also finished 13^th in YPA against in the pass game so this defense was no fluke. They should be good again this year as they are healthy and have some good talent at linebacker and the secondary as well as defensive tackle (Domato Peko and Pat Sims could be very good by season's end, both are big and can move so they can play the run and rush the passer). There is also some good depth here. If they can get some improved play from the ends this could be a Top 10 defense. As they are they are certainly good enough to win games.

Another big key here is a healthy Carson Palmer. This guy is one of the best QB's in the league and has looked sharp so far. He also has a very solid if not underrated group of receivers. The only real weakness is the O-line/ run game. If the Bengals get those in gear they could push for the playoffs. If not they should still be a good enough team with a good defense and veteran QB/receivers to eclipse 6.5 wins.

Predictions for fun on the playoff teams:

NFC East: NY Giants

NFC North: Green Bay

NFC South: New Orleans

NFC West: Arizona

Wildcards: Dallas, Minnesota

AFC East: New England

AFC North: Pittsburgh

AFC South: Indianapolis

AFC West: San Diego

Wildcards: Houston, Baltimore or Cincy

As far making plays on Futures to win the AFC/NFC and Superbowl, I think there is just too many variables to do that. As I have said injuries are probably the biggest factor and are almost unpredictable so making bets in 16 and 32 team leagues are very risky and not worth it at the start of the season IMO. Playing on Team win totals and to win the division are big enough gambles. Besides, teams come out of nowhere down the stretch to make runs at the big game nowadays. Better to wait til the playoffs or closer to the playoffs to bet on a team to win the superbowl if you are going to.

Good luck this year.

Hey buddy good to see you again. We had a great discussion heading into the season about these O/U win totals in baseball. We liked a lot of the same, I don't know what you played but I should come out ahead barring anything unforeseen and overcome the collossal disasters of the Cleveland Indians and Arizona D-Backs. A nice run by the Twins to get OVER 84 would be sweet.

Yeah man I agree on the Bengals. I'm liking this team more and more. This isn't the most talented O-line but they reportedly have a streak of nasty which could be even better news for this team. If this o-line plays well I honestly believe this team could make the playoffs.

As far as the Skins go, I don't know. They don't turn me on. They should with what is a pretty good defense (4th overall last year). Seems like the D overachieved a bit last year but there was talent and adding Haynesworth and Orakpo (who has apparently been beast-like) they should be up there again this year but I don't like the offense. I've never been a fan of Jason Campbell and quite frankly I think the excuse of "he's been in a different system every year" is crap. He's had his chances and IMO it's clear he's never going to be more than mediocre. Don't like the recievers and I'm still waiting for Clinton Portis to tap out. He's great when healthy but plays so hard he's injured all the time. He completely fell apart down the stretch last year as the injuries caught up to him. And it might just be my outside observation but would you want to play for Jim Zorn?

Honestly, I get the same "meh" feeling towards the Bills. I think they are lacking a pass rush and this O-line has some work to do. I thought I read 4 new starters and 2 of them rookies? Blah. Their special teams and home team advantage will keep them in games but I'm not sold they will be much more than average. And the same question can be posed here, would you want to play your guts out for Dick Jauron?

How about I fire a couple back at you. What do you think of the Texans and Eagles?

...........good shit

Great stuff again Glyde.

It's scary how much we think alike.

"I think they are at about the same place they were last year.  Good, young, promising squad in a tough fucking division.  Lot of O, mediocre D."

"Their defense should be improved slightly from last year.  I don't think they are gonna be porous like the Falcons or the Broncos last year, but I also don't think they are gonna be good either."

"I guess at the end of the day, they are a good team.  Indy should take the division, but I think they have a fair shot winning 9 or 10 and beating out Tennessee for 2nd place and maybe a wild card."

I could not agree with you more on those points regarding Houston, I think they are spot on. I like this team. I want them to do well for some reason. They are like the kid brother who always gets beaten up by his older brothers until the day he grows up and is as big and strong as them and can handle them. But man, there's just a little something holding me back and I think it's the defense I just don't think I'm completely sold. I think they can get 9 or 10 wins and make the playoffs but I sure as heck wouldn't bet on it.




Yeah, I was on Philly big last year. Really thought they could win it all too about 1/3 of the way through. After McNabb was benched and all the shit went down I thought it was a major blessing in disguise and added even more on them to take it all. It was way too much but overall even though they didn't win the Superbowl I came out ahead as I pounded them from that Thanksgiving game on. I'm still sick thinking about McNabb throwing away the game in the 1st half of the NFC Championship game.

Perhaps it's the bitter taste left in my mouth from last year but for some reason I'm not feeling Philly this year. I pretty much knew all along last year that McNabb or Andy reid would fuck it all up and I can't trust them again.

The team does look pretty good though. But Jim Johnson's death really scares the piss out of me. As does Brain Dawkins not being there. Also, Stewart Bradley who may have been the most underrated player in the league last year is a huge loss for the year at middle linebacker. Victor Abriamiri is also out for an extended period and they were counting on him to be a big contributor rushing the passer.

I don't know, I'm turned off of the Eagles.

Cincinnati OVER 6.5   Only one I'm on.

GL with the rest of 'em. 

nice thread by the way. 

Right back at ya. Nice to see you posting as well. Hope you post throughout the season and we can discuss more.

Man have they looked good in the preseason. I watched the last game against Arizona and was thoroughly impressed. The offensive line is playing unreal and they could be a real darkhorse as a sleeper unit in this league. Aaron Rodgers has remarked that he has hardly been touched in preseason and he had all day against Arizona's first stringers the other day. Granted, Arizona, Cleveland and Buffalo don't have dominate fronts and it's only preseason but damn have they looked good.

Aaron Rodgers is a pimp. This receiving corps is sick and there has been lots of talk of Jermicheal Finley at TE and damn did he look good the other day. Call me crazy but I truly believe that Aaron Rodgers is going to have a Tom Brady/Peyton Manning type year this season. I don't see any props for MVP but if Aaron Rodgers is a crazy price then I am IN!

And the defense looks good as well. The players are really buying into Dom Capers and the 3-4, it's great to see. Even if it takes a little while for the younger front 7 to gel the Packers are still backed up with a very good, veteran secondary that should take some of the heat off the front 7. They were very good against the pass last season and if they can even marginally improve against the run I think they win 10 games. Also as I think I mentioned above there is crazy depth on this defense, not the most talented guys buy guys with high football IQ's and can play.

I have GB +225 to win this division and feel like I'm stealing. I don't know maybe I've gotten too goo-goo eyed but I really like this team. Could be a major darkhorse in the NFC.


On another note: LT Jammal Brown out a month for the Saints with a sports hernia. Sounds like an injury that could linger all season.

Blah.

I'd want more than that.