Posted:
#1
Got some time and wanted to share this. I have watched the week 6 game again on tape this morning and I've got an equal angle as on the Packers/Cards game. This game is going to be completely different.
Previous game angle: In week 6, the Seahawks were in terrible shape, coming into this game 2-3 while the 4-0 Panthers were on revenge from the playoffs and off their bye week. Seahawks were without their defensive playcaller Bobby Wagner and backup Kevin Pierre-Louis struggled to defend Greg Olsen. I had the feeling he wasn't a piece of the Cover 3 zone defense. Cary Williams was starting on the outside, yeah the guy who wasn't good enough for Philly and has been released. On the two scoring drives in the 4th quarter, the Hawks had a lot going against them, penalties and bad personnel. The Panthers sometimes lined up Olsen on either Williams or Pierre-Louis or searched the soft zone spots between Williams and Pierre-Louis who just couldn't handle it. I am completely serious that the Seahawks would have won easily with the current personnel. The Seahawks OL was still TERRIBLE. They found their groove down the stretch but not in week 6. The Panthers were with CBs Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere who are both out this time, and this my friends, is a massive downgrade! Good old Cortland Finnegan (200 snaps this season) will be on Doug Baldwin who has been lights out this year. Especially the nickle defense will suffer from the losses of Tillman and Benwikere. The Seahawks still had a 24-13 lead with 6 minutes to go. This time they won't blow it.
Schedule angle: If you look at Cam Newton's numbers, you will notice that he has been an average QB this season. Yeah he runs it in and put up some decent numbers against poor defenses but that's it. The Panthers offense played the WORST schedule of all teams. They rank #1 in PPG, #9 in NYPPA, #9 in Pass DVOA, #6 in DVOA run. Their schedules:
PPG: #31
NYPPA: #32
DVOA Pass: #32
DVOA Run: #28
Before the season started, we were talking about how this team is going to score with this OL and receiving corps. We had them as a bottom-15 offense. Now they have put up top-10 numbers against the worst schedule possible. Look how they are going to struggle against this Seahawks defense clicking on all cylinders. They totally shut the Vikes down last week. Without the failed punt, they had allowed 2 FGs on the road. Also the Panthers defense has put up some very good numbers, but again - poor SOS. #25 DVOA Pass, #30 DVOA Run, ect.
Matchup angle: The Seahawks are clearly the better team here, that's for sure. They are very close from the 2013 team. If you take away their first 6 games in which they really struggled due to some personnel issues and focus on their L10: they are better than 2013. The Panthers would have been a 9-7 team in the NFC West.
Line-reading: Doing this to prevent some line discussions. The people who love reading into lines will probably agree: this line is hilarious. Based on public perception, the 15-1 Panthers should be -3.5 to -6.5 favs to the Seahawks who barely won at Minny on a missed FG. -2 for the home team looks like a joke.
Trend angle: Since 2003, favs off a bye week are 17-31 ATS in the playoffs. Public favs are 4-17 ATS (>50% of the bets) - don't know if this is true because I can't track back public percentages, i just read it. Dogs off regular season revenge are 36-19 ATS in the playoffs. And so on and so on.
Take Seattle Seahawks ATS or ML
Line is climbing right now so I will try to get +3. Posting the final line later. Will take Seahawks TT over as well.
Pending: Pats +1 / Steelers +15.5 -110
Previous game angle: In week 6, the Seahawks were in terrible shape, coming into this game 2-3 while the 4-0 Panthers were on revenge from the playoffs and off their bye week. Seahawks were without their defensive playcaller Bobby Wagner and backup Kevin Pierre-Louis struggled to defend Greg Olsen. I had the feeling he wasn't a piece of the Cover 3 zone defense. Cary Williams was starting on the outside, yeah the guy who wasn't good enough for Philly and has been released. On the two scoring drives in the 4th quarter, the Hawks had a lot going against them, penalties and bad personnel. The Panthers sometimes lined up Olsen on either Williams or Pierre-Louis or searched the soft zone spots between Williams and Pierre-Louis who just couldn't handle it. I am completely serious that the Seahawks would have won easily with the current personnel. The Seahawks OL was still TERRIBLE. They found their groove down the stretch but not in week 6. The Panthers were with CBs Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere who are both out this time, and this my friends, is a massive downgrade! Good old Cortland Finnegan (200 snaps this season) will be on Doug Baldwin who has been lights out this year. Especially the nickle defense will suffer from the losses of Tillman and Benwikere. The Seahawks still had a 24-13 lead with 6 minutes to go. This time they won't blow it.
Schedule angle: If you look at Cam Newton's numbers, you will notice that he has been an average QB this season. Yeah he runs it in and put up some decent numbers against poor defenses but that's it. The Panthers offense played the WORST schedule of all teams. They rank #1 in PPG, #9 in NYPPA, #9 in Pass DVOA, #6 in DVOA run. Their schedules:
PPG: #31
NYPPA: #32
DVOA Pass: #32
DVOA Run: #28
Before the season started, we were talking about how this team is going to score with this OL and receiving corps. We had them as a bottom-15 offense. Now they have put up top-10 numbers against the worst schedule possible. Look how they are going to struggle against this Seahawks defense clicking on all cylinders. They totally shut the Vikes down last week. Without the failed punt, they had allowed 2 FGs on the road. Also the Panthers defense has put up some very good numbers, but again - poor SOS. #25 DVOA Pass, #30 DVOA Run, ect.
Matchup angle: The Seahawks are clearly the better team here, that's for sure. They are very close from the 2013 team. If you take away their first 6 games in which they really struggled due to some personnel issues and focus on their L10: they are better than 2013. The Panthers would have been a 9-7 team in the NFC West.
Line-reading: Doing this to prevent some line discussions. The people who love reading into lines will probably agree: this line is hilarious. Based on public perception, the 15-1 Panthers should be -3.5 to -6.5 favs to the Seahawks who barely won at Minny on a missed FG. -2 for the home team looks like a joke.
Trend angle: Since 2003, favs off a bye week are 17-31 ATS in the playoffs. Public favs are 4-17 ATS (>50% of the bets) - don't know if this is true because I can't track back public percentages, i just read it. Dogs off regular season revenge are 36-19 ATS in the playoffs. And so on and so on.
Take Seattle Seahawks ATS or ML
Line is climbing right now so I will try to get +3. Posting the final line later. Will take Seahawks TT over as well.
Pending: Pats +1 / Steelers +15.5 -110
0
Agree 100%, this Seahawks team is clicking at the right time, I already took SEA +2, if the line gets to +3 I'll add 1 more U. "Public money" (take it for what its worth) is all over CAR and the line has not gone over -3...it is indeed a "joke".
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