Been eyeing this one for a couple weeks...out of left field here we go let's back an undrafted QB.
Buccaneers +2.5(-110) *1.10/1.00
Buccaneers ML(+115) *.65/.75
Aaron Rodgers is 2-3 su in his career playing at Raymond James stadium. This is all with the Packers ofcourse, when he was younger for 2 of them. The offense averaged 18.25 ppg in these games. 2 with LaFleur, 2 with Mccarthy.
The Packers and Steelers are cold weather teams, they don't go to Florida very often. The Bucs will wear white, leaving the Steelers wearing black or those weird throw backs that are grayish and ugly. 81 degrees at kickoff. Assuming some humidity, it's Florida.
Betting against Rodgers while backing Jalon Daniels feels like a tough sell from the peripherals. Betting on a 1-4 team vs a 3-2 team as well....
Fwiw:
Aaron Rodgers PFF grade 65.9. That's not an Arod of old #.
Jalon Daniels 57.3. He's had only 2 starts. Vs GB he scored a 65 qbr, then a 110.2 vs the Cowboys. Is the arrow still pointing up? I have no clue. But hey this kid was the first undrafted rookie to ever lead a winless team to a win in the nfl.
The Steelers expected win/loss record is 2.6-2.4, slightly worse than their record.
The Bucs expected win/loss record is 2.2-2.8. Slightly over a full game better than their current record.
Luck rating: Pitt +0.5(#10) vs the Bucs -1.3(#29). This is the department of stats where we can anticipate regression to the mean.
SOS: Pitt #24, Tampa #15, the Bucs have had a slightly tougher road.
DVOA: Pitt #14, Tampa #12. Yes, TB is #12 in dvoa with a 1-4 record, kind of nutty.
Red zone trips: The Steelers have had only 11, a league low tied with the Browns. They've converted 54.5% TD's. The Bucs have had 17 redzone trips, converting 47.1% TD's.
This will be the Bucs 4th home game in 6 weeks. Also, they are coming off a Thursday night game providing 2 extra days of rest and prep.
This will be the Steelers 3rd road game in 6 weeks. All of their wins have been at home so far, 2 of which were against dome teams.
From an x's and o's perspective:
The Steelers don't blitz too much, 26.9%. They also run zone coverage at a high clip 83.2%. Jalon Daniels has shown a much better comp % and qbr vs zone so far. He has been putrid vs man. Will he sees only 11.1% of that from Pitt? If you ask me, Patrick Graham is a simple DC. He doesn't change things up much. Expect a lot of Nickel as well. I see Bucky Irving.
Tampa blitzes a lot, 41%. Arod has not been good against it this year. Having only a 53.8% blitzed rate completion percentage, and throwing 56.4% catchable balls against the blitz.
The Steelers run play action pass at a very low rate of 13.3%, and have a relatively high shotgun rate of 64.6%. Welcome to Mike Mcarthy football.
For those of you who have watched the Buccaneers defense, the last thing you want to do against their defense is dropping straight back without play action. Their corners are great, and their d line rushes well. Bowles loves dialing up the blitz against straight passes. When all 11 guys know it's a pass, all of their jobs become easy.
Injuries: The Steelers are missing a bunch of WR's. Roman Wilson and Ben Skowronek were knocked out of action vs the Colts and will miss this game. Michael Pittman is still on IR.
I'd expect that the public will be on Pittsburgh like flies on shit, why wouldn't they be? It's an easy bet for the regular Joe.
And for the old school gamblers that have the gut instincts...Is this a Steelers line? Short fav otr vs an uncommon opponent?
I say no 
GL 
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