Well, unfortuantely we can't win either. If you took the RAMS +6.5 earlier, you would have been a winner. This is the first week we have not had a play. There are two more games however. The TAMPA game may present an opportunity.
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Well, unfortuantely we can't win either. If you took the RAMS +6.5 earlier, you would have been a winner. This is the first week we have not had a play. There are two more games however. The TAMPA game may present an opportunity.
Well, we shall have to see about the TAMPA game tonight. The closing line may present an opportunity. I will return around halftime of that game. This is exciting
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Well, we shall have to see about the TAMPA game tonight. The closing line may present an opportunity. I will return around halftime of that game. This is exciting
Looks like the line in the Tampa game is at -10.5. For this to be a possible play, the most likely scenario would be for Tampa to be up by exactly 3 at the break.
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Looks like the line in the Tampa game is at -10.5. For this to be a possible play, the most likely scenario would be for Tampa to be up by exactly 3 at the break.
I sense a Shut out or maybe Seattle will try to get 3 points in this game. TB is moving the ball at will against the Seahawks and Bucs are getting the ball in the 2nd half.
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I sense a Shut out or maybe Seattle will try to get 3 points in this game. TB is moving the ball at will against the Seahawks and Bucs are getting the ball in the 2nd half.
LOL. No I took BUCS -5.5, knowing the line would get pushed up. It is now at 6.5 at most books. Still will be a no play for the system, however - even if it gets pushed up to -7.
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LOL. No I took BUCS -5.5, knowing the line would get pushed up. It is now at 6.5 at most books. Still will be a no play for the system, however - even if it gets pushed up to -7.
Please see other posts about NJPorky's 2H betting system as I will not explain it here. Earlier in one of his threads (for those of you truly following his threads), I wrote about how qualifying teams with his system would fare when the 2H spread was a TD or more (+/- 7 or higher) regardless of the size of the middle. The key is to find a 2H line of 7 or more and figure out which team, if covering, would cause the middle to miss.
A middle is the difference between a team's pre-game betting line and that team's effective in-game betting line taking into account the halftime score and the second half line.
While doing some number crunching on Porky's system, I discovered this trend two weeks ago, and decided to back-test this to the beginning of the season. 11 such occurrences have happened this year where the 2H line was 7 or greater. There appear to be about 1-2 games per week that fall into this situation. Here are the YTD results.
WK 1 - CHI +10 @ IND () - middle 8.5 WK 2 - TEN -7 @ CIN () - middle 7 WK 3 - CIN +7 @ NYG () - middle 9 WK 3 - MIA +7.5 @ NE () - middle 19 WK 4 - KC +7 vs DEN ( - middle 5 WK 4 - OAK +7 vs. SD () - middle 16.5 (an Oak meltdown in the 4th QTR caused this to lose) WK 4 - WAS +8 @ DAL () - middle 9 WK 5 - CIN +7.5 @ DAL () - middle 2.5 WK 6 - DET +7 @ MIN () - middle 7 WK 6 - STL +7 @ WAS () - middle 8 WK 6 - CLE +7 vs. NYG () - middle 4.5-5 Road teams are a perfect 8-0 using this modified system!! With Porky's system, he uses a 10-pt middle. If we put that stipulation on our teams, we would only be 1-1 YTD. Also note, that not all plays are on 2H dogs!!
So with this tightener (of +/- 7 on the 2H line) and a loosener (selecting all teams regardless of the middle), I was able to find this. I will start playing some small bets this week and see what comes of it.
Credit goes to NJPorky for the original contrarian system. I am tracking this, but so far I am loving the results. You may wish to play these small in conjunction with his tweaked system in the NFL. So far his tweaked system is hitting 71% YTD.
I will keep an eye out this Sunday for any games falling into this category and post as necessary. Let's bring home the loot baby!!!
ADD:
Week 7 - STL +7 @ DAL 17.5 middle
Week 8 - KAN +7 @ NYJ 7 middle
12-1 (92%) YTD....Amazing Kangy!!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by usakangy:
Please see other posts about NJPorky's 2H betting system as I will not explain it here. Earlier in one of his threads (for those of you truly following his threads), I wrote about how qualifying teams with his system would fare when the 2H spread was a TD or more (+/- 7 or higher) regardless of the size of the middle. The key is to find a 2H line of 7 or more and figure out which team, if covering, would cause the middle to miss.
A middle is the difference between a team's pre-game betting line and that team's effective in-game betting line taking into account the halftime score and the second half line.
While doing some number crunching on Porky's system, I discovered this trend two weeks ago, and decided to back-test this to the beginning of the season. 11 such occurrences have happened this year where the 2H line was 7 or greater. There appear to be about 1-2 games per week that fall into this situation. Here are the YTD results.
WK 1 - CHI +10 @ IND () - middle 8.5 WK 2 - TEN -7 @ CIN () - middle 7 WK 3 - CIN +7 @ NYG () - middle 9 WK 3 - MIA +7.5 @ NE () - middle 19 WK 4 - KC +7 vs DEN ( - middle 5 WK 4 - OAK +7 vs. SD () - middle 16.5 (an Oak meltdown in the 4th QTR caused this to lose) WK 4 - WAS +8 @ DAL () - middle 9 WK 5 - CIN +7.5 @ DAL () - middle 2.5 WK 6 - DET +7 @ MIN () - middle 7 WK 6 - STL +7 @ WAS () - middle 8 WK 6 - CLE +7 vs. NYG () - middle 4.5-5 Road teams are a perfect 8-0 using this modified system!! With Porky's system, he uses a 10-pt middle. If we put that stipulation on our teams, we would only be 1-1 YTD. Also note, that not all plays are on 2H dogs!!
So with this tightener (of +/- 7 on the 2H line) and a loosener (selecting all teams regardless of the middle), I was able to find this. I will start playing some small bets this week and see what comes of it.
Credit goes to NJPorky for the original contrarian system. I am tracking this, but so far I am loving the results. You may wish to play these small in conjunction with his tweaked system in the NFL. So far his tweaked system is hitting 71% YTD.
I will keep an eye out this Sunday for any games falling into this category and post as necessary. Let's bring home the loot baby!!!
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) - middle 8.5
) - middle 16.5 (an Oak meltdown in the 4th QTR caused this to lose)
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