Posted:
#1
Please see other posts about NJPorky's 2H betting system as I will not explain it here. Earlier
in one of his threads (for those of you truly following his
threads), I wrote about how qualifying teams with his system would fare
when the 2H spread was a TD or more (+/-
7 or higher) regardless of the size of the middle.
The key is to find a 2H line of 7 or more and figure out which team, if covering, would cause the middle to miss.
A middle is the difference between a team's pre-game betting line and that team's effective in-game betting line taking into account the halftime score and the second half line.
While doing some number crunching on Porky's system, I discovered this trend two weeks ago, and decided to back-test this to the beginning of the season.
11 such occurrences have happened this year where the 2H line was 7 or greater. There appear to be about 1-2 games per week that fall into this situation. Here are the YTD results.
WK 1 - CHI +10 @ IND (
) - middle 8.5
WK 2 - TEN -7 @ CIN () - middle 7
WK 3 - CIN +7 @ NYG () - middle 9
WK 3 - MIA +7.5 @ NE () - middle 19
WK 4 - KC +7 vs DEN ( - middle 5
WK 4 - OAK +7 vs. SD (
) - middle 16.5 (an Oak meltdown in the 4th QTR caused this to lose)
WK 4 - WAS +8 @ DAL () - middle 9
WK 5 - CIN +7.5 @ DAL () - middle 2.5
WK 6 - DET +7 @ MIN () - middle 7
WK 6 - STL +7 @ WAS () - middle 8
WK 6 - CLE +7 vs. NYG () - middle 4.5-5
Road teams are a perfect 8-0 using this modified system!! With Porky's system, he uses a 10-pt middle. If we put that stipulation on our teams, we would only be 1-1 YTD. Also note, that not all plays are on 2H dogs!!
So with this tightener (of +/- 7 on the 2H line) and a loosener (selecting all teams regardless of the middle), I was able to find this. I will start playing some small bets this week and see what comes of it.
Credit goes to NJPorky for the original contrarian system. I am tracking this, but so far I am loving the results. You may wish to play these small in conjunction with his tweaked system in the NFL. So far his tweaked system is hitting 71% YTD.
I will keep an eye out this Sunday for any games falling into this category and post as necessary. Let's bring home the loot baby!!!
The key is to find a 2H line of 7 or more and figure out which team, if covering, would cause the middle to miss.
A middle is the difference between a team's pre-game betting line and that team's effective in-game betting line taking into account the halftime score and the second half line.
While doing some number crunching on Porky's system, I discovered this trend two weeks ago, and decided to back-test this to the beginning of the season.
11 such occurrences have happened this year where the 2H line was 7 or greater. There appear to be about 1-2 games per week that fall into this situation. Here are the YTD results.
WK 1 - CHI +10 @ IND (
) - middle 8.5WK 2 - TEN -7 @ CIN (
) - middle 7WK 3 - CIN +7 @ NYG (
) - middle 9WK 3 - MIA +7.5 @ NE (
) - middle 19WK 4 - KC +7 vs DEN (
- middle 5WK 4 - OAK +7 vs. SD (
) - middle 16.5 (an Oak meltdown in the 4th QTR caused this to lose)WK 4 - WAS +8 @ DAL (
) - middle 9WK 5 - CIN +7.5 @ DAL (
) - middle 2.5WK 6 - DET +7 @ MIN (
) - middle 7WK 6 - STL +7 @ WAS (
) - middle 8WK 6 - CLE +7 vs. NYG (
) - middle 4.5-5Road teams are a perfect 8-0 using this modified system!! With Porky's system, he uses a 10-pt middle. If we put that stipulation on our teams, we would only be 1-1 YTD. Also note, that not all plays are on 2H dogs!!
So with this tightener (of +/- 7 on the 2H line) and a loosener (selecting all teams regardless of the middle), I was able to find this. I will start playing some small bets this week and see what comes of it.
Credit goes to NJPorky for the original contrarian system. I am tracking this, but so far I am loving the results. You may wish to play these small in conjunction with his tweaked system in the NFL. So far his tweaked system is hitting 71% YTD.
I will keep an eye out this Sunday for any games falling into this category and post as necessary. Let's bring home the loot baby!!!
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