@williamwallace I hear you and he's right Personally, I haven't paid juice for 3 years. All of my plays are ML dogs or Alt lines favs.
just curious why you wouldnt pay juice if you still found value somewhere? Boxing/ UFC/Soccer are mostly what i am thinking about personally, but value is still value. If you see a football ML that your numbers feel it should be -200 but it's -130, you still don't take it?
Bagel Sandwiches Suck
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Quote Originally Posted by unplucked_gem:
@williamwallace I hear you and he's right Personally, I haven't paid juice for 3 years. All of my plays are ML dogs or Alt lines favs.
just curious why you wouldnt pay juice if you still found value somewhere? Boxing/ UFC/Soccer are mostly what i am thinking about personally, but value is still value. If you see a football ML that your numbers feel it should be -200 but it's -130, you still don't take it?
Suppose there are two football games that I feel have a player advantage. Let’s say each has a 55% chance of winning, and I have to lay 110. Which is more profitable, to bet the games straight up or as a single parlay?
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@unplucked_gem
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/sports
It’s covered here ^^ under the question…
Suppose there are two football games that I feel have a player advantage. Let’s say each has a 55% chance of winning, and I have to lay 110. Which is more profitable, to bet the games straight up or as a single parlay?
You raised an interesting question that vanzack could help with. If you found two plays that had value over the book, but were both -150 What would the math say about parlaying those to get positive money.
Great question on a widely misunderstood topic... Parlays.
Parlays are often panned as being square or a sucker bet. Because they mostly are. But understanding why they are, enables you to take advantage of when they are actually good bets.
So why are parlays bad? Because the house hold is usually huge. Same topic as the original post here. Reducing house hold is paramount - and when you get a fixed odds parlay (like 3 teams for 6-1) you are getting scalped. These are stay away.
But what about when you get REAL odds parlays? That means it is a true odds accumulator, with no additional juice taken out. This is when parlays make sense (also, assuming these are running concurrently and not at different times).
Basic Principle: If you have an edge on several individual events - a true odds parlay INCREASES your overall edge.
It is the same concept as -EV events. When you parlay -EV events (like coinflips at -110), you are compounding your losses. But when you parlay +EV events, you are compounding your winnings.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Quote Originally Posted by unplucked_gem:
You raised an interesting question that vanzack could help with. If you found two plays that had value over the book, but were both -150 What would the math say about parlaying those to get positive money.
Great question on a widely misunderstood topic... Parlays.
Parlays are often panned as being square or a sucker bet. Because they mostly are. But understanding why they are, enables you to take advantage of when they are actually good bets.
So why are parlays bad? Because the house hold is usually huge. Same topic as the original post here. Reducing house hold is paramount - and when you get a fixed odds parlay (like 3 teams for 6-1) you are getting scalped. These are stay away.
But what about when you get REAL odds parlays? That means it is a true odds accumulator, with no additional juice taken out. This is when parlays make sense (also, assuming these are running concurrently and not at different times).
Basic Principle: If you have an edge on several individual events - a true odds parlay INCREASES your overall edge.
It is the same concept as -EV events. When you parlay -EV events (like coinflips at -110), you are compounding your losses. But when you parlay +EV events, you are compounding your winnings.
First of all, great stuff. Love these threads/topics where everyone can get better.
There have been many times you mention offhand that you’ve got some on the ML and some on the spread (you only track spread for simplicity, I get that). Can you share what cases would make you take both? On the surface, one should be a better price/line combo than the other. I’d guess limits are a big factor, and you could also potentially see some value in diversifying, but would love you thoughts.
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@vanzack
First of all, great stuff. Love these threads/topics where everyone can get better.
There have been many times you mention offhand that you’ve got some on the ML and some on the spread (you only track spread for simplicity, I get that). Can you share what cases would make you take both? On the surface, one should be a better price/line combo than the other. I’d guess limits are a big factor, and you could also potentially see some value in diversifying, but would love you thoughts.
Everything you have said is true and is working for you. Most betters are not at the point of buying and selling lines. Or extreme mathematics. Take it for what it is worth for the average bettor which is 95% money management is the key to staying in the game and maybe making a profit.
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@vanzack
Everything you have said is true and is working for you. Most betters are not at the point of buying and selling lines. Or extreme mathematics. Take it for what it is worth for the average bettor which is 95% money management is the key to staying in the game and maybe making a profit.
We need exchange betting widely available here in the US.
Brick and mortar deals garbage lines with some exception (Westgate -105 football lines on Thursdays…another book I think dealt -105 during one round of March Madness).
I’m not sure the legalities of offshore betting specifically to the state I’m in.
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We need exchange betting widely available here in the US.
Brick and mortar deals garbage lines with some exception (Westgate -105 football lines on Thursdays…another book I think dealt -105 during one round of March Madness).
I’m not sure the legalities of offshore betting specifically to the state I’m in.
Quote Originally Posted by vegasrebel417: Do you have a favorite metric with football? Where does DVOA and net yards per play rank for you in evaluating line/price? With DVOA not available CFB is this partially a reason you bet smaller units there due to variance? Thanks in advance. DVOA is the single best tool a rec gambler can use. It is $59 a year. I wish DVOA had recency sorting - like they did when it was FO - because when you get late in the season like we are now there isn't much value in weeks 1-8 stats mixed in and they can throw everything off. I use DVOA as a sanity check - but my adjusted stats are self generated and run through many subjective and objective calculations. I bet smaller units in CFB compared to NFL because I find in my personal case there is more variance. That changes every year. But for now - I do better in NFL than CFB.
Not saying the NFL is easier to cap than CFB at all.....but it stands to reason there is more variance simply because their are 100 more teams and each team has at least 32 more players (or more). Nearly impossible to gauge certain values....even SOS and DVOA should be taken with a grain of salt (especially before mid season).
Van
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by vegasrebel417: Do you have a favorite metric with football? Where does DVOA and net yards per play rank for you in evaluating line/price? With DVOA not available CFB is this partially a reason you bet smaller units there due to variance? Thanks in advance. DVOA is the single best tool a rec gambler can use. It is $59 a year. I wish DVOA had recency sorting - like they did when it was FO - because when you get late in the season like we are now there isn't much value in weeks 1-8 stats mixed in and they can throw everything off. I use DVOA as a sanity check - but my adjusted stats are self generated and run through many subjective and objective calculations. I bet smaller units in CFB compared to NFL because I find in my personal case there is more variance. That changes every year. But for now - I do better in NFL than CFB.
Not saying the NFL is easier to cap than CFB at all.....but it stands to reason there is more variance simply because their are 100 more teams and each team has at least 32 more players (or more). Nearly impossible to gauge certain values....even SOS and DVOA should be taken with a grain of salt (especially before mid season).
Quote Originally Posted by unplucked_gem: You raised an interesting question that vanzack could help with. If you found two plays that had value over the book, but were both -150 What would the math say about parlaying those to get positive money. Great question on a widely misunderstood topic... Parlays. Parlays are often panned as being square or a sucker bet. Because they mostly are. But understanding why they are, enables you to take advantage of when they are actually good bets. So why are parlays bad? Because the house hold is usually huge. Same topic as the original post here. Reducing house hold is paramount - and when you get a fixed odds parlay (like 3 teams for 6-1) you are getting scalped. These are stay away. But what about when you get REAL odds parlays? That means it is a true odds accumulator, with no additional juice taken out. This is when parlays make sense (also, assuming these are running concurrently and not at different times). Basic Principle: If you have an edge on several individual events - a true odds parlay INCREASES your overall edge. It is the same concept as -EV events. When you parlay -EV events (like coinflips at -110), you are compounding your losses. But when you parlay +EV events, you are compounding your winnings.
Are you saying you support my UDMLPs
0
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by unplucked_gem: You raised an interesting question that vanzack could help with. If you found two plays that had value over the book, but were both -150 What would the math say about parlaying those to get positive money. Great question on a widely misunderstood topic... Parlays. Parlays are often panned as being square or a sucker bet. Because they mostly are. But understanding why they are, enables you to take advantage of when they are actually good bets. So why are parlays bad? Because the house hold is usually huge. Same topic as the original post here. Reducing house hold is paramount - and when you get a fixed odds parlay (like 3 teams for 6-1) you are getting scalped. These are stay away. But what about when you get REAL odds parlays? That means it is a true odds accumulator, with no additional juice taken out. This is when parlays make sense (also, assuming these are running concurrently and not at different times). Basic Principle: If you have an edge on several individual events - a true odds parlay INCREASES your overall edge. It is the same concept as -EV events. When you parlay -EV events (like coinflips at -110), you are compounding your losses. But when you parlay +EV events, you are compounding your winnings.
I consider myself an analytical bettor. Betting on +100 or greater line is fading the public since the public likes betting on favorites.
Since most NFL games end in +3 field goal and +7 touchdown. I go for alt lines of +3.5 if the game is a close field goal game and alt lines of +7.5 if the game is a close touchdown game. The .5 to prevent the push. Though buying points will juice the lines.
That Alabama game turned out to be a touchdown game. The +7.5 was the winning play for Alabama. -2.5 winning play for Michigan.
If the underdog is live, you bet the moneyline +100 or greater.
If the favorite will win, you bet the -2.5.
If the favorite will win and blowout their opponent by 2 touchdowns, you bet alt line -13.5
0
I consider myself an analytical bettor. Betting on +100 or greater line is fading the public since the public likes betting on favorites.
Since most NFL games end in +3 field goal and +7 touchdown. I go for alt lines of +3.5 if the game is a close field goal game and alt lines of +7.5 if the game is a close touchdown game. The .5 to prevent the push. Though buying points will juice the lines.
That Alabama game turned out to be a touchdown game. The +7.5 was the winning play for Alabama. -2.5 winning play for Michigan.
If the underdog is live, you bet the moneyline +100 or greater.
If the favorite will win, you bet the -2.5.
If the favorite will win and blowout their opponent by 2 touchdowns, you bet alt line -13.5
I consider myself an analytical bettor. Betting on +100 or greater line is fading the public since the public likes betting on favorites. Since most NFL games end in +3 field goal and +7 touchdown. I go for alt lines of +3.5 if the game is a close field goal game and alt lines of +7.5 if the game is a close touchdown game. The .5 to prevent the push. Though buying points will juice the lines. That Alabama game turned out to be a touchdown game. The +7.5 was the winning play for Alabama. -2.5 winning play for Michigan. If the underdog is live, you bet the moneyline +100 or greater. If the favorite will win, you bet the -2.5. If the favorite will win and blowout their opponent by 2 touchdowns, you bet alt line -13.5
0
Quote Originally Posted by PepeFrog:
I consider myself an analytical bettor. Betting on +100 or greater line is fading the public since the public likes betting on favorites. Since most NFL games end in +3 field goal and +7 touchdown. I go for alt lines of +3.5 if the game is a close field goal game and alt lines of +7.5 if the game is a close touchdown game. The .5 to prevent the push. Though buying points will juice the lines. That Alabama game turned out to be a touchdown game. The +7.5 was the winning play for Alabama. -2.5 winning play for Michigan. If the underdog is live, you bet the moneyline +100 or greater. If the favorite will win, you bet the -2.5. If the favorite will win and blowout their opponent by 2 touchdowns, you bet alt line -13.5
I consider myself an analytical bettor. Betting on +100 or greater line is fading the public since the public likes betting on favorites. Since most NFL games end in +3 field goal and +7 touchdown. I go for alt lines of +3.5 if the game is a close field goal game and alt lines of +7.5 if the game is a close touchdown game. The .5 to prevent the push. Though buying points will juice the lines. That Alabama game turned out to be a touchdown game. The +7.5 was the winning play for Alabama. -2.5 winning play for Michigan. If the underdog is live, you bet the moneyline +100 or greater. If the favorite will win, you bet the -2.5. If the favorite will win and blowout their opponent by 2 touchdowns, you bet alt line -13.5
Pepe - not sure you understood the idea of the thread.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Quote Originally Posted by PepeFrog:
I consider myself an analytical bettor. Betting on +100 or greater line is fading the public since the public likes betting on favorites. Since most NFL games end in +3 field goal and +7 touchdown. I go for alt lines of +3.5 if the game is a close field goal game and alt lines of +7.5 if the game is a close touchdown game. The .5 to prevent the push. Though buying points will juice the lines. That Alabama game turned out to be a touchdown game. The +7.5 was the winning play for Alabama. -2.5 winning play for Michigan. If the underdog is live, you bet the moneyline +100 or greater. If the favorite will win, you bet the -2.5. If the favorite will win and blowout their opponent by 2 touchdowns, you bet alt line -13.5
Pepe - not sure you understood the idea of the thread.
Beginner here: I know I'm late to the party on this thread, but I had a question about house hold and the relationship to line/price. For example, this morning the DAL game on Fanduel had the lowest hold (out of the mainstream books) at 4.3%, but they had DAL at -120. Other books were all at -115 with the lowest hold being 4.55%. All books had -7 for DAL.
I'm assuming I'm prioritizing the -115 over -120 despite the 0.2% difference in house hold in the situation.
I guess my question is, how do I utilize info about house hold when making decisions? Would I be looking at hold% only if the lines/price are the same across all books as the deciding factor for which book to choose? I'm not understanding how to use this info to my advantage.
Thank you for being an invaluable resource for us all!
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@vanzack
Beginner here: I know I'm late to the party on this thread, but I had a question about house hold and the relationship to line/price. For example, this morning the DAL game on Fanduel had the lowest hold (out of the mainstream books) at 4.3%, but they had DAL at -120. Other books were all at -115 with the lowest hold being 4.55%. All books had -7 for DAL.
I'm assuming I'm prioritizing the -115 over -120 despite the 0.2% difference in house hold in the situation.
I guess my question is, how do I utilize info about house hold when making decisions? Would I be looking at hold% only if the lines/price are the same across all books as the deciding factor for which book to choose? I'm not understanding how to use this info to my advantage.
Thank you for being an invaluable resource for us all!
"The easiest way to determine the line / price value for rec gamblers is to simply look at the house hold. If the main line has a 16 cent spread (-108 on each side), and the ML has a 20 cent spread (-110 on each side), you should be betting the main line. If you are more advanced, you can get more precise with assigning value that might overcome a higher house hold."
________________________
Some interesting info here....
Can you give us a real world example, using some current or previous college bball lines from Pinnacle / Fanduel or some other sportsbook? Thanks.
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@vanzack
"The easiest way to determine the line / price value for rec gamblers is to simply look at the house hold. If the main line has a 16 cent spread (-108 on each side), and the ML has a 20 cent spread (-110 on each side), you should be betting the main line. If you are more advanced, you can get more precise with assigning value that might overcome a higher house hold."
________________________
Some interesting info here....
Can you give us a real world example, using some current or previous college bball lines from Pinnacle / Fanduel or some other sportsbook? Thanks.
Sometimes, the truths worth finding are buried. Only those willing to dig ever discover what lies beneath.
Hello, Van. You strike me as a thoughtful man. Would you be open to connecting. I have a number of questions, and I suspect the answers aren't all found on the surface.
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@vanzack
Sometimes, the truths worth finding are buried. Only those willing to dig ever discover what lies beneath.
Hello, Van. You strike me as a thoughtful man. Would you be open to connecting. I have a number of questions, and I suspect the answers aren't all found on the surface.
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