All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

Preview of the 2014 Miami Dolphins

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 33588
Posts: 304
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 6196
Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by Jimmus:


By those stats, you're expecting to win the game with Lamar Miller and Knowshon Moreno (for the record, I think they're better as a tandem than Vereen and Ridley, but whatever).

Using last years game (without Gronk and with Amendola as their #2 receiver) isn't comparable in my opinion.  

Love your analysis all in all.  It's definitely biased, but despite the bias you actually manage to be informative and insightful. 

Best of luck this year! 

Gronk is playing, so IMO if this game was played 10 times, Miami would win about 4.3 times out of 10.

Last year in New England week 8. Gronk and Edelman played, and Miami held a 17-3 at halftime. Dimitri Patterson got injured right around halftime, and the Pats went on to abuse Nolan Carroll and ended up winning 27-17. I truly believe that if Patterson did not get hurt, Miami wins that game. Patterson was a beast last year when healthy. He had like 3 interceptions in 4-5 games, but he could never ever stay on the field.

Miami always plays the Pats tough, and its true that their secondary might be the best Miami faces all year. However, Miami has 4 'dangerous' weapons in the receiving core (including Clay) and 2 really good possession receivers. I don't care how good your Secondary is, in todays NFL it is damn near impossible to lock down 6 good pass catchers.

Week 1 is definitely the hardest week to cap I feel like because of all the uncertainty. However I definitely see this game going down to the wire.

Also a quick note, you mention that Gronk and Amendola didn't play in Miami's week 14 win last year. Well, Miami was starting a guy at the nickel corner (Michael Thomas) who was on their team less than 10 days, and was one of the last guys to make the team this year. Both teams had injuries they needed to overcome. 

Goodluck this season. 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 6196
Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by FadeThisXen:

Too many offensive line questions - also the fact that they're under a new offense.  Tannehill is good, no question, but the fact that he has to constantly deal with pressure, lack of a run game, and a porous defense in a tough division means they're going to underwhelm in games that count.  Against poor teams, they'll look decent.

- Their first team offensive line has looked much, much better than it ever did last year...and thats without Pouncey who will be back soon.

- Their run game was horrible last year, no doubt...but I really believe a lot of that was because of the horrible O-line...If the O-line is better, which by all indication it definitely should be, I fully expect the run game to be better...Also, Moreno looks MUCH better than Miller ever has.

- I wouldn't call their defense pourous. They have one of the best Defensive line in football, and 2 probowlers in their seconday. I'd say their defense is middle of the pack to slightly better than average.

You posted a bunch of very valid points, and Miami has a lot of questions to answer. But I know for a FACT that Miami's offense line will be better, and that will open up a lot of things that Miami could not do last year. 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 6196
Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by FadeThisXen:

 they're going to underwhelm in games that count.  Against poor teams, they'll look decent.

It's also very interesting that you said that. One definite fact I can tell you about being a Dolphins fan is that for some odd reason they almost always play good against good teams, and bad against bad teams. (last year they were 4-2 against playoff teams, and 1-4 vs bottom of the barrel teams. NYJ, Buff, TB)

If Miami does play well, and look good against bad teams. I really believe that will make them a 10 win team. 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 6196
Posted: #54
Sorry, make that 4-3 vs playoff teams. I blocked out the MNF beating by the Saints. Turnovers absolutely killed them that game
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2012
Posts: 942
Posted: #55
I like the optimism man!

You're right.  If the offensive line can play well, I think they make good on 8+ wins.  When I say the defense is porous - I mean they have serious questions at various positions within their defensive backfield from linebackers to secondary, where someone has to step up.

Regarding this week's game with New England Patriots - I think they are solid to cover against the Patriots as home dogs, and also have a good chance to win straight up.  Good spot for them and a good chance to start the season on a positive.

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 6196
Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by FadeThisXen:

I like the optimism man!

You're right.  If the offensive line can play well, I think they make good on 8+ wins.  When I say the defense is porous - I mean they have serious questions at various positions within their defensive backfield from linebackers to secondary, where someone has to step up.

Regarding this week's game with New England Patriots - I think they are solid to cover against the Patriots as home dogs, and also have a good chance to win straight up.  Good spot for them and a good chance to start the season on a positive.


Yes their secondary does worry my. Reshad Jones being suspendid is a huge deal to me. They are going to have to do something because Jimmy Wilson CANNOT cover Gronk. Anyone with a brain knows that, so I hope Miami's coaches do too.

A lot will depend on the growth of Will Davis and Jamar Taylor, both second year players..I will also take their secondary now (Grimes, Finnegan, Delmas, Jones / Wilson for now) over what they had last year. Grimes, Carroll, Clemons, Jones.


Yes my optimism is very high. I want people to know that its not like I go into every season hyping the Dolphins as the team to beat or anything like that. I truly believe this is the most talented roster they have had in the last 20 years. Take it for what its worth. 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 6196
Posted: #57
Week 1: Patriots at Dolphins.

Its week 1 where anything can happen. As of right now, there are about 3-5 times who are going to either have a good year that surprises the hell out of everyone (KC last year) or an absolutely pathetic year and surprise everyone (Houston, Atlanta)

My thoughts on this game are that it will be a tight game. A division game between two good teams. The Patriots are one of the best teams the Dolphins play all year, so a loss would not surprise me. However this game absolutely should not be more than a one score game. I understand the Patriots have some advantages, but Miami also has some advantages too. The Dolphins receivers are far superior to the Patriots. Other than Julian Edleman and I guess throw in Amendola, the other 3-4 receivers on the Patriots might not even make the Dolphins roster. Let that sink in for a second.

Tough hard fought game that comes down to the wire (remember Miami had 10 games decided by 6 points or less last year, including their game at home vs the Pats) Whoever has the ball last should have a chance to win. Expect a 28-27, 28-24, 27-24 type game. I will be going more in depth on a week to week basis as the season progresses, but my thoughts on how this game will play how have been discussed a lot in this thread.



Miami Dolphins +5: 3.1u to win 3
Miami Dolphins ML (+200): 1u to win 2
Dolphins TT over 20.5: 1.5u to win 1.4
2 unit play on Ryan Tannehill rushing yards (Over, when its released)
I also have them teased to +10.5, 14.5, and 18.5 if you are a teaser guy


Goodluck...Fins up! 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 16192
Posted: #58

Wow, you are very optimistic this year.  My big concern with the Fins is there inability to run the football...  Do you think the changes on the o-line are significant enough to merit them being even a decent running team? 

They were horrible at running the ball last year.

I hope the fins have a big year also just been let down so many years now with them it's almost like i expected them to lose the week 16 game in Buffalo and the week 17 game at home vs the jets

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 6196
Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:

Wow, you are very optimistic this year.  My big concern with the Fins is there inability to run the football...  Do you think the changes on the o-line are significant enough to merit them being even a decent running team? 

They were horrible at running the ball last year.

I hope the fins have a big year also just been let down so many years now with them it's almost like i expected them to lose the week 16 game in Buffalo and the week 17 game at home vs the jets


Yes, I am very optimistic. The most optimistic I have probably ever been because IMO, this i the most talented roster they have had in my 20 years of being a Dolphins fan.

Dan Dierdorf (HOF offensive lineman) obviously knows a lot more about offensive lines than you, me or anyone else on this site I would bet. He went off on a Dolphins game last year about how much harder it is to run block than pass block. He said this was the absolute reason Miami had such a tough time running the ball. A lot can be blamed on Lamar Miller too. He is more of an elusive back, not a guy who is going to break tackles once he gets hit 2 yards past the line of scrimmage.

It only took me one game, hell maybe only 3 carryies from Moreno to show me he will be the #1 back in this offense. Add to the fact he is one of the best blocking backs in the league, he will be getting most touches. I definitely think with a much improved O-line, and a RB who is a powerback who doesn't go down on first contact will really help this offense a lot. The fact that Bill Lazor wants Tannehill to run more will also help the offense. Almost all of Miami's runs this year will be on read option plays, which will allow Tannehill to run more, which in turn should allow for the RB to have better running lanes.

Also, not having the quarterback say "GO" when its a run play and "GO, GO" when its a pass play should also help out a lot. Thanks a lot Mike Sherman
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 2594
Posted: #60
The most talented Miami team of recent is 2003 with Ricky and Junior. This is best put together team since that year. Lamar Miller stinks. He is not elusive at all. Even in the open field last year we saw him run into defenders. 

Sorry had to throw that out there. No real feel for this one. NE is favored by 5 at some places. That's a crazy line. Shift this to NE and they are a 10.5-11pt favorite's which makes no sense. Still picking Miami to cover isn't something I would wager on. Gronk or no Gronk whoever lines up at lb is going to be wearing a target. Doesn't matter if it's Wheeler, who NE repeatedly exposed last year, Jenkins, Misi, or Ellerbee. NE will continually attack them in the passing game with great success. 

New offense and all the Patriots will not be completley caught off guard with the new offense. Hell they just signed Marcus Thigpen and Don Jones just for this weeks prep. 
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 26913
Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by JerryWrasse:

The most talented Miami team of recent is 2003 with Ricky and Junior. This is best put together team since that year. Lamar Miller stinks. He is not elusive at all. Even in the open field last year we saw him run into defenders. 

Sorry had to throw that out there. No real feel for this one. NE is favored by 5 at some places. That's a crazy line. Shift this to NE and they are a 10.5-11pt favorite's which makes no sense. Still picking Miami to cover isn't something I would wager on. Gronk or no Gronk whoever lines up at lb is going to be wearing a target. Doesn't matter if it's Wheeler, who NE repeatedly exposed last year, Jenkins, Misi, or Ellerbee. NE will continually attack them in the passing game with great success. 

New offense and all the Patriots will not be completley caught off guard with the new offense. Hell they just signed Marcus Thigpen and Don Jones just for this weeks prep. 


No chance NE is -11 against the phins even at home. more like -8/-9 but you'll never know until the season unfolds what they will be in December.  I know it is just preseason but I was impressed with Miami's D in all 4 games more than most teams in the league. I highly doubt they will finish the season on the stat lines as an average defense. Looking to go 3-0 in week 1 with Miami +5 after loading up on SEA -6 and SEA at half. The main thing concerning me is NE should be much stronger on defense than last year (as I'm sure you know) with the new pickups. I just hope Dolphins can sustain drives and not shoot themselves in the foo with the O-line improvementst. GL to us in week 1
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2014
Posts: 18
Posted: #62
It's the same story every year with Miami in terms of preseason confidence. There are definitely reasons for it, but they're in "I'll believe it when I see it" mode. I think Tannehill is a good quarterback, but for the Dolphins to make the playoffs, he'll have to play great. He might have that in him. The defensive line will be good as always. The rest of the team is fine but not great. Bill Lazor is a bit of a wild card with the Chip Kelly pedigree in a good way.

The Jets and Dolphins will battle for 2nd in that division behind New England, and they will compete for wild card berths pretty late into the season probably. Buffalo will be Buffalo.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 2594
Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by VegasVandal:



No chance NE is -11 against the phins even at home. more like -8/-9 but you'll never know until the season unfolds what they will be in December.

Miami is a 5 pt dog at home. Shift it to a neutral locstion. And its -8. Shift it another 3 for home field and you have Never -11. Might not be the real line but that's basically what this line is saying.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 16192
Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:


Yes, I am very optimistic. The most optimistic I have probably ever been because IMO, this i the most talented roster they have had in my 20 years of being a Dolphins fan.

Dan Dierdorf (HOF offensive lineman) obviously knows a lot more about offensive lines than you, me or anyone else on this site I would bet. He went off on a Dolphins game last year about how much harder it is to run block than pass block. He said this was the absolute reason Miami had such a tough time running the ball. A lot can be blamed on Lamar Miller too. He is more of an elusive back, not a guy who is going to break tackles once he gets hit 2 yards past the line of scrimmage.

It only took me one game, hell maybe only 3 carryies from Moreno to show me he will be the #1 back in this offense. Add to the fact he is one of the best blocking backs in the league, he will be getting most touches. I definitely think with a much improved O-line, and a RB who is a powerback who doesn't go down on first contact will really help this offense a lot. The fact that Bill Lazor wants Tannehill to run more will also help the offense. Almost all of Miami's runs this year will be on read option plays, which will allow Tannehill to run more, which in turn should allow for the RB to have better running lanes.

Also, not having the quarterback say "GO" when its a run play and "GO, GO" when its a pass play should also help out a lot. Thanks a lot Mike Sherman

i saw the 2002 and 2003 teams were the most talented in the last 20 years and the 1994 team...

hope ur right tho man, it's unreal what a joke organization this team has turned into the last 10+ years or so.

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 6196
Posted: #65
I agree the 2003 team was hella talented. I believe that was the team that went 10-6 and missed the playoffs, after blowing that game week 17 at New England.

Anyway, as a whole I think this team is more talented. This team does not have a guy as good as Ricky Williams was, but from man 1 to man 53 this team is more talented. Obviously that is an opinion and can easily be debated, but thats how I feel.

Especially at the QB position. Fiedler was the man and solid at not losing games, but he had nowhere near the potential Tannehill has. If he lives up to that hype, sky is the limit.

It might not click right away, remember the Eagles struggled early on and were like 3-4 when they started to click with this new type of offense. I expect to see some flashes early, but it will be hard to click on all cylanders right away
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 6196
Posted: #66
Miami did not play well today. They turned it over 3 times, and kicked 4 FG that were less than 35 yards. Knowshon Moreno and the Dline played out of their minds in the 2nd half. Alot of thoughts on this game but I need to think over.

The 2014 Miami Dolphins might just be for real. 

Miami Dolphins +5: 3.1u to win 3 
Miami Dolphins ML (+200): 1u to win 2 
Dolphins TT over 20.5: 1.5u to win 1.4 
2 unit play on Ryan Tannehill rushing yards: over 
I also have them teased to +10.5, 14.5, and 18.5 if you are a teaser guy

+4.4 units, and a Fins win. I'm happy 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 16192
Posted: #67
Best the fish offense has looked since I been following them 1994 (six years old). Moreno ran hard, they run out of shotgun every down but it worked. Oline looked DOMINANT. CAMERON WAKE is a beast let's win the fuckking divison don't waste a 3-0 start like last year!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2008
Posts: 3549
Posted: #68
Dolphins won the game by winning the trenches. 

Nothing went well for the Pats in the 2nd half. Whenever they put pressure on Tannehill, they ended up getting a roughing the passer penalty. 
Brady missing a wide open Edleman sealed the game. 

Only positive that I had Wake in FF. 

Congrats earth. 

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2012
Posts: 4669
Posted: #69
4-6 posters always add so much to this forum.

Great write up.

Wake gave the Pats fits today.

No one mentioned it being a sauna here at 1pm.......lol

Miami was ready for them!!

Great stats to chew on too!!

Thanks Earth.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 6196
Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by choppedwood:

4-6 posters always add so much to this forum.

Great write up.

Wake gave the Pats fits today.

No one mentioned it being a sauna here at 1pm.......lol

Miami was ready for them!!

Great stats to chew on too!!

Thanks Earth.


I did see a stat that said Miami was 18-2 in their last 20 September home games that have a 1 oclock kick. I couldn't verify that stat so I don't know if its true or not, but it just might be.

Tannehill was sacked only 1 time today, but he looked a tad shaky on some pass plays, and that INT he threw was awful. That was one of the best secondaries he will see all year though.

Surprised Clay was not used more, and surprised Tannehill had zero designed runs called for him. I guess they ran it so effectively today they didn't need him too. If Moreno runs like that all year, the sky is the absolute limit and they can compete/beat any team in the NFL. 

1 week means nothing though. They were 3-0 last year, I just think this team is much more mentally prepared this season. 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2005
Posts: 7443
Posted: #71
Great win for the Fins. 

My book opened with Buffalo -1 next week and without thinking and going completely off my gut instincts, I took Miami +1. I know division game and going on her road....but I can't imagine Miami losing to the horrible Bills. Can this this line being Miami -3 by kickoff. 

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 6196
Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

Great win for the Fins. 

My book opened with Buffalo -1 next week and without thinking and going completely off my gut instincts, I took Miami +1. I know division game and going on her road....but I can't imagine Miami losing to the horrible Bills. Can this this line being Miami -3 by kickoff. 


I think because Miami struggled against the Bills twice last year, and played awful in Buffalo the line will not reach Miami -3. Especially since the Bills won today. I could see it going to Miami -1 by kickoff but any further than that and I'd be surprised.

From a talent standpoint, Miami should win this game next week but they always do struggle in Buffalo. If they can run the ball like they did today, they will take care of business next week. Will be a hard fought game though. 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 6196
Posted: #73
Season long props

Miami Dolphins over 7.5 wins (-105, bovada) 12.6u to win 12
Miami Dolphins over 8 wins (+145, 5dimes) 3.4u to win 5

Miami Dolphins to make playoffs (+300, 5dimes) 5u to win 15
Miami Dolphins to win AFC East (+650, bovada) 1.5u to win 9.7

Miami Dolphins to win Superbowl ( 66/1, bovada) 1.5u to win 99
Miami Dolphins to win AFC ( 28/1, Bovada) 1.7u to win 48

Ryan Tannehill most passing yards ( 100/1, Bovada) 1u to win 100
Ryan Tannehill MVP ( 250/1, 5dimes) 0.5u to win 125
Mike Wallace most receiving yards (50/1, 5dimes) 1u to win 50

Ryan Tannehill over 23.5 passing TDs (-115) 20u to win 17.3
Ryan Tannehill over 3900 passing yards (-115) 10u to win 8.7

Charles Clay over 625 receiving yards (-115) 10u to win 8.7
Charles Clay over 5 TDs (-115) 10u to win 8.7

Mike Wallace over 950 receiving yards (-115) 7u to win 6

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 6196
Posted: #74
Week 2: Miami At Buffalo.


I am treading kind of lightly this week. I'm not even really sure why. Most of it is because Miami went 2-4 in the division last year, lost twice to buffalo and had their worst game of the year in Buffalo week 16. The main reason the game week 16 was so ugly was because of how dominate the Bills D-line was against Miami's horrible O-line. Also, it was extremely windy which made throwing the ball very difficult.

I do think Miami will win this game, and I can't imagine why anyone would be on Buffalo in this game. Miami is superior to the Bills at almost every single position. Literally. Miami scored 33 points last week, and it could have been a lot more. They turned the ball over 3 times, and kicked 4 FGs under 35 yards..A few more bounces and Miami could have dropped a 45 spot on one of the best defenses they play all year. Tannehill played decent, and had a few drops that hurt him (looking at you Dion Sims.) Clay was also taken out of the game and I can't see that happening two weeks in a row.

This is one of those games where my feelings on how it can/will play out is a very wide range. I could see it end up as a real tight game, or Miami by 10+. It really all depends on Miami turning the ball over. If they protect the ball, they should win this game. There is just that slight doubt creeping in just because its Buffalo. Win or lose this game, I will be pounding Miami the next two weeks vs KC and Oak. I am treading lightly here though.

Dolphins win 30-20 in a tight one that is closer than the score indicates.


Miami Dolphins pk (-115) 2.6u to win 2.4


Side note. Miami beat the Patriots without 3 starters (Pouncey, Jordan and Reshad Jones) and played the entire second half without 3 of their starting linebackers. Can you believe pro football talk rated this team #30 to start the season. That guy needs to be fired. Goodluck, go Fins 
 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 6196
Posted: #75
Adding.

Miami Dolphins -3.5: 1u to win 1.9

Miami Dolphins TT over 21: 1.5u to win 1.4


All Forums | NFL Betting Forum
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gambling
Betting Sites
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
21+
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Help Privacy Terms of Service Cookies Sitemap Forum
Covers is verified safe by:
Evalon Logo Logo GPWA Logo GDPR logo Logo GeoTrust logo Logo PCI DSS logo Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.