*** Pound the Lions this Week and Call it a Day! POTY ***

I don't care if you're up 100K, in no way is this a POY. I'm in a confidence pool (3/60 overall) and will have the Falcons as my 8-10.

Thats just the thing, in my personal opinion, the Falcons will come in flat. Last week was a statement game for the Falcons, heard how overrated they were all year and completely shutout the defending superbowl champs. They now have 5 days to hear about how good they are, no way in hell they come out with the same fire and passion as last week. Go ahead and place your ticket on the Falcons just because they are playing better ball and the better team

Look more into the stat than just the number. The Lions turn the ball over as much as any team in the league. Normally this would scare me but not this week. The Falcons pass rush the past month has been absolute bottom of the league.

5 Sacks in the last 4 games for the Falcons. Your giving me Stafford with a clean pocket getting +4 at home off an embarassing loss against a FLAT Falcons team? I like my chances

Your POTY is going on one of the dumbest/undisciplined teams in the league?  Only the Eagles may be dumber, but Detroit is a close second. 

Is it really your opinion when you "promise." Can I bet 1K and be refunded if I lose based on your promise?

Bruschi's Bold Prediction: Calvin under 100 YDS and Stafford 4 INTs. Yes it's a "Bold Prediction," but that wouldn't make me feel comfortable about calling this a "POY"

Love the play LC I think this is going to be a huge week for the books.

All you giving LC garbage are jackazzes.  He is stating his opinion and facts on why the Lions are a large play for him.  No1 needs to tail his picks, its his opinion.  

OK, I AM A HOMER... But not with my money....  I think the Falcons roll Saturday night.....  They are taking this game very seriously, they want to wrap up home field at Lions so they can rest some players next week.  I have been very good on my reads on the mood of this team....  The interviews on sports radio are very similar to ones the week before they gave Brees and Saints one of the worst days of their lives.... 

And another observation, Detroits coaching has been terrible, they can't stop anybody, no lead is safe in the fourth quarter... Stafford is a turnover machine... He keeps forcing the ball to Johnson in coverage... he's good for 3 picks minimum...They are just not a very good football team.

  Come on now Theone, you of all people should understand that not only are these discussions good for the individuals posting, but for everyone reading them, as an awful lot of stats end up coming out in these discussions.  I can see where you're coming from if a poster says "if I tail and lose, will you guarantee me my money back?"  Other than comments like that, I thought that's what these threads were for.  I for one see the game through a different pair of glasses.  Does that mean I'll win my bet?  Obviously not, there's never any guarantees, but at least I'll look at all the angles before I lay down my hard earned cash. Example; once I read that the Falcons only had 5 sacks in the last 4 games I looked, and low and behold, I found out that they also have only given up 5 sacks in the last 4 games.  Probably something I would have never looked at unless LC brought that stat up.

          Anyway, hope you have a profitable week and a Merry Christmas and prosperous New Year.

Thanks mate. People think i'm anti ATL in here coming up with reasons why ATL is the far superior team but I had $750 on them last week against the Giants. I know this team is good, but this is a terrible spot for them.

Capper,

I won big on The BYU/SDSU Under 46 and am rolling on the LIONS! I cannot believe that so many people are on the Falcoons this Saturday. Is this a square world or what? I juiced it to -122 and +4.5

 

Love the Lions! ATL is the biggest square play of the week!

Theone you are being a moron. there is no abuse here just healthy debate. I really don't buy the being flat argument this close to the playoffs. I mean the Giants and Packers won something like 6 or 7 games in a row both seasons. They never went flat after a big win. 

  So wasn't Cinn last Thursday night, and Seattle and Washington on Sunday.  How did the sharps make out with Philly, Clev. and Buff? To think that a play wins or loses because it's sharp or square is absurd.  BOL hope all your wagers are winners.

Since when is blowing out the Cardinals any type of statement? The Cardinals are one of the worst teams in the league, that win meant nothing for the Seahawks.

The Giants on the other hand, are the defending superbowl champions. A team that humiliated the Falcons in the playoffs 24-2. That was a huge redemption win for the Falcons. Tons of emotions were let out after the victory. Asking them to muster up the same amount of energy and emotion for a game just 5 days later, hah good luck.

   Look LC,  I respect you as a capper and your record speaks for itself. You keep saying the same thing over and over though.  The last time I looked, the final score of that game was 34-0 Atl. What makes you think they'll need the same amount of energy and emotion to beat a team far inferior to the Giants, and that's also long gone from the play offs.  I don't want to get into a pissing match, but it looks to me that you've taken your stand and are now throwing darts to justify it. Like any wager where people are on opposite sides, you'll obviously see opposite opinions. I understand your position on the "spot/situation" in this game, I just don't think it's applicable. I also hate to see anyone lose a wager, especially myself though, so maybe I'm doing a little of the same and trying to justify my position. Hopefully you haven't taken anything I stated, as me being adversarial towards you.

  Anyway, like I said to Theone, Merry Christmas and hope there's a prosperous New Year ahead for you.  Nothing changes here though, one of us wins, and one of us loses.  I just hate to see someone have so much invested in a bad, bad, football team, that's pretty much packed it in.

Money refunded, really???
Some of you guys here amaze me!

You should NEVER play someone elses pick unless YOU capped the game YOURSELF and agree.

There are truly some lazy people in here that should not be gambling.

Try buying some scratch off tickets if you are just blindly wanting to tail someone in hopes of cashing in, it takes the same amount of time and effort.

You can not rely on anyone in here to make you money, it is YOUR money, either tail or pass but of his play doesn't hit it is YOUR FAULT and NOT LC's or any other capper on here.

I actually like LC's thought process for liking the Lions here and if it were almost any other team I would be on board with this pick.

I just can't back this one though. The Lions secondary is injury plagued and bad. They are signing guys that were long ago cut by other teams. Fairly goes on IR this week, further weakening the pass rush.

The Lions on offense are not playing well, aside from Calvin. Stafford has been pretty bad for most of the season.

The motivation for each team couldn't be any further apart.

If there was a game that I would follow your logic on it would be the Giants, coming off that embarrassing loss with their playoff lives at stake in a must win. Especially against a slumping, injury plagued defense that has already backed into a playoff spot.

That would be my POY if I was backing a road fave.

BOL to you on this game though.

Dude, the fact that your appalled that LC could take the Lions says everything.

Situational betting in the NFL is the only way (combined with good money management) to have long term success betting the NFL. This is a very good situation, and sure the Lions may have quit, but how do any of us get a strong sense of that. They played awful last week but that was a terrible situation for the Lions. Which dovetails back to situational betting. You think this line is short because the linesmakers are in the xmas spirit?

It's the Lions or a pass.

g/l

         tboon,   seeing that I don't know you from Adam, I unlike you, won't take the liberty of calling you dude.  That's the first assumption I notice in your post.  Another assumption I noticed was the above highlighted comment.  I'm 62 years old, have been doing this since college, and I'm fully aware of the concept of situational betting. There are entire books on the subject, but to keep it brief for obvious reasons, one persons interpretation of a "good spot' vs a "bad spot," doesn't always indicate that one certain  play defines a good situation. Follow me so far?  Numerous other factors,let's just say way too many to discuss in another persons thread, come into play. The fact you stated the Lions may have possibly packed it in is probably the biggest one IMO. Another is that I don't think the current line is all that short as it indicates that if the game was to be played in Atlanta it would be somewhere over 10 but under 2 TD's.  Seems like a fair line to me.  I for one think the situation favors the Falcons, with the #1 seed at stake in this game. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree, and wait for the game to play out. Sometimes though that doesn't even indicate that a play was a good situational play, just that one team either played better than the other or got all the right bounces.  BOL and I hope all your wagers are winners.

The best bets are the toughest ones to make!