*** Pound the Lions this Week and Call it a Day! POTY ***

Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions

Was big on the Falcons last week but this is a perfect spot to fade them here. Falcons shutting out the superbowl champs then having to travel to face a team that just got embarrassed by one of the worst teams in the league.

This has been a disappointing season for the Lions to say the least but last week definitely hurt there ego's. Lions rebound here and give the Falcons there third loss of the year.

- Teams beating the Super Bowl champs are 18-30 ATS (37%) the following week

- Teams with 11 wins or more as road favorites are 9-29 ATS (23%) past 9 years.

-  Teams who lose by 30 points or more ATS and home dogs of 3 or more are 12-1 ATS (92%) past 10 years.


Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

Love the Bills here as well for my 2nd and final play of the week. Dolphins defense shutting down the Jaguars last week while the Bills got creamed at home.

- Teams who lose by 30+ points and are dogs between 3 and 6 are 17-3 ATS (85%) past 6 years

- Teams who allow 7 or less points last week at home with a home Sunday game this week are 4-18 ATS (18%) past 4 years

- Divisional favorites who are divisional dogs next week are 13-41 ATS (24%) past 5 years


Lions +4 (-118)           20 units
Bills +4 (-110)              7 units

Lions +11 / Bills +11       5 units

2 of my favorite plays of the week as well, will be on the ML for both

Been waiting for your plays this week and couldn't be happier with your play on Detroit! 

Detroit ML a good play ?

BOL, like the picks as well

ALREADY ON THEM LEAGUE !!!

HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THE AINTS ???

AND HOW ABOUT THE DD HOME DOG JAX JAGUARS???

THOUGHTS ???

 Like it LC!

Would love to hear your thoughts/ lean on SF @ SEA..

Thanks and GL!!!    

Zephyr_10 + Magic_Steam - Biggest game of the year for both teams and on primetime. Have to like the under.

alecboyh - Cowboys usually choke in must win situations + they just won an emotional game in overtime last week. However, Saints just shut there opponent out so there in a tricky spot themselves. I think the Cowboys are still the overall better team here so I'd have to lean towards them. Saints are just an average team on the road.

- Teams who lose by 30 points or more ATS and home dogs of 3 or more are 12-1 ATS (92%) past 10 years.

The Lions only lost by 28 pts... so that's out the window....

- Divisional favorites who are divisional dogs next week are 13-41 ATS (24%) past 5 years

Buffalo was NOT a divisional favorite last week. They weren't even a favorite. They played the NFC and were a dog.

Buffalo wants a high draft pick. They don't want to win this game.

 

 

Correction - I guess you could count the Lions a loser by more than 30 ATS, since they were favored by 6...

Who pulls out a trend like that, counting a spread number + the points a team loses by? Where did you find that trend...?

Bills lost because they are terrible.  The line is injured, their coach is making horrible decisions, and the players gave up.  Do not bet the Bills you will regret it.

 

 

 

Just dont do that to yourself. 

Atlanta will be my POTY, I guess one of us will win.

InVegas - I never said buffalo was a divisional favorite last week. Reread the trend, it's for Miami

LC - Maybe I'm confused. Miami did not play a division team last week. They played a conference team. And... This week they are not a dog - they are a favorite.

???

Either way - I appreciate your post, as always - can't back the Bills in any circumstance at this point in the season.

Best.

Thanks for the explanation. Got it. But I think that trend is a stretch to use. Nonetheless, Buffalo's GM (Buddy Nix) has been talking about moving up in the draft for the last 2 weeks...

They do not "want" to win (even if they could)... I wouldn't be surprised if they played somebody else at QB on Sunday.

GL on your plays this weekend LC! 

GL on your plays this weekend LC! 

BOL LC