Posted:
#101
Detroit will find a way to blow this game. Although they might cover the spread. Though call
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*** Pound the Lions this Week and Call it a Day! POTY ***
Posted:
#103
I agree with most everything the skeptics are saying here... it's so hard to picture the Falcons losing, or winning by a handful, against the woeful Lions.
On the other hand, as a Packer fan, I've seen just how talented this team is -- how the Lions, through bone-headed penalties and muffed review flag tosses, manage to then give away games (wins and losses, not ATSs) often by thin margins.
Let's look at the Lions at home this season:
The last time the Lions lost by more than 4 points at home was back in September (by 7.)
Their last four home games, all against playoff teams, were a win, a 4 point loss, a 3 point loss to Houston, and a 2 point loss to Indy.
Now, Atlanta is a better team than most of those opponents, but I do think our host here has a point that they have somewhat of a natural lull after slaying the dragon of last year's 24-2 humiliation.
Are they a disciplined team? A team with a lot to play for? Certainly.... But not as much as against the Giants. And with a short week to prepare, and a road trip, I see his line of argument -- and the relevance of his statistical argument -- as plausible and pertinent.
On the other hand, as a Packer fan, I've seen just how talented this team is -- how the Lions, through bone-headed penalties and muffed review flag tosses, manage to then give away games (wins and losses, not ATSs) often by thin margins.
Let's look at the Lions at home this season:
| Date | vs. | Score | Line | O/U |
| STL | W 27-23 | L -9 | O 46 | |
| MIN | L 13-20 | L -3.5 | U 48 | |
| SEA | W 28-24 | W -2.5 | O 42.5 | |
| GB | L 20-24 | L 3 | U 53.5 | |
| HOU | L 31-34 x | W 3.5 | O 48.5 | |
| IND | L 33-35 | L -7 | O 51 |
The last time the Lions lost by more than 4 points at home was back in September (by 7.)
Their last four home games, all against playoff teams, were a win, a 4 point loss, a 3 point loss to Houston, and a 2 point loss to Indy.
Now, Atlanta is a better team than most of those opponents, but I do think our host here has a point that they have somewhat of a natural lull after slaying the dragon of last year's 24-2 humiliation.
Are they a disciplined team? A team with a lot to play for? Certainly.... But not as much as against the Giants. And with a short week to prepare, and a road trip, I see his line of argument -- and the relevance of his statistical argument -- as plausible and pertinent.
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enjoy reading your post hope you have a good paying job,just can't see where you'll get anywhere betting lions an bills,unless you work for las vegas!gl
Posted:
#107
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:
It's funny how many people say this is a terrible bet. Throw out the records and these two teams are almost identical. Both have strong pass offenses, no run game, and a below average defense. Falcons commit less penalty's and turnovers but that's where the +4 at home comes in.
Take a look at the Lions in the last month.
1) Lost to the Packers by 4 and by 7, both games they had a comfortable lead.
2) Lost to the Texans in overtime by 3, had a comfortable lead
3) Lost to the Colts by 2, had a comfortable lead.
Falcons when playing below average teams,
1) needed a miracle to comeback and beat the panthers
2) barely held on to beating the raiders in a dome
3) got crushed by the panthers
4) barely survived the Cardinals
Yeah, such a terrible bet
It's funny how many people say this is a terrible bet. Throw out the records and these two teams are almost identical. Both have strong pass offenses, no run game, and a below average defense. Falcons commit less penalty's and turnovers but that's where the +4 at home comes in.
Take a look at the Lions in the last month.
1) Lost to the Packers by 4 and by 7, both games they had a comfortable lead.
2) Lost to the Texans in overtime by 3, had a comfortable lead
3) Lost to the Colts by 2, had a comfortable lead.
Falcons when playing below average teams,
1) needed a miracle to comeback and beat the panthers
2) barely held on to beating the raiders in a dome
3) got crushed by the panthers
4) barely survived the Cardinals
Yeah, such a terrible bet
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Posted:
#109
Quote Originally Posted by Mack05:
Going to play the Falcons ML and parlay it with something else. I think Falcons ML is the best play on this match. Atlanta wins close games, Lions lose them..
Going to play the Falcons ML and parlay it with something else. I think Falcons ML is the best play on this match. Atlanta wins close games, Lions lose them..
not a bad alternative way to go. i'm liking League Capper's argument on the spread too though.
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Posted:
#110
Gfoss I decided not to play. While I didn't agree with LC having this as a POY he is a very solid capper. Also can't help but think Falcons have two shots at homefield, with their last game at home to the Bucs. Maybe LC has a point. I think this is a tough week to cap. Next week too. I might play the Packers in running if I can get below -10. but my next big play is week 1 of the playoffs whereby there is nearly always one standout game
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Posted:
#111
LC this is one of the better threads I've seen in some time on this site. Actually just a little bashing and a lot of info for everyone to consider. Tail or not it's still up to the person betting to cap and make his own decision. I'll just add a little more info as far as trends and history to go with what has already been posted. I respect your play on the Lions but can't back em in this spot with nothing to play for while the Dirty Birds are looking for home field and are the much better team. My plays will be on the Falcons ML and ats.
Atlanta is 17-1 vs a team with a losing record on ML.
Atl. 26-7 with 6 or less days rest last 3 seasons.
Lions are 0-10 ats all games vs. team with winning record 2'nd half of the season last 2 seasons. Just a few more to consider and I'll just be making mid size plays including the under in a tease and parlay. Either way BOL and happy holidays to all.
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Posted:
#114
BOL LCap like those plays! Oh look its MR KNOW IT ALL! INVEGAS bashing another thread!! Hey Invegas do you actually have a play here ?? Are you saying Miami is the play?? What are you saying?? Or are you just a smart "A" that likes bashing other peoples thread!! I think you really have some insecurity issues coming on this site and posting all your negative BS! Must make you feel like a real BIG SHOT!! Offer some plays or get the Hell of this site!! By the way, LCap has some good stuff and i have won some $$$ with him as well!!
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Posted:
#115
BOL LCap like those plays! Oh look its MR KNOW IT ALL! INVEGAS bashing another thread!! Hey Invegas do you actually have a play here ?? Are you saying Miami is the play?? What are you saying?? Or are you just a smart "A" that likes bashing other peoples thread!! I think you really have some insecurity issues coming on this site and posting all your negative BS! Must make you feel like a real BIG SHOT!! Offer some plays or get the Hell of this site!! By the way, LCap has some good stuff and i have won some $$$ with him as well!!
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Posted:
#116
Hey LCapper i've been watching your plays since last summer when you were on the same big preseason play as me: falcons @ steelers,,we got screwed on that. you really are consistant man. anyway, what kind of score do you see here? i see 2 damn good O lines and 2 very mediocre run games on top of 2 very vulnerable secondaries. an over of 50 really doesnt scare me. what do you think?
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Posted:
#118
Quote Originally Posted by sammyRN:
Hey LCapper i've been watching your plays since last summer when you were on the same big preseason play as me: falcons @ steelers,,we got screwed on that. you really are consistant man. anyway, what kind of score do you see here? i see 2 damn good O lines and 2 very mediocre run games on top of 2 very vulnerable secondaries. an over of 50 really doesnt scare me. what do you think?
Hey LCapper i've been watching your plays since last summer when you were on the same big preseason play as me: falcons @ steelers,,we got screwed on that. you really are consistant man. anyway, what kind of score do you see here? i see 2 damn good O lines and 2 very mediocre run games on top of 2 very vulnerable secondaries. an over of 50 really doesnt scare me. what do you think?
I woulda agreed with you but this is a short week for both teams which is something you have to keep in mind when playing an over
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Posted:
#125
Quote Originally Posted by 222bad:
Come on now Theone,
you of all people should understand that not only are these discussions good for the individuals posting, but for everyone reading them, as an awful lot of stats end up coming out in these discussions. I can see where you're coming from if a poster says "if I tail and lose, will you guarantee me my money back?" Other than comments like that, I thought that's what these threads were for. I for one see the game through a different pair of glasses. Does that mean I'll win my bet? Obviously not, there's never any guarantees, but at least I'll look at all the angles before I lay down my hard earned cash. Example; once I read that the Falcons only had 5 sacks in the last 4 games I looked, and low and behold, I found out that they also have only given up 5 sacks in the last 4 games. Probably something I would have never looked at unless LC brought that stat up.
Anyway, hope you have a profitable week and a Merry Christmas and prosperous New Year.
Come on now Theone,
you of all people should understand that not only are these discussions good for the individuals posting, but for everyone reading them, as an awful lot of stats end up coming out in these discussions. I can see where you're coming from if a poster says "if I tail and lose, will you guarantee me my money back?" Other than comments like that, I thought that's what these threads were for. I for one see the game through a different pair of glasses. Does that mean I'll win my bet? Obviously not, there's never any guarantees, but at least I'll look at all the angles before I lay down my hard earned cash. Example; once I read that the Falcons only had 5 sacks in the last 4 games I looked, and low and behold, I found out that they also have only given up 5 sacks in the last 4 games. Probably something I would have never looked at unless LC brought that stat up. Anyway, hope you have a profitable week and a Merry Christmas and prosperous New Year.
222 my comments werent directed at you. Merry Christmas amigo.
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