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*** Pound the Lions this Week and Call it a Day! POTY ***

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Posted: #26

Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions

Was big on the Falcons last week but this is a perfect spot to fade them here. Falcons shutting out the superbowl champs then having to travel to face a team that just got embarrassed by one of the worst teams in the league.

This has been a disappointing season for the Lions to say the least but last week definitely hurt there ego's. Lions rebound here and give the Falcons there third loss of the year.

- Teams beating the Super Bowl champs are 18-30 ATS (37%) the following week

- Teams with 11 wins or more as road favorites are 9-29 ATS (23%) past 9 years.

-  Teams who lose by 30 points or more ATS and home dogs of 3 or more are 12-1 ATS (92%) past 10 years.


Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

Love the Bills here as well for my 2nd and final play of the week. Dolphins defense shutting down the Jaguars last week while the Bills got creamed at home.

- Teams who lose by 30+ points and are dogs between 3 and 6 are 17-3 ATS (85%) past 6 years

- Teams who allow 7 or less points last week at home with a home Sunday game this week are 4-18 ATS (18%) past 4 years

- Divisional favorites who are divisional dogs next week are 13-41 ATS (24%) past 5 years


Lions +4 (-118)           20 units
Bills +4 (-110)              7 units

those stats are nice but what about all the injuries that have hit the lions no fairley .corey william,titus young ,jacob lacey,broyles burleson and if pettigrew and delmas dont play thats going to really hurt them.with no pettigrew their best receiver behind CJ is tony scheffler and after that we got scrubs Durham,Logan,Robiskie,Tohmas. Stafford and CJ are great players but i just cant see them carrying the lions for four quarters

 
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Posted: #27
Good luck LC


Like both 

 
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Posted: #28

My overvalued/undervalued  metrics has a fade on both Atlanta and Miami this week and is 28-13 ATS this season.

Should go at least 1-1 ATS with a good possibility of 2-0 ATS...................................

 
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Posted: #29
20 units on a team that doesn't care...i dunno LC, i dunno.
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by InVegas:

Thanks for the explanation. Got it. But I think that trend is a stretch to use. Nonetheless, Buffalo's GM (Buddy Nix) has been talking about moving up in the draft for the last 2 weeks...

They do not "want" to win (even if they could)... I wouldn't be surprised if they played somebody else at QB on Sunday.



The trend has nothing to do with Buffalo. It is a fade against Miami and one I have used all year. It shows that teams look ahead to a tougher divisional battle the following week. In other words, Miami coaches will be gameplanning for New England already this week before the game with Buffalo and that Miami players will be looking ahead looking forward to playing and revenging there earlier loss to the powerhouse Patriots.
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by jaybrown2088:

those stats are nice but what about all the injuries that have hit the lions no fairley .corey william,titus young ,jacob lacey,broyles burleson and if pettigrew and delmas dont play thats going to really hurt them.with no pettigrew their best receiver behind CJ is tony scheffler and after that we got scrubs Durham,Logan,Robiskie,Tohmas. Stafford and CJ are great players but i just cant see them carrying the lions for four quarters



Why do people continue to talk about injuries when capping? Oddsmakers already take into account every injury when making the spread, there is no use to look any further into injuries. If those injuries weren't prevalent the spread wouldn't be what it is. Therefore it is useless to cap injuries, oddsmakers have already done it for me
 
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Posted: #32
I like the lions pick, not sure about the bills. I got buried taking the bills last week...no way I'm putting money on them again.

bol this week. 
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by jaybrown2088:

those stats are nice but what about all the injuries that have hit the lions no fairley .corey william,titus young ,jacob lacey,broyles burleson and if pettigrew and delmas dont play thats going to really hurt them.with no pettigrew their best receiver behind CJ is tony scheffler and after that we got scrubs Durham,Logan,Robiskie,Tohmas. Stafford and CJ are great players but i just cant see them carrying the lions for four quarters


I agree with this. The Lions are literally signing guys off the street to play in the secondary and they lost Fairly this week as well. I'm not seeing this ending well for the Lions against an Atlanta team that still has something to play for. The demeanor of this Lions team has "quit" written all over it. As a Lions fan, I hope I am wrong but I have followed this team long enough to have little faith in them at this point. 

I do like the over however. I think Atlanta can light up the scoreboard on this team and that will force the Lions, an already pass happy team, to keep airing it out. 

Falcons and the over for me. BOL to everyone. 
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions

Was big on the Falcons last week but this is a perfect spot to fade them here. Falcons shutting out the superbowl champs then having to travel to face a team that just got embarrassed by one of the worst teams in the league.

This has been a disappointing season for the Lions to say the least but last week definitely hurt there ego's. Lions rebound here and give the Falcons there third loss of the year.

- Teams beating the Super Bowl champs are 18-30 ATS (37%) the following week

- Teams with 11 wins or more as road favorites are 9-29 ATS (23%) past 9 years.

-  Teams who lose by 30 points or more ATS and home dogs of 3 or more are 12-1 ATS (92%) past 10 years.


Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

Love the Bills here as well for my 2nd and final play of the week. Dolphins defense shutting down the Jaguars last week while the Bills got creamed at home.

- Teams who lose by 30+ points and are dogs between 3 and 6 are 17-3 ATS (85%) past 6 years

- Teams who allow 7 or less points last week at home with a home Sunday game this week are 4-18 ATS (18%) past 4 years

- Divisional favorites who are divisional dogs next week are 13-41 ATS (24%) past 5 years


Lions +4 (-118)           20 units
Bills +4 (-110)              7 units

teams that allowed 7 pts or less and plays home again are 4-19 including last wk's cleveland's lost. 
teama who lose by 30+ pts and are dogs between 3-6 are 13-4 since 07 with 1-1 this year including last wk's arizona.  regardless,yes pound the lions and buffalo. 
 
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Posted: #35

What's the angle here my the lions are going to win? Because they shot there load on the giants, are you friggin kidding me, they dominated the champs, so there going to come back the next weak against a lions team decimated with injuries and has nothing to play for where you have Atlanta on a national.televised game and just say here Detroit you can have the win. Atlanta will feed off that dominating display of football against the giants and take care of business. Anyway GL

 
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Posted: #36
Some great stats, thanks LC.  Pertinent and persuasive.
 
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Posted: #37
Trends seem to loose when I follow. If this is the best pick of the week. I will have to fade. ATL by 5+ in a nail biter. This will be a game that makes you ask yourself why you sportsbet on games that could go either way.
 
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Posted: #38
I just dunno how you can put 20 units on the lions who always find a way to make awful mistakes...and are pretty much tanking
 
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Posted: #39
I respect you leaguecapper but this is a wreckless bet to me. You are basically making a 4 and 10 team who always seem to find ways to lose your poy of the year against a 12-2 team that has in the main found ways to win based on 'trends'. The whole concept of trend betting is ridiculous to me. 

Falcons have a non divisional game in a dome against a injury ravaged team in a dome for a chance of home field and u think u should fade them based on some trends. I think u are about to learn a harsh lesson as this is a bad play..
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Why do people continue to talk about injuries when capping? Oddsmakers already take into account every injury when making the spread, there is no use to look any further into injuries. If those injuries weren't prevalent the spread wouldn't be what it is. Therefore it is useless to cap injuries, oddsmakers have already done it for me


Why do you consider trends when capping? You are essentially factoring in past games, with completely different teams, in completely different situations in respect to their season.

The only trend you should be looking to dig up is how often teams cover the spread while clinching the conference.
 
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Posted: #41

Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Why do people continue to talk about injuries when capping? Oddsmakers already take into account every injury when making the spread, there is no use to look any further into injuries. If those injuries weren't prevalent the spread wouldn't be what it is. Therefore it is useless to cap injuries, oddsmakers have already done it for me

Odds makers are wrong at times i just cant see how you can just disregard this many injuries going against a legit contender look what mike nolan and this defense did to the manning brothers. but hey who knows anything is possible one of us will be right good luck brotha

 
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Posted: #42
Det/Buf teaser looks good 
BOL LC 
Gotta go pee!
 
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Posted: #43
Thx I'm gonna tail your biggest play of the year blind
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

Thx I'm gonna tail your biggest play of the year blind

that's crazy. I don't care if there is a 456 - 0 trend in this game. Having a bad injury ravaged 4 and 10 team (1-5 ats last six games) poor turnover ratio as a POY against a 12-2 dome team ( good turnover ratio) playing a non divisional foe in a dome with one win away from homefield AND coming off their best performance last week is the most wreckless POY from a respected capper I have ever seen on Covers. If u mentioned low stakes standard bet I might at least understand tat but POY!!Come on LC! 

Listen Detroit could cover or even win after all this is the NFL, but no one can convince me the Lions are a POY in this spot. It's Falcons or no play for me...Id never forgive myself if I took Detroit and then watch the commit turnover after turnover...Detroit as a POY in this game no matter what the trends are is lunacy..Even if it hits...
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by Mack05:


that's crazy. I don't care if there is a 456 - 0 trend in this game. Having a bad injury ravaged 4 and 10 team (1-5 ats last six games) poor turnover ratio as a POY against a 12-2 dome team ( good turnover ratio) playing a non divisional foe in a dome with one win away from homefield AND coming off their best performance last week is the most wreckless POY from a respected capper I have ever seen on Covers. If u mentioned low stakes standard bet I might at least understand tat but POY!!Come on LC! 

Listen Detroit could cover or even win after all this is the NFL, but no one can convince me the Lions are a POY in this spot. It's Falcons or no play for me...Id never forgive myself if I took Detroit and then watch the commit turnover after turnover...Detroit as a POY in this game no matter what the trends are is lunacy..Even if it hits...

Agree completely.

After the game his pick will either look like pure genius or complete lunacy.  My guess is for the latter.

What all those trends don't take into account is time of year or mindset.  Like when it is the last few weeks of regular season and your team has zero chance of going to the playoffs and your players have quit on the year. With the exception of Johnson trying to break Rice's record. This Detroit team minus 1 has given up and does not care anymore. What is left for them to play for? Nothing.



 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by Mack05:


that's crazy. I don't care if there is a 456 - 0 trend in this game. Having a bad injury ravaged 4 and 10 team (1-5 ats last six games) poor turnover ratio as a POY against a 12-2 dome team ( good turnover ratio) playing a non divisional foe in a dome with one win away from homefield AND coming off their best performance last week is the most wreckless POY from a respected capper I have ever seen on Covers. If u mentioned low stakes standard bet I might at least understand tat but POY!!Come on LC! 

Listen Detroit could cover or even win after all this is the NFL, but no one can convince me the Lions are a POY in this spot. It's Falcons or no play for me...Id never forgive myself if I took Detroit and then watch the commit turnover after turnover...Detroit as a POY in this game no matter what the trends are is lunacy..Even if it hits...

LC has presented some systems, not trends. A system play is generally a situational play and therefore is based on past games on teams in a similar situation. The fact that many of you in this thread are against the play makes it even stronger for me.

Thanks LC. I didn't know the numbers, but also saw it as a great situational spot to take the Lions.

cheers

 

 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by Mack05:


that's crazy. I don't care if there is a 456 - 0 trend in this game. Having a bad injury ravaged 4 and 10 team (1-5 ats last six games) poor turnover ratio as a POY against a 12-2 dome team ( good turnover ratio) playing a non divisional foe in a dome with one win away from homefield AND coming off their best performance last week is the most wreckless POY from a respected capper I have ever seen on Covers. If u mentioned low stakes standard bet I might at least understand tat but POY!!Come on LC! 

Listen Detroit could cover or even win after all this is the NFL, but no one can convince me the Lions are a POY in this spot. It's Falcons or no play for me...Id never forgive myself if I took Detroit and then watch the commit turnover after turnover...Detroit as a POY in this game no matter what the trends are is lunacy..Even if it hits...

LC has presented some systems, not trends. A system play is generally a situational play and therefore is based on past games on teams in a similar situation. The fact that many of you in this thread are against the play makes it even stronger for me.

Thanks LC. I didn't know the numbers, but also saw it as a great situational spot to take the Lions.

cheers

 

 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by tboon:

LC has presented some systems, not trends. A system play is generally a situational play and therefore is based on past games on teams in a similar situation. The fact that many of you in this thread are against the play makes it even stronger for me.

Thanks LC. I didn't know the numbers, but also saw it as a great situational spot to take the Lions.

cheers

 


System plays, trends, situational plays I couldn't care less what angle LC is coming from. Making the Lions a POY is a bad call for the reasons I mentioned above. Making a play on stuff that happened with other teams in the past I have always found to be quite ridiculous. Anything can happen in a game of football on any given day. Trends, situational plays, system plays are mainly based on coincidences IMO. No system play is a guarantee. If it were we would all be millionaires.

I'd rather back on what I see on a football field and what I have seen on a football field this season the Falcons should win this game. Therefore how can you take such a small spread against them? I am very confident at the end of this game Detroit backers will be saying what the hell was I thinking! 

a POY should be on a good team with powerful football angles backing you up. It shouldn't be based on what other teams in the past did with similar records in similar situations. Every team and season is different. Thats just my opinion..
 
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Posted: #49
Let me throw some numbers out there:

These are numbers on the game from one site...and the line really hasn't moved.  Seems just like the pattern from the Packers VS Bears game last week, and I correctly stuck with the Packers.  Not going to out think myself on this one either...and I actually got a bad line early in the week at -4, now at -3.5...good luck all:


Atlanta Falcons       $1,805,355     96.63%
Detroit Lions           $62,920          3.37%

Hit em hard this week
 
 
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Posted: #50

LC do you have any over/under plays this week, to go along with these 2?

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