Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999: I totally agree that someone with this methodology would help an NFL team to alert a coaching staff to possible poor performance coming into a game. As far as fading trends, I think there is a good rationale for that....Jowchoo on this forum had a massive year this year, probably the best of anyone on this site. As far as I could tell, his methodology was to find a team that had four or more performances above or below 500 and then to fade that trend in a teaser. For example if the Raiders were 0-4 to the OVER in the year to date, he would play them OVER their next game in a teaser, the rationale being that everything reverts back to the mean. It's hard to argue with his results, as he hit over 60% on over 400 plays and I do find it interesting that of all the cappers that I have seen on this forum, he is the only one that has detailed his approach, which is systematic in nature, and he is also been one of the best cappers here....I don't think that is a coincidence, as the universe gives back to those that give. I did this once in a very simplistic manner many years ago in baseball....I would look at home favorites or left handed pitchers, etc....and when they had won or lost three days in a row I would go the opposite...the bookmaker I had at the time said he'd never seen someone who had been as successful as I was over that season. I will definitely look at emulating Jowchoo's methods next season in the NFL. It is interesting that coaches are now well aware of phenomena like let down spots and trap games (I hear them talk about it in interviews) and try to anticipate and prevent it for their team, but those are so obvious compared to the level of influence that hidden historical trends, like those you find, have on the outcome of a game. That’s whole other level of performance related data and predictors. I believe I have seen Jowchoo’s thread but I did not know what his methodology was until you explained it. One method I’ve been using is watching line movements and comparing the ones between a sharp book and a square book: the difference is sometimes night and day. For instance, I got worried about my Detroit pick last night when the line at the sharp book dropped to -7.5 -110 before the game and it was still at -8.5 -115 at DraftKings. Meanwhile the ML fell to -490 while it was still -550 at DraftKings. When Detroit took a 7 point lead, the line at the sharp book hardly budged while the line at DraftKings went up, making Detroit a bigger favorite.
A big thankyou from the SDQL professor ..indigo
beginnerboy; Since my regession model by my definition cannot start until week 5, I approach the first 4 weeks thusly:
I have tracked pinnacle's lines for a few decades as I admire their crew, as the best in the business,year in year out.
When they have stand alone lines, they are by definition taking a position on that game. This position is more often then not the right side
So, together with my early season SDQL querys I fashion my plays. I way over achieved this year and fully expect to have my regression model
regress....lol Going (+61.2%) on 733 plays is not sustainable. I was reticent about sharing this as books pay attention and I was quite happy with the
public thinking 2 team 6/6.5 teasers were book friendly. While, the books finally woke up and now it is difficult finding good prices. My vig this year was between
-114 to -121. I have a new challenge this off season and that is to create a props model based on SDQL data. I like the potential.
GOOD LUCK
just going off memory here. At first, I thought that can't happen again but then watching the Bills punch two out and recovering both made me wonder again 
Think I'm with you on the Bills, only thing with Wash game is no rookie QB has won a Conf game 0-5 (ask google
) (Me I would like to see a Buff-Wash SB game)
Hot Forum Topics
