Although the concept is not at all understood by most part
time handicappers; capping is a hypothesis
that transcends to a viable theory via detailed study of teams, tendencies,
historical data, simulations, and recent trends that lead to asking/answering
the right questions. Now most cappers
skip the hypothesis, the theory, the questions, and jump straight to the
undeniable fact of a game result—no such thing… there never was, and never will
be indisputable guaranteed fact no matter how good their ‘feel’ was. All we can do is funnel down the information
into as few questions as possible that must be answered to try and pin down the
most likely result. I say this to
preface the questions that I believe must be answered in this match up—if I
answer correctly, I’ll win, if not, I’ll lose:
1)
Is Oakland’s recent success, winning streak and
divisional lead for real, or smoke and mirrors?
2)
Is Miami’s recent success, winning streak and
divisional lead for real, or smoke and mirrors?
3)
Is Carson Palmer playing as good as his impressive
record of 3-1 as a Raider starter ?
4)
Is Matt Moore playing as well as his recent
(last 4 gms) 3-1 record indicates?
Oakland’s recent
success: After starting the season
4-4 Oakland is an impressive 3-0 in their last 3 games, which has propelled
them to the top to the AFC West—one game ahead of the also surging Denver
Broncos. In their 3 game winning run,
they have beaten 2 teams with losing records, and 1 team with a winning record
(Chicago Bears). A few key points seem
to shed a little light on this winning run for me. One of the QB’s they beat in this win streak
was a first game starter in Caleb Hanie (Bears), who was in position to attempt a game winning drive with 1:01 to go
in the game starting from his own 5 yard line down 25-20. In 6 plays he moved this complete rookie
drove his team 42 yards and spiked the ball for a penalty of Intentional
grounding..game over/rookie mistake. In
that game vs this first game rookie, the Raiders offense was trumped in total
yardage 401 to the Raiders 341. First
downs: Raiders 17/Bears 18. The Bears
redzone efficiency was 1 for 2, while the Raiders were only 1 for 5, and goal
to go efficiency was Bears 1 for 1 and Raider 1 for 3…vs a First game starter
mind you. The Raiders did win the game
for only 1 reason; Haney threw 2 TDs and
3 INT’s to Palmers 0 TD’s and 1 INT…. Raiders were +2 in turnover ratio, if
not, they lose this game to a rookie QB who had a 56.9 passer rating.
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