PLAY: Houston @ Cincinnati (and Write UP)

Houston @ Cincinnati -3

O-Lines:

A key to this game is going to be how uncomfortable Cincy can make 3^rd string QB T.J. Yates in the pocket.  Cincy’s best pass rusher (Carlos Dunlap) will be out for this match up, and this will make it easier for Houston to slow down Cincy sack leader (Geno Atkins).  Dunlap is the NFL’s leader in QB rushes, hurries, and hit percentage (18.81% of pass rushes).  The Texans have started out the season with a ‘patch worked’ O line, but have done an excellent job of QB protection (believe it or not seeing that they are down to their 3^rd string QB) giving up the 3^rd least QB sacks on the season (19).   Yates is on a ‘game management’ regimen, and if Cincy fails to pressure him he will be able to stay in that capacity. 

Cincy’s O-line has done a bang up job of protecting Andy Dalton; giving up only 20 sacks.  The Sacks allowed is even more impressive when you consider that AJ Green is the only WR that Dalton seems to trust. 

D-Lines/QB pressure:

Houston has a much better pass rushing crew (tied w/ Dallas for 2^nd most in the NFL this season) having gotten to opposing QB’s 35 times.  Antonio Smith leads the Texans in the ‘hits/hurries/sacks (combined) percentage; he does so 1.28 times out of every 10 pass rushes. (JJ Watt is close behind with doing so 0.91 times per pass rush)

Cincy’s Geno Atkins will be (as stated above) the Houston O-lines primary focus.  The question is can Marv lewis devise a way to get a couple other linemen/backers in to pressure Yates?  Cincy is going to have to force Houston into a one dimensional offense (running Adrian Foster).. if they know Foster is going to be most of the offense it will be easier to slow him down, and then force Houston to have to rely on Yates to throw (Atlanta held Foster down to 3.5 YPC last week—from his season average 4.1 due to predictability). 

Overall D’s:  Cincy’s 6^th ranked rushing defense can keep Foster down to less than 100 yards if they can get to Yates   Houston will most likely run the ball 60-63% of their offensive plays. 

Houston allows a league lowest 15.8 pts per game, and going against Cincy’s “middle of the pack’ scoring offense (22.2 per game)

 

Offenses:

Houston attempts the NFL’s most rushing attempts per game (36), and Cincy averages 27.8 per game.  Hence, the defensive game plan is going to be much simpler for Cincy… Foster is going to get 30+ carrys in this game.  The question lies in whether Dalton is going to trust any of his other receivers to make plays in this one.  AJ Green can get open, and Dalton can hit him, but Dalton is not targeting anyone else lately, so the opposing teams can double,… no …TRIPLE cover Green (unless Dalton starts throwing to the other wide outs)   I really think the Cincy passing game will open up the running game for Cedric Benson; and he has a better day than Foster today.

Variables: 

Time of possession is going to be huge in this game… Houston has the best TOP in the NFL for the season @ 33:29 per game.  Cincy also controls the clock a majority of the time (barely) @ 30:22 per game.  NOTE:  Cincy controlled the majority of the TOP only once in this 5 losses, but they controlled the clock in everyone of their 7 wins.

Houston has controlled the majority of the  clock in each of their  9 wins this season as well.

Turnovers: Houston is +12 in TO’s (season), and Cincy is -1.   Cincy averages an impressive 0.2 lost fumbles per game, while Houston is not far behind with 0.4.  Dalton has thrown 5 int’s in the last 5 games, but none in the last 2 going against Pittsburgh and Cleveland (2 fairly respectable defenses)

Yates has gone against 2 top ten D’s in his last 2 games played, and made no critical errors.  Cincinatti is also played stellar offenses in the last few weeks (Pitt, Cleve, Balt, Pitt) So neither team should be shell shocked by facing a quality D, but I think Yates would be the QB most likely to make a big mistake (s) in this one.

Cincinnati is fighting to stay alive in the playoff chase, while Houston is getting close to being a post season lock @ 9-3…. Advantage Cincy @ home for motivation to win.

Guys, this comes down to one question, literally…who can control the TOP…. ??  I think yes, and the team that controls the TOP in this one wins.

I think….

Cincy is +1 (or better) in TO ratio in this game.

I think Foster is held in check with a max of 125 yds (I know that is a good day for a RB, but that would still necessitate Yates need to throw the ball. Which is what Cincy wants not having Andre Johnson  in the lineup, Yates will have to take chances to try to win this game.

I think this will be a nail biter, but I have it at…..

Cincy 19 – Houston 13

 

Cincinnati -3 

 Like it KS - WHO DEY!!  Bengals must win to stay in contention for a Wild Card spot.

as simple as it is....best post I've read

@ doliver517...thanks man 

gl, not seeing lots of bengals love so you maybe onto something --GL Sir

Nice write up, was leaning CINCI, I like em for sure now, thanks, GL

Glad to see you on Cincy KS, I have Jets, Cincy, Titans, Skins, AZ Cards parlay.

on Cincy as well

I appreciate and enjoy your writeups, but I love the texans here.  I think it could possibly be a let down spot for cincy after the loss to Pitt last week; there's no way they bring the same intensity this week.  Cincy couldn't tackle Mendenhall last week, so I think Hou will actually be successful running the ball.  And while cincy loads up the box to stop the run, the play action will be effective and Yates should only need to make a few big throws this game. 

I've been wrong before, just thought I would share my thoughts.  GL

 KS.

This is one of the best capping posts I've ever read on this site.  Excellent work.

We agree on key variables, but we differ on conclusions :).

I project Houston to hold the ball 31 minutes, and to have the edge in total pressure (ints, sacks, fumbles, sack yards, penalty yards, net punt yards).

Cinci's year to date schedule is interesting in that basically they have played a lot of good defenses but not that many good offenses outside of division.  My take is that they have gotten to the point in their evolution where they can beat lesser teams but might have an inferiority complex against the better teams.

I acknowledge that where my "house of cards" could fall apart is in drinking the Yates coolaid.  All week long we've been subjected to a lot of media spin about how he's cool under pressure, can make plays, blah, blah, blah.  It's very reminscent of the media's love affair with Dalton before he started playing division games, lol.

At a high level, I just think Cinci is outmatched, by a small margin, in virtually every category except the deep ball.  Houston's secondary did let the falcons' wrs get past them on several plays where ryan just failed to make the throw, so I could see a scenario where cinci get's up early and yates folds under the pressure, but i'm going to make the key assumption that wade corrects these failures from last week's game.

Texans 24-13.

BOL.

 

good points, but i've got it cinci 24-13...yates will fold.

nice writeup -good to have someone here who backs their pick with reasoning.

Let's do it cincy

KScapping, nice writeup there and I sense that the Bengals will bring their A game. I am thinking that the Bengal defense will force Yates into mistakes and points.

 Nice work bro. Thank ou

Couple of points about your write up:

I disagree that Yates is on a "game management" regiment.  If you have read any of Kubiak's comments you would know that he fully expects the offense to keep doing what they were doing with Schaub at the helm.  The playbook will not be reduced.  Also, the Hou offense is designed to use play action off of their outstanding running game which gives a player like Yates the ability to move around and find multiple wrs on crossing routes and short dump offs if necessary. 

You never mention Ben Tate...he has to be factored in.  ARIAN (not Adrian) Foster may be held to 100 yards, but that means Tate probably has close to that many as well.  People seem to forget that there is a two headed monster running the ball for Houston and they are able to keep whoever is running the ball fresh at all times.

This idea that Houston is not as motivated is just absurd.  They have a chance to clinch a playoff berth!!! You don't think they are motivated??  Of course they are. (side note: the unknown beast on the defense, Connor Barwin, is returning to his college home and expect him to be a star today)

Finally, this team just has something about it... they have IT this year.  They are the definition of a team.  I spoke to Duane Brown this week and he is fully aware that they are being picked to lose this game and his response was, "that's the way we like it."  They are not complacent.  They are going to fight like hell to win this game.

Just my opinion....good luck with all your other plays. 

I like Cin as well - using data but different rationale - ranks, sked etc.. In this game we have the following scenario:

 First number is of rank for rush. Pass.  Def rush Def Pas.  Sagarin rank and sagrin sked strenght.                                                      

                      Hous     3  17  4   3  4  25 

3(opening line) Cin       20 19 6   10 12 13   

In this scenario, hous is better in 5 categories cin 1.  That being the case most would think Hous is the pick. However, History has shown that if the 1 team is favored and has a better sagaring total 29 for hous 25 for cin - take cinc.  Same conclusion, different way to get there and i'm glad to have confirmation from a guy who predicted Army 21 Navy 27 - wow - awesome my friend and good luck today.