Packers @ Bears Discussion

Too many key PACKER injuries and walking wounded compared with Bears

Parsons is HUGE!  and their other stellar rush end WYATT is OUT!

They will likely be w/o star deep safety Williams too!

OL is thin and likely to miss a starter.

What helped them get here was all those players PLUS star TE Tucker Kraft - OUT!

Two receivers will most likely play on bad wheels...

Bears much stronger AT HOME than GB is on the road.

 WRONG TEAM FAVORED!...although that does not guarantee a BEAR's win. In my thread on Sunday night, I already designated BEARS a *Best Bet along with a few others. 

Bears just flipped to -1.5 at DK, thats a 3 point flip.

There is nothing to discuss. Bears win. Its simple

https://beargoggleson.com/grady-jarrett-sends-a-clear-message-to-bears-fans-prior-to-packers-showdown

Tremendous respect for Jordan Love here, and this is the frame of mind the Bears have to be in.

Just cause he had a rough game in Denver doesn't mean he will again.

Personally, I think that Dennis Allen has to take a page out of Vance Joseph's book. On blitz's, try some zone blitzing a few times. Disguise some blitz's.

If he shows Love straight blitz with man behind it like he did 2 weeks ago, forget about it. I don't care what wr is playing for GB, he'll get them the ball.

What he does I have no clue.

It just flipped back to Gbay -1.5, lol. That was quick, about 15 minutes. We will probably see the line ping pong back & forth in the coming days before the game just like the Rams vs Seattle line doing the same.

Id have to go with Green Bay just purely based on the fact its incredibly hard to beat a division rival twice in a year and especially when that rival is a solid talented team. 

The Packers won the first matchup 

@JGiles99

 I like the Bears Sunday but lets slow down with the hype train here. The Bears are a nice team but calling their defense close to tops in the NFL is pushing it. I watched my disgusting Giants and Jaxson Dart do whatever they wanted to that Chicago defense a few weeks ago. 

@NYG4rings

 In the Bears last 3 games: vs Eagles, Packers and Browns.

6th in defensive epa per play and success rate.

7th in defensive drop back epa per play and dropback success rate.

14th in rush epa per play, and 13th in rush success rate.

1st in opponents 1st downs per game at 13.3(tied with Seattle)

3rd in opponent avg time of possession(24:47)

1st in opponents punts per play

6th in opponents comp %(57.45%)

This is since week 13. If you remember in week 12 they were without all their starting LB's vs Pitt. Also without starting CB Jaylon Johnson, and starting Nickel Kyler Gordon. But Gordon has only played in 3 games this year, he misses all the time and they can't count on him. The Bears picked up CJ Gardner Johnson in week 9 vs the Bengals. It will be his 8th start with the team.

As a team the Bears are 4th best with the least penalties per game at 4.0 the last 3 games.

Things are coming together. The Bears are gaining positive traction each and every week. Real good coaching.

@undermysac

 Its good info Sac I appreciate the effort/post. Better than I thought I must admit especially in the penalties per game category... well coached indeed. I do believe CHI is the right side Sunday... in general I have thought GB was overvalued/overrated by the public this entire season (too much of a jekyl and hyde offense for me). If CHI can get through this last 3 game gauntlet with more wins against GB, SF, DET we will be looking at a team nobody wants to see in the postseason. 

Only odd thing about the Bears is they are 1-3 SU in their division. I think they beat Gbay Saturday & the Lions week 18 to finish 3-3 in their division.

Lions beat the Bears 52-21 week 2, the Bears started the season 0-2, so Bears are looking for revenge vs Gbay & Lions now that the Bears are feeling good about themselves.

That total is 2 - 2' higher than it closed in their last meeting which did go O, I have a strong lean to the Under. Though I think the Bears side is probably the better wager.

Sac, here is the list of teams Broncos beat at home.

2-12 Titans

2-12 Giants

2-12 Raiders

4-10 Bengals

6-7-1 Boys

6-8 KC 

And Boys did not start playing better untill after playing Broncos and losing the next week.

That leaves the opp with the best record, a losing record at that as the team that won the week after playing Broncos.

I don't think these teams were losing because of playing Denver in Denver.

Something to think about.

I took a quick look at Bears, not this bad but they beat some weak teams so not surprised  those teams would lose the week after any opp.

@theclaw

That is fair, those teams aren't good.

The thing that stood out to me was that those teams lost on the spread by an 8.08 margin. That's pretty strong to consistently lose to the market by over a td.

That trend also showed a huge amount of points allowed, an average of 31.33 ppg. That signifies a tired defense to me after altitude. Albeit, those teams having a poor defense anyhow.

It was a part of my handicap, but not all of it. We'll need a little luck too as always. 

Bears win. Packers have been inconsistent all year. Football gods don’t reward teams like the Packers. You didn’t want to hear a bunch of mumbo jumbo but it’s that simple. The Bears have played their a s s es off all year and either the refs or gods(same thing) will reward them for it. Then the Lions and Packers will duke it out for the last playoff spot. 

I think GB wins and it all leads up to a Ben Johnson vs Dan Campbell game in Week 18 to make the playoffs.

My lord im in dream land. Cant even remember whats going on anymore. I get it now. I was impressed by the bears watching the game so I thought they won. Shows you how big of a deal perception is and how it can help you and also its something that needs to be overcome

Net qb pressures, sacks, plays per drive ALL favor Bears. Money line is my bet.

And teams suck this year after playing the Jets...is that because NYJ is good and beats their opponents down? Nope, just pure coincidence that teams haven't had success the following week

Bears ran all over Eagles defense so not sure Bears D was all that great in that game not to mention Eagles offense is a struggle bus... and Browns in 10 degree Temps with Shadeur at QB? Wooptido...

Sac!

Great call last week on NE 1H last week. Solid shit.

Based on line and perception these past 5-10  years, this "situation" points to GB being the side to take, even though your raw handicapping is clear and CHI is the only fundemental, real handicapping play ESPECIALLY the injuries on both teams. There is something hiding behind the scenes and the "sharps" are the new "squares" or new "public"

Based on handicapping It has to be CHI or no play

My heart and soul is with DA BEARS!

My wallet will make them a small Saturday night "Just for thrills" ML bet.

Get 'em Sac!

It's clear for all to see

If Chicago beats the Packers this Saturday night they will be going places

If Chicago loses to the Packers this weekend it'll be hard to show our Faces.

Go Bears! 

There is a lot to like about the Bears.

I don’t like how Ben Johnson talked shit about the Packers and Lefleur before the season.  

With Parsons going out you might see the team step up and rally   

good luck 

I hear Da Bears are moving 

As per Adam Trautman, going fast was part of the game plan for Sean Payton last week using the thin air against the Packers. They did not want to let their defense get off the field. So they use the same personnel in their packages to cancel out defensive substitutions. 

I have the Bears +2.5 and then +7.5 in a parlay. It is hard for teams to go to Denver and recuperate fast enough. Now Packers have B2B road trips against a division rival who not only has revenge for this year but over a decades worth.

Ben Johnson should win Coach of the Year and I don’t think it should be close. I think the Packers are too banged up to go win in Chicago, who is also battling for a #1 Seed for the NFC. 2.5 home pups have been doing well lately.

Chicago has 21 INTs to GB’s 7 on defense.

GB banged up. 

Love and Williams have comparable numbers.  

If the line follows last week’s Buffalo/NE game, I will be worried.