Packers @ Bears Discussion

Huge rematch in the windy city on Saturday night.

The Bears playoff percentage is currently 71%, that jumps to 92% with a win, and drops to 53% if they lose.

The Packers are currently 87% to make it. With a win they are 99%, with a loss 75%.

This game means more for the Bears, by the percentages.

The odds have both the Packers and Bears at even to win the NFC North. That's from a quick AI search, correct me if I'm wrong at what you guys are seeing at your books.

Do me, and everyone else here a favor, please don't state something to the tune of "the Bears need this more, so they will win". We're not going to handicap like that.

Teams who have faced the Bears this year are now 2-10 su in their following game, ie the Packers losing to Denver. Last week the Browns recorded the 11th worst dvoa game in history vs the Bears. How much of it was the Browns checking out, plus the cold, or the Bears putting it on them, I'm not sure but I'd say a little of all of it. I wouldn't advise a Browns ML bet this week.

Any comments and info welcome. Good luck 

It's a pure and simple fact sac! 

The Bears will be up for the task rest assured but if they can't beat their nemesis division rivals the packers of Green Bay at home in which they haven't done in a decade, then so be it and until they do.... enjoy the off season.

Sorry not sorry 

At first glance.. with all the media attention on Parsons I could see a lot of action coming in on the Bears which definitely makes me hesitate any Bears action.. Christian Watson was banged up so he’s up in the air until we find out anymore info..

Not sure what Laflour off a SU loss stats are but I believe they’re good.. 

Caleb has lost a little bit of trust with me versus the packers.. Odunze has been banged up for a while and Luther has an ankle injury and you have to think the packers will be up for slowing down the run game this time around.. with a short line like this and greenbays defense not being 100% I can still see Greenbay squeezing out a win but this is definitely a tough one 

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2025/12/16/packers-injury-updates-on-christian-watson-micah-parsons-zach-tom-and-josh-jacobs/87796143007/

We all know the significance of the Parsons injury. But the name worth noting the most, other than him is RT Zach Tom. He's the Packers best o lineman, scoring an 83.5 PFF grade.

In week 14 he held Montez Sweat to 1 qb hit and 1 sack. It was the only qb hit and only sack that the Bears could muster in the whole game. They pressured him only 13 times. They allowed only 2 unblocked pressures. Jordan Love posted a 120.7 passer rating. 

What was different in Denver for the Packers? The Broncos D line is tremendous, and generates pressure with their front 4 better than any team.

Per Pro Football Focus:

"Jordan Love dealt with an incredible 27 dropbacks under pressure, a season high. He took three sacks, scrambled three times, threw the ball away three times and threw two interceptions. His passer rating when pressured was only 32.3. Playing winning football when your quarterback is so consistently disrupted in the pocket is tough to do"

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/sports/nfl/chicago-bears/bears-injury-report-has-updates-on-rome-odunze-luther-burden/3864541/

Personally, I think that Luther Burden is more important than Rome Odunze at this point. At least for this game. The kid is explosive and is better at getting yac than any Bears WR.

Fun fact, the 2 highest rookie receiver grades this year per PFF belong to 2 Bears.

Colston Loveland 78.6

Luther Burden 75.9

Kmet also went down vs the Browns. He was able to walk off and there was no need for him to come back into the game. Same goes for Burden. We'll see how these injuries play out.

Otherwise the Bears are relatively healthy, and much healthier at this point in the season compared to the rest of the league. 

Back in week 12, they found themselves in a spot where all their starting linebackers were out vs the Steelers. Demarco Jackson was called up from the practice squad and has been lights out since. He led the Bears with 15 tackles vs the Steelers.

Against the Browns this past week he scored a 93.5 PFF rating. With 7 tackles, 1 sack, 1 qb hit, 1 interception and 2 pass break ups.

He has been Tremaine Edmunds replacement since Edmunds landed on IR after week 11. TJ Edwards has been back for 2 games, and so has Noah Sewel.

The Bears run defense held Quinshon Judkins to 21 yards on 12 attempts, and -4 receiving yards on 3 receptions. 

4 of the Bears starting 5 o linemen have played in every game this year. Rookie LT Ozzie Trapilo was thrust into a starting role in week 12. He remained the starter even when LT Theo Benedet returned from injury. That's how good he's been. He's allowed 2 sacks and called for 1 penalty in 4 games.

@ChOmP

 The lookahead line was GB -3. It's now at -1 at most books. 

The Packers are beat up and coming off a game in elevation on a short week. 

There's only one way this line could of moved, and it's warranted imo.

Teams that played Denver are 3-10 su. 2-11 ats the next game. 

Chi for me but not lock in yet, just lean base on that Den trend.

Nice, I just looked at the #'s for teams after playing in Denver. Coming up...

Teams in their game after playing @ Denver:

1-5 SU, 1-4-1 ATS

PS=19.83, PA=31.33, avg margin= -11.50

Avg spread for those games: +3.42

Losing avg margin of the spread by 8.08 ppg.

The one ats tie/su win was KC who was -3 against the Colts at home, where the game went into OT.

Matt LaFleur with Jordan Love after a loss:

8-6 SU, PS=19.71, PA=19.35, avg margin -0.36

Pythagorean W/L in these games= 6.8-7.2

Pulling the trigger now. This is too strong to ignore.

In theory the Packers played the Bears, then the Broncos, 2 teams who after teams have just played them, went a combined 5-20 su, and now have to come back and play one of those teams again otr....

Bears ML(-105) *2.10/2.00

Bears -2.5(+114) *1.00/1.14

So much for looking at a game all week. If the line moves drastically enough, maybe I'll take a small piece of the Packers the other way.

If the line shifts to GB as a dog, those dogs are 0-7 su. 0-7 ats after playing Denver.

Parsons injury is massive...he is a true game wrecker

I think the line will flip by game day.

It's not just the Parsons injury. WR Christian Watson was also hurt last week and is questionable for this game. And the Packers offense hasn't been the same since Tucker Kraft went down. My ratings have the Bears a slight favorite here with the home field factored in, and they're having a year where the ball seems to be bouncing their way. I'm leaning Chicago.

Terrible injury & not good for Gbay. Could we see Gbay go winless rest of the way, finishing 9-7-1.

It may sound funny to say this, but the Micah Parsons injury may not be as significant to this particular game against the bears, as it is in general for the Packers in the grand scheme of things.

Caleb has the highest escape rate in the nfl. He's the fastest qb in the nfl. In the week 14 matchup Parsons had only 1 tackle, 2 qb hits and no sacks. Parsons was gasping for air all second half and taking himself out.

I'm not undermining the injury, just another perspective. 

I think that getting pressure on Jordan Love is the biggest key in this game. The Bears front 4 are not that good at pressuring without blitzing, and pressure is Love's kryptonite. Hence my emphasis on Zach Tom's injury. 

@Boisestateand8

 Also wyatt injury for packers. He was having  a good year

No Michael Parsons is huge.  I know he s just 1 player, but he carries alot of leadership and energy.  

Bears are going to smoke the packers this weekend. 

It's Bears +1(-115) right now.

It wouldn't be that shocking if it was Bears -1(-105) by gameday.

I know.    I said that post with my heart & a bears fan .    The Bears still have alot of work on, but overall, our defense once were healthy, the best in the NFL.  Our coaching is Top 3 in the NFL.  Oir offense. The duo of  Swift & Monagai.  Our offensive line is paying off, and then you add all the weapons we have at WRs. 

The Bears are the real deal! Im not just saying that as a die hard bears fan.   The Bears are a very balanced football team in every category.  I just hope we can get and stay healthy. 

Great point.   Watson being out is a huge loss for GB. 

Da Bears are not loaing this game this weekend unless we have 2 or more turnovers.   Book it. 

Ben Johnson is a hell of a leader.  He has this team focused and all the components are aligned.