No way 49ers win or cover

Saints wont score more than 21 points.

I've read other repectable people say the same thing about the saints not scoring. I read that on the road the saints scoring % drops dramatically on the road. Don't have the numbers handy but it was an interesting stat.

THE NINERS WILL COVER THAT SPREAD! I THINK THEY WILL WIN! N.O HAS THE 30TH RANKED TOUGHEST SCHEDULE, IF AND WHEN THE NINERS PUT THAT "D" ON BREES, IT WILL BE ALL OVER!!

Here is the simplest way to explain it:  When you buy points, you lay more juice.  When laying more juice, you must win at a higher percentage to make up for that juice.

Here are the numbers:

Juice is -110 means you must win at a little over 52% to BREAK EVEN

Juice is -120 means you must win at close to 55% to BREAK EVEN

Most places charge -130 when buying to 7 or 3.  This means you must win at about 58% to BREAK EVEN...

This doesn't even account for the chances that the number you bought the line to even comes into play (which are also slim).  Over time, buying points will cost you money.  It's just a losing proposition.

I hope this helps...  BOL

With all due respect, I see a lot of east coast bias not giving a lot of respect to the best defense in the NFC. Best special teams too. Best turnover margin in the NFL as well. With home field advantage. Outdoors (which, if you take out the name Saints and just look at the numbers, everyone would concede is a major weakness for the visiting team) is a huge factor.

Jussayin

[Quote: Originally Posted by anais71]

IF SANF -3, WHAT WOULD YOU GO?

BOL

NOR

Saints win straight up by 4-7 points, likely more.

SF Defense can only stay with the NO feirepower for so long and trading FG's for TD's will force SF to throw the ball in the 2nd half of the 2nd half, resulting in Alex Smith throwing a lot of bad passes or even a pick or two, and making Frank Gore a non-factor.

SF is not a does not play well from behind, but that's exactly what they will have to do against the NO Saints.

Unless Brees starts throwing INT's all over the place, something he rarely does as he has thrown less than one per game this season in against a much tougher schedule. (Based on schedule strength, SF played the 30th "toughest" opponents" NO played the 13th toughest.) SF will need the aforementioned "perfect storm" of Turnovers, ST TD's or Field Position, a fumble recovery or two, and some lucky bounces.

In other words, everything will have to go their way for them to win.

NO should just stack the box, double Vernon Davis and put their best cover corner on Michael Crabtree.

Alex Smith gets sacked once about every 10 pass attempts, while Brees gets sacked about once every 27 pass attempts, again, Brees plays in a tougher Division and has three Pro-Bowlers on his OL, so he should have time to throw to his game-breakers and the OL should open up some lanes for his RB's as well.

Yes, the 49ers have a good D, but not a great D and it is overrated IMO based on the opposition they have played and the Division they have played in. Even when they played a good team like Pittsburgh, Roth was hurt and it was obvious that his injury has adversely affected his accuracy.

They say good Defense beats a good Offense, but there are too many exceptions to list.

The 49ers also got a lot of Turnovers, but again, that was partly due to playing the 30th weakest schedule in the NFL - teams that likely turned the ball over against everyone they played.

And here's a link to a stat about teams that live off of turnovers - for them, it's either feast or famine, and in the playoffs when they play good teams, it's almost always famine:

https://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_5207_Turnover_triumph_a_double-edged_sword_for_49ers.html

The 49ers had the 30th toughest schedule, not the Saints. They were tied for 13th toughest:

https://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/35095/2011-strength-of-schedule

Of course, these numbers are based on the records of opponents' 2010 record. The Rams went 7-9 in 2010, but went 2-14 in 2011, so maybe the 49ers had the 32nd "toughest" schedule" in 2011

The Cards had a better record than last year, so that might even it out a bit, but still, the above link has the 49ers at 30th, not the Saints.

If you have something more up to date, please post it.

Yeah, Drew Brees' only has a 100.7 QB rating on the road.

Awful.

BTW, can you source your claim that the 49ers have the best Special Teams in the NFL this season?

And having the best Turnover margin in the regular season almost always equates into a loss in the playoffs:
https://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_5207_Turnover_triumph_a_double-edged_sword_for_49ers.html

My theory is that the team that gets the most TO's does so because they play a lot of bad teams that TO's the ball 2-3 times a week to everyone they play. Then when the playoffs roll around and the opposition isn't a bad team and prone to TO's, then suddenly, the 49ers don't get that extra TD or that extra possession or two in good field position.

And even if they get one or even two TO's, a team like the Saints can overcome them.

The Saints remind me of the 2000 Rams. Great Offense, mediocre Defense. They would turn it over 2-3 times a game, but next possession would just go out and score a TD after TD after TD
They would either score a TD or turn it over. No punts, no FG's.
When their FG kicker was injured, they didn't sign another one, they just went for it on 4th down in FG range, no matter how many yards they needed for a 1st.

4rd & 10 from the 33?
No problem.

The Saints are also good at converting 3rd downs, something like a rate of 57%  success.

Granted, the Saints aren't as good on the road as they are at home and the 49ers aren't as good on the road as at home either.

The 49ers do have a good Defense, and they had an extra week of rest, but they aren't the Steelers of the 1970's or even the TB Bucs of the late 90's, early 2000's

Their LB's are good, but Jerry Glanville's "Gritz Blitz" LB's of the late 70's are still the best, IMO
That team allowed less than 10 ppg. and still holds the record for least ppg.
Not even the 85 Bears, who many consider the best D ever can say that.
Glanville didn't have any kind of Offense to go along with that great Defense though, as they only scored about 14 ppg.

The 49ers put up good numbers against bad teams, inflating their stats.
They have a good, but not a great Defense.

And like I said, it will take a "perfect storm" of events like a KO/PR/Defensive return for a TD, a couple of INT's,/Fumbles, dropped passes, lots of Sacks, Penalties, a tipped pass at the LOS falling into the right hands, etc...basically "winning ugly" with a lot of help and a lot of luck.

And please post the best Special Teams in the NFL stat as I haven't been able to find it.

Thanks.

Congrats to those that went with SF - not only did they win in the last few seconds, they also covered the - 3.5

Like I said, it would take a "perfect storm" of INT's, Fumbles, a little luck and winning ugly and that the Saints needed to double or help out on Vernon Davis with a Safety and to put their best cover corner on Crabtree and to not let Gore chew up the clock.

Gore had 88 yards on 13 carries, but half of those yards came on one carry and they still count, but they don't chew up the clock.

Either way, Saints DC Gregg Williams laid an egg on the 49ers last possession by playing soft and playing man on man on Vernon Davis with a LB on the pass on the left sideline, while he had 4 dbs playing about 50 yards downfield.

Baffling.

Despite the 5 Turnovers, the Saints still hung 32 pts. on the vaunted SF Defense, in SF

They will probably luck out and not have to go into Green Bay in mid-January.

The 49ers have a good Defense, but not a great Defense, as Great Defenses don't give up 36 pts. at home in the playoffs.

The TO's bailed them out, and the helmet to helmet hit halfway thru the 1Q was questionable and could've easily turned out to be a game changer had a ref throw a flag.

Regardless, Congrats on the hard-fought win, but I've been watching the NFL for a long time and teams like SF eventually run out of luck and ends up being the team that turns it over 5x, then their fans wail about how "they gave it away" and how "they should've have won" and the "refs screwed them out of a trip to the SB" etc...

My prediction of Saints 27- 49ers 23 was looking solid for most of the last quarter, then things got crazy.

49ERS NOT ONLY WIN BUT COVER OUTRIGHT!!!

fuckin moron lol

whoops 

Congrats 49ers backers.

Tough being on the right side and seeing your team give it away 4 times.  Saints cut that in half and they cover this game easy.  The one by Sproles was terrible, no one even knocked out of his hands and Pierre Thomas needs to learn to take a hit.  My God that was pathetic.

Congrats to the 9er backers... They brought their A game and the saints just let Vernon Davis run free on them all day

Maybe if the Saints backers would have looked at the way SF created Turnovers this would not be so baffling to them?

Moblife: Give me a break without those 5 ill say again 5 turnovers the 49ers wouldnt of had a chance. Congrats to the 49ers backers!!!! If your gonna talk shit why dont you contribute something IDIOT!!!!

That 4th 1/4 will be a classic in NFL films and was probally the best one in playoff history,it was great to see Alex Smith grow up as a football player,it played out to whoever had the ball last won,but for those that bet my Niners getting 3.5 not -3.5,
you were winning the whole game I believe.
Come on Giants,beat GB,lol