Niners vs Shithawks for are the NFC marbles. Deep Dive write up leaving no stones unturned for old times sake.

I will side with the homer here.

Public has not caught up with the Niners' offensive execution.

NINERS by 17!!

Coming from a whiner fan that havent won a Super Bowl sine 1995..lol

@JimmyGape

  No chance niners beat Seahawks 

Niners will not play a home Superbowl their year will be over soon 

@JimmyGape

  No chance niners beat Seahawks 

Niners will not play a home Superbowl their year will be over soon 

great write up..Thanks!

49er's defense is very suspect against a team who has a good defense in the playoffs. I like the 49ers but Warner's loss  on defense is big for them. .Bosa's loss doesn't help either.  Will the 49ers be exhausted from the Bears game?  I hope they win but Hawks keep pulling rabbits out of their hats  somehow with Darnold.

Small lean on Niners

you going gape

You’re way wrong on this one. SF defense is a sieve. Garbage defined. This won’t be a game today. It’s only a matter of time until pursy falls apart. Hate both teams but this is Seattle all day 

Just by the title on this thread calling the Superbowl favorite shithawks and his never ending threads praising his beloved 49ers should in itself tell you about the validation of his play..

Could his play win? .... absolutely 

Could his play lose? .... absolutely 

I like Seattle in this match up and I'm most positive that this thread would still have appeared even if the Bears were victorious in last week's game.

One reason I would take 49er, Sam Donald suck in important game specially playoff game..

SEAHAWKS by 17!!!

@best_bets

I think it matters. Defense wins championships my friend. 

This is incorrect in the NFL, and has been for a long time now.

The NFL is offensive-driven and QB-driven.  

It certainly helps to have an elite defense.  But an elite offense has been a far more reliable predictor of championships.

@JimmyGape

The Seattle Seahawks Are Frauds

Yeah, I said it. Frauds.

Seattle has the number one defense in DVOA. They've got 44 sacks on the year, which is impressive. They only allow 18.6 points per game, second best in the league. On paper, this is an elite unit.

But let's look at who they've been playing.

They played the same schedule, essentially.  In those 13 'common games', including the one against each other  -- SEA was 10-3 and SF was 9-4.

In those games SEA avg scores were 28.84-19.84 and SF avg scores were 25.32-22.15.

In the 3 games where they played 'uncommon' opponents SEA went 3-0 and the scores avg 31.67-10.3, while SF went 3-0 with a score avg 34-23.3

So, there is more to it than implying SEA are frauds and have been playing bad teams.

@JimmyGape

 I am not disagreeing with you.  I am on the same side.  I am just saying that there is a lot of left out context.

But very nice writeup, otherwise.

I have taken a very large position on SF.

BOL to you in this game!

@JimmyGape

 I beg to differ with you on your comment about how close (or not) the Bears 49ers game was. It was tied  at 14, at 21, at 28, and at 35. Can't get much closer. And the 49ers were 2 or 3 feet away from losing on the end zone pass and the end of the game that was short bc Caleb threw it off his back feet. The weather conditions will be horrible so we'll see. I think Seattle wins but Darnold needs to have a monster game. This is a game SF needs badly bc if they win and keep winning they will not have to leave the state up to and including the Super Bowl.

you are right with the turnover angle

I hear a lot of talk about turnovers.. 

In the last 3 games 

Brock Purdy

11 TDs and 2 INTs 

Sam Darnold in the same span has 

3 TDs and 3 INTs 

The quarterback that turns it over less this game will win.. Pressure is cooking who do you trust more under pressure?

This is a playoff game 

Sure, but is that even a 'hot take'?  Turnovers in a game naturally are a positive indicator of who won that game.

The amount of TDs have nothing to do with that because it is a separate indicator.

So, in the last 3 games one has thrown 3 INTs and one has thrown 2INTs.  But all INTs are to created equal.

I think they have both also fumbled a couple of times in those games.

The INT% number itself is more important -- and they are close Purdy 3.5% and Darnold 3.1%

Darnold has fumbled more but has played more games.

SEA is averaging 1.5 takeaways a game and SF 1.0

On the season SEA and SF both have a -.3 turnover margin per game.

If someone says this will be an indicator of who wins this game --- as it is in a large amount of games -- they have to show where there is a vast reason why one or the other will 'create' or 'have' more turnovers.

Some have argued the rain, etc.

But the teams are fairly equal in this and so are the QBs to me.

In other words, whoever wins the turnover part of the game may very well win.  But it should not be because one or the other is simple better at causing them or giving them.

It will simply be in the flow of the game.

Now, if it were CHI playing NYJ -- then a very clear case can be made for this to be a major fact in handicapping that matchup.

CHI leads the takeaway margin at +1.4 per game and NYJ is the worst at -1.2 per game.

Seattle had the final game of 2019 in Seattle vs SF for the exact same scenario at present. That's after 2014, SF won the game, I was there.

The one thing that kills Darnold is pressure. The 49ers get no pressure on qb. SF didn't lead wire to wire Sunday night.First pass was a td to the Bears from Purdy. Game not as close as the score suggests? Williams pass was one yard short or they win the game.

SF defense is horrific, who gets more stops in this game?

This is coming from someone that has SF to win conference and SB. I'm very concerned that Seattle could run them out. SF has to be perfect. They have to win this game, and not to mention Seattle are road warriors.

@Killer_B

 Excellent points

how do you get in "covers Rehab"?? 

@Way2Good

@usikbasterd

 how do you get in "covers Rehab"??

Good question....how do you? 

Wow good thread. Lots of good points and takes.

With the turnover thing, the truest way to look at them is to also include punts. A lot of people don't even think about that.

@Raiders22

 Excellent way to explain "sos", in an intelligent way. I've learned over the years to put little to no weight in generic "sos" ratings. It can't be that easy, and honestly it's kind of lazy handicapping.  I'm looking at gamelogs, comparing common opponents, and dissecting boxscores. The more you dig, the more you learn.

The generic sos rating has a lot more weight in college sports where there are hundreds of teams with multiple conferences. 

In the nfl, as shitty or good the teams may appear to us, the reality is that there's only 32 teams. And these pros are essentially the "best of the best".

@Killer_B

 Nice post.

The Bears and Niners had one of the tightest boxscores to date in the nfl. It's no wonder that the game was tied at 7, 14, 21, 28 and 35.

The Bears punted 3 times. The Niners Punted twice. The Niners had 1 turnover. Turnovers were essentially even 3 to 3.

The Bears lost penalties 7 to 5. With one of those penalties being the most important play of the game imo. CJ Garner Johnson was called for hands to the face(a highly questionable judgement call) on the same play that he picked off Brock Purdy. The Niners scored 2 plays later.

Crazy game to watch

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6934738/2026/01/02/austen-pleasants-49ers-left-tackle-trent-williams/