Niners vs Shithawks for are the NFC marbles. Deep Dive write up leaving no stones unturned for old times sake.

The Case for the San Francisco 49ers: Why Seattle's Dream Season Ends Saturday

Let me tell you something about Brock Purdy that the sharp money and the line movement crowd don't seem to understand: this man is playing on a completely different level right now, and there is no defense in the NFL that can stop him when he's locked in like this.

Yes, the Seahawks are favored. Yes, the line has moved from 49ers minus-1.5 all the way to pick'em and even Seahawks minus-1 in some spots. Yes, Seattle has the number one defense in DVOA and everyone is falling all over themselves to talk about Mike Macdonald's scheme. I get it. I understand why people are picking Seattle.

But those people are about to be very wrong on Saturday night at Levi's Stadium.

The Purdy Problem Seattle Cannot Solve

Let's start with the obvious. Brock Purdy has accounted for ten touchdowns in his last two games alone. Think about that for a second. Ten touchdowns. Two games.

Against the Bears on Sunday night, he threw three touchdowns and ran for two more in a 42-38 shootout that wasn't really as close as the final score suggests. The 49ers led that game wire to wire and only gave up garbage time points when the outcome was already decided. The week before that against the Colts, Purdy threw for five touchdowns in a 48-27 demolition job on Monday Night Football.

Since the bye week, Purdy is averaging 297.7 passing yards per game with 15 total touchdowns in just three starts. He has a passer rating over 102 on the season with 17 passing touchdowns and just 8 interceptions. The turf toe that was bothering him earlier in the year is clearly behind him. He's moving in the pocket like he did in 2023 when he was the best quarterback in football. He's extending plays, scrambling for first downs, and making throws that only a handful of guys in the league can even attempt.

Kyle Shanahan called him "an assassin" after the Bears game. That's not coach speak. That's a man watching his quarterback operate at an elite level and running out of words to describe it.

Remember Week 1? The 49ers went into Seattle with McCaffrey listed as questionable due to a calf injury he suffered in practice. Everyone was nervous. Everyone was wondering if he'd be limited.

He went out and put up 142 combined yards anyway. That's 22 carries for 69 yards and 9 catches for 73 more. He wasn't even fully healthy and he was still the best player on the field.

Now he's rolling. He just had a season-high 140 rushing yards against the Bears without George Kittle even playing. He's got 10 rushing touchdowns on the year. His yards from scrimmage numbers are elite. And unlike Week 1, there's no injury concern this time around. He's fresh, he's healthy, and he's playing his best football of the season.

The Seahawks remember what McCaffrey did to them the first time these teams met. They have to account for him on every single snap, whether he's running between the tackles or releasing into the flat. That opens up everything else Shanahan wants to do.

The Seattle Seahawks Are Frauds

Yeah, I said it. Frauds.

Seattle has the number one defense in DVOA. They've got 44 sacks on the year, which is impressive. They only allow 18.6 points per game, second best in the league. On paper, this is an elite unit.

But let's look at who they've been playing.

Last week against the Panthers, Bryce Young threw for 54 yards. Fifty-four. The Panthers are one of the worst teams in football. The week before that, they shut out the Vikings 26-0, which looks great until you remember that was the same Vikings team that was imploding down the stretch.

When Seattle has faced actual NFL offenses with functional quarterbacks, the results have been different. Tampa Bay put up 38 points on them in Week 5. The Rams pushed them to overtime. Good offenses can move the ball on this defense.

And here's the thing about Seattle's defense that the DVOA nerds don't talk about: they rank 27th in defensive variance. That means they're inconsistent. They'll dominate one week and get carved up the next. It's boom or bust with these guys.

Against a Purdy who's playing like a top-three quarterback in football right now? With McCaffrey healthy and Shanahan calling plays? Good luck.

Sam Darnold has had a nice year. I'll give him that. He's got 25 touchdown passes, almost 4,000 yards, and the Seahawks are 13-3. Credit where credit is due.

But let's not pretend like Darnold is suddenly a different player than the guy who has 13 interceptions this year. This is a quarterback who threw four picks in a single game against the Rams earlier this season. This is a guy who has been on five different teams: Jets, Panthers, 49ers, Vikings, Seahawks. Five. There's a reason he keeps bouncing around.

And here's what nobody is talking about: Darnold already lost to this exact 49ers team in a game that mattered this year. Week 1. Seattle was at home. The Seahawks had the lead late. And what happened?

Nick Bosa drove right tackle Abraham Lucas back into Darnold's chest and stripped the ball. Game over. 49ers win 17-13.

Now yes, Bosa tore his ACL in Week 3 against Arizona and he's done for the year. That's a massive loss. But the memory of that strip-sack is still fresh. Darnold knows what happened. He knows he had a chance to win the game and he coughed it up. That kind of thing sticks with you.

When the game is on the line Saturday night, when Seattle needs a drive, when the pressure is at its highest, which version of Darnold are we going to get? The one who threw five touchdowns against Atlanta, or the one who threw four interceptions against the Rams?

History suggests we're going to get the latter.

Levi's Stadium Will Be Rocking

This game is for the NFC West title. It's for the number one seed. It's for a first-round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The winner goes into the postseason as the best team in the conference. The loser becomes a wild card team that has to win three road games to get to the Super Bowl.

For Seattle, this is their first realistic shot at the number one seed since 2014, back when Russell Wilson and the Legion of Boom were running the conference. That's over a decade of waiting. The pressure on them is immense.

For San Francisco, this is just another big game in a stretch of big games. The 49ers have been to four NFC Championship games in the last six years. They played in the Super Bowl just two years ago. They know what it takes to win in January. This team has been here before.

Mike Macdonald is in just his second year as a head coach. He went 10-7 last season and missed the playoffs entirely. Now he's trying to beat a Kyle Shanahan team that has won at the highest level for the better part of a decade. That's a tough ask for a young coach in only his 30th career game.

Levi's Stadium is going to be absolutely electric Saturday night. The 49ers faithful know what's at stake. They know that a win puts San Francisco in prime position for another Super Bowl run. They're going to be loud, they're going to be hostile, and they're going to make life miserable for Darnold and that Seattle offense.

The sharp money likes Seattle. The line movement likes Seattle. But the football likes San Francisco.

Purdy is playing out of his mind. McCaffrey is healthy and dominant. Shanahan is one of the best play-callers in football. The defense, even without Bosa and with Fred Warner nursing an ankle injury, has been good enough to win.

Seattle is a good team. I'm not denying that. But the 49ers are a great team playing their best football at exactly the right time. They're going to prove that Saturday night.

The Pick: 49ers +1 | 49ers Moneyline | Lean Over 49.5

San Francisco wins 31-24 and secures the number one seed.

Gimme Niners ML +100

The Niners defense gives up an avg. of 338.9 yards per game. That's kinda  

It doesn't really matter when you have the best offense in the NFL by far.

I think it matters. Defense wins championships my friend.

This isn't the Super Bowl. Its the last game of the regular season.

Purdy Is the best quarterback in the NFL right now.

Defense wins championships. Too bad Warner and bosa are hurt. 

Cowboys and Rams offense rank higher as do their number of offensive TDs   Great cut and paste job as usual though

Most recently Purdy has faced:

28th ranked defense - Chicago Bears

24th ranked defense - Indy

22nd ranked defense - Tennessee

Philip Rivers (or my grandmother) could put up numbers against these sorry assed defenses.

Niners fan here one question I feel whoever wins the turnover battle will win this game ...can our Defense force Darnold into causing turnovers? We will need to dial up pressure somehow

The same indy defense that the seahawks couldn't get a single touchdown against

Ask the 2019 San Francisco 49ers defense 

Smh Jimmy lol 

What you forgot to mention is that it will be raining and Purdy's baby hands do not like it. I definitely will be betting he throws a pick. I'll be there and will be on Seatle

Most unbiased thread on this forum. Your profile picture doesn’t help at all. Seattle by 13. 

Jimmy my friend, you wrote this with all the biases the in world of logic and psychology has ever discovered. I am sorry to point it out to you bud.

Niners by 30

@JimmyGape

You are becoming worse than Cowboy fans. In your warped mind the 49er's can do no wrong and everyone else has issues.

Much like your betting history. When you are right, you make sure everyone is aware of your winnings. But when you lose (and you definitely lose) there is some garbage excuse why you loss. Not because you picked the wrong side. Its someone else's fault. 

You must be a hit at parties.

Jimmy enjoys pulling out a podium and screaming his opinions and if you disagree your a hater or a mush, or a loser, etc. You can't have a mature conversation with a man child.

This guy rides his team always so this is an unbalanced perspective. Once he said Purdy was the best qb in the NFL and the 9ers had the best offense in the NFL all credibility went out the window. Purdy will be exposed next week. 

have u ever bet against the 9ers don’t recall ever seeing it