I am going to start this thread earlier in the week than normal for discussion and thoughts around line movements, and selections... All selections and line movement speculation are preliminary and open to change - but I will post here final thoughts as well as discuss throughout the next few days.
Vegas / Bengals: Move earlier today from the opener of 6 down a point or a half point. My guess is that you wont see 6 again, and is likely to end near 4.5
I see this as a very even game where both passing attacks have advantages. These teams are almost mirror images in adjusted statistics - with both rushing attacks having a disadvantage and both passing attacks having almost exactly similar advantages. One of the keys for me is the offensive line of Cincy is sometimes.... Offensive. Burrow is incredible at doing well under pressure, but if the Bengals cant run and they are getting to Burrow - I will take my chances with the 5 points. Still waiting to make a definitive wager but my initial thoughts are Raiders +5ish for around 2 units.
Pats / Bills: Sitting right on 4 but I do think it is much more likely that this goes up to potentially close to 6 than moves down. If you like the Bills, which I do, I think this is the best number we will see (barring news).
I like the Bills here a lot. They seem to have worked out their midseason problems and are peaking at the right time. There are 2 teams whose adjusted stats really dont reflect results.... And that is the Bills and Niners. Both should be way better than their record. The Bills are first in the NFL in drive efficiency, and are towards the top in almost every offensive and defensive category. The first game was more of a weather fluke than anything else when the Pats only threw 3 times - I just cant see the Pats hanging early and they are not built to be a dropback throwing team right now. Bills get out early and roll the Pats. I am thinking this is like a 4 unit game for me on Bills -4.
Eagles / Bucs: 9ish now, will float between 8.5 and 9.5 until kickoff
Bucs are banged up, but getting some key guys back for this matchup. Their offense is sneaky good - nobody is really talking about them as in the top 3 on offense in a lot of key categories. But you can run on the Bucs - and I am sure the Eagles will try to slow the game down - and run successfully. I dont like laying 9 in a game where if the Eagles can have success on the ground - they should lose but still either cover by a score or lose the cover by a score. I just have a feeling this is the game that comes down to one score with the spread - and I will likely not be on this in a major way. Wait and see.