NFL Wildcard Weekend Playoffs....

I am going to start this thread earlier in the week than normal for discussion and thoughts around line movements, and selections...  All selections and line movement speculation are preliminary and open to change - but I will post here final thoughts as well as discuss throughout the next few days.

Vegas / Bengals:  Move earlier today from the opener of 6 down a point or a half point.  My guess is that you wont see 6 again, and is likely to end near 4.5

I see this as a very even game where both passing attacks have advantages.  These teams are almost mirror images in adjusted statistics - with both rushing attacks having a disadvantage and both passing attacks having almost exactly similar advantages.  One of the keys for me is the offensive line of Cincy is sometimes....  Offensive.  Burrow is incredible at doing well under pressure, but if the Bengals cant run and they are getting to Burrow - I will take my chances with the 5 points.  Still waiting to make a definitive wager but my initial thoughts are Raiders +5ish for around 2 units.

Pats / Bills:  Sitting right on 4 but I do think it is much more likely that this goes up to potentially close to 6 than moves down.  If you like the Bills, which I do, I think this is the best number we will see (barring news).

I like the Bills here a lot.  They seem to have worked out their midseason problems and are peaking at the right time.  There are 2 teams whose adjusted stats really dont reflect results.... And that is the Bills and Niners.  Both should be way better than their record.  The Bills are first in the NFL in drive efficiency, and are towards the top in almost every offensive and defensive category.  The first game was more of a weather fluke than anything else when the Pats only threw 3 times - I just cant see the Pats hanging early and they are not built to be a dropback throwing team right now.  Bills get out early and roll the Pats.  I am thinking this is like a 4 unit game for me on Bills -4.

Eagles / Bucs:  9ish now, will float between 8.5 and 9.5 until kickoff

Bucs are banged up, but getting some key guys back for this matchup.  Their offense is sneaky good - nobody is really talking about them as in the top 3 on offense in a lot of key categories.  But you can run on the Bucs - and I am sure the Eagles will try to slow the game down - and run successfully.  I dont like laying 9 in a game where if the Eagles can have success on the ground - they should lose but still either cover by a score or lose the cover by a score.  I just have a feeling this is the game that comes down to one score with the spread - and I will likely not be on this in a major way.  Wait and see.

Niners / Cowboys:  I expect this will remain an expensive 3 or a cheap 3.5 all week - probably more likely to move to the favorite than the dog.

As I have already made known - I have the 49ers in a 43-1 future - because I do think they are one of the few teams that can go on a 4 game run now.  They are statistically off the charts - but it all comes down to one thing.... Garrapolo turnovers, missed throws, and sacks.  It is all about limiting his mistakes, and I am banking on the coaching staff realizing this at this point and designing a gameplan that allows the Niners to not get behind by more than a score - shortening the game - and playing great defense.  The Niners weakness is in the secondary - so my fear is good Dak shows up and Josh Norman and company are getting beat downfield - but I have to take my chances with a team that is peaking at the right time.  Totally PKem game for me - even in Dallas.  I will be on the spread and ML for about 4 units total

Steelers / Chiefs:  Opened at 13.5, down a point or so - might actually continue to come down to maybe 11.5 or so

There is only one side here to bet, and that is the Chiefs.  The Steelers have very little pathways to winning here, and their specific problem is they cannot stop the run against a team and a coach that will design running plays to confuse and demoralize the Steelers defense.  I dont see the Chiefs punting very often here.  And the Steelers just wont be able to match points.  I hate laying double digits anytime in the NFL, rarely do it - cant remember doing it in a playoff game - but I will here.  Probably in the range of 2 units or maybe a little less.

Cards / Rams: -3.5 off of -4, this seems like the number it will stay until kickoff

Mirror image teams with one who is 8-1 on the road, and the other 5-3 at home.  There is no home field advantage when the Rams play - their players were caught on open mics wondering why there were so many SF fans there last week.  Rams secondary is banged up and the Cards should be able to take advantage - but to be fair the Cards offense is either on or off - very rarely in between so who knows.  Both of these teams are schitzophrenic, hard to predict - and very similar.  Give me points and ML in what should be not necessarily a close game - but a 50/50 winner.  Cards +3.5 and ML for about 2 units or so

GL all - love to discuss.

Like them all, but its supposed to be freezing in Cincy on Saturday.....not sure I can back Carr if Hunter Renfrow is his top option with Waller not 100%....banking on the Vegas run game and defense doesn't sound appealing....

Van

@vanzack

 Good write ups. 

The discrepancy in weighted dvoa between the Steelers and Chiefs is alarming. 

Good Luck Van

Dammmm, love everything wrote, and agree on alot of this....The only one that i dont agree on is the Cards.  The Rams re-focused their run game late in the season by leaning on the physical Sony Michel and now surprisingly activating Cam Akers..I feel this 1,2 punch will be enough to open up the field for Stafford, and let him pick that secondary apart!

So your Dallas write up is confusing. Are you leaning Dallas or the 49rs ?

Agree on all, except I lean Bengals.  I like the over more in that game though. There are so many people new to sportbetting, and even some people that should know better, IMO, that will overreact to the cold weather in the forecast and hammer down the under.  Without a lot of wind or precipitation, cold has no influence on scoring. 

Leaning the Bills over for the same reason, but Bills and Pats are two of the better defenses in the NFL

Disagree with your KC/Pitt-"ATS-assessment"

I will, GLADLY-"take", the generous 12.5 points!!!

I understand the logic....  But not enough for me to get off of the +5.  At +3?  Im sitting out.

GL Train.

Yeah....  I do kind of agree with this.  So why dont they run more?  In the pivotal game last week against SF - they threw 32 times and ran 27.... IN A GAME THEY WERE UP 17-0 and leading most of the game.

I just believe McVey is caught up in his own hype - and the fact they brought in all of the passing game weapons - that they believe they can throw their way to success.

I just see this as an even game - and I am fine taking 3.5 in a game I think is 50/50.

GL

Didn't think it was confusing.... But I am on the Niners - and not a lean.

7-2 in their last 9, playing in the toughest division in football.

Dallas is 6-0 vs Eagles, Giants, WFT, 6-5 against the rest.

GL

Sharp weather comments.  Wind is the key.

Big winds in Tampa predicted for Sunday.  Who knows - it is 4 days away - but 30 MPH winds and thunderstorms cant mean good things for TB12.

Please expand on this.

I would like to hear why you are taking these points.

Thanks.

Barring any covid issues the BILLS are the healthiest they've been all season ..The o line has found its best starting 5 and now has quality depth if necessary .. ...Allen and the offense has gained valuable experience playing in the cold the last 2 weeks at hone ..

I'll be on them ML and over their team total , but I think there is a food chance they win by double digits ( again) ..

Van.....Not your cup of tea I know, but tell me a couple guys who you think I should play on DK that will have big games. Dont think I can play any NE guys....the Raiders are super iffy....Eagles all over the place....Dallas has several guys but Dak spreads it out....Steelers tough to have confidence in...Rams/Zona maybes...TB not sure which receiver steps up beside Evans...SF running backs are all dinged up and Garapallo is scary ..

@TRAIN69

 Sounds like your lineup will be entirely empty

Bills/Pats is an interesting game. Those lasers Allen will be throwing is gonna hurt like hell LOL. 

Interesting weather report on Tampa. Brady used to be great in the elements in rain and snow. Pats dominate in adverse weather. Wind will def have an effect on their passing game. Can Hurts play in this weather tho? Turnovers, fumbles will be key in this one. Bucs still have an opportunistic def. Will Brady turnover a few of his own? 

Outstanding post/thread, Van. We're mostly in agreement here. I've already bet on the Bills, 9ers, Cards. My only disagreement is that I lean Cincinnati. Are you concerned the Raiders just played a 5 quarter dog-fight with their rival 5.5 days before this game is played. Then they have to fly across the country to play in the freezing cold weather at, what would be about 10:30am, West Coast time. Feels like a bad spot. The reason I'm hesitating to bet Cincy though is that the Raiders played a more difficult SOS (strength of schedule) and dogs with a better SOS in the wild card round have historically done incredibly well (mid 60% I believe, sorry I don't have the stat on hand). 

@vanzack

@vanzack

 "McVey is caught up in his own hype" is spot on....Buts its win or go home now, hes needs to control the clock and the game with the run, let Matt do the rest...One of us will be right!!

@Digitalkarma

 Wouldn't the Eagles #1 run offense be an asset if teams can't throw?

My opening lines Sunday night ne + 4.5 eagles + 9.5 cards + 4.5 pit + 12.5 raiders + 6.5 niners + 3