NFL Wildcard Weekend Playoffs....

@HockeyNight11

 GL

I dont want this to get drowned out in all of the posts here....

This is a very good 5 minutes on the Raiders / Bengals....

https://twitter.com/VSiNLive/status/1481395564470325256?s=20

@vanzack

Doesn’t Dallas rank #1 in many offensive categories all while having the 3rd highest SOS. 

#1 in YARDS

#1 in TOUCHDOWNS

#1 in TOTAL POINTS

#1 in PPG AVG

Also a better 1st, 3rd, and 4th down % than the 49ers.

Did I mention they finished first in DVOA? And you claim you’re a stats guy, did all this fly over your head while capping your “home” team. 

I dont have a "home" team.

All of those things definitely didnt fly over my head - because you have a lot of your facts wrong.  Certainly not the part where you say the Cowboys had 3rd highest SOS - they actually are much closer to the 3rd lowest SOS (About 25th in the NFL, depending on how you calculate this - nobody would say 3rd except for you).

49ers are FIRST in the NFL on 1st down, Cowboys about 10th.  49ers better on 3rd and 4th also.

GL with your Cowboys bet.  I assure you, there is likely very little statistically that you could bring to my attention that I havent already considered.  I see this as close to an even game - maybe a slight advantage to SF to win outright.  Would I be shocked if the Cowboys win and cover?  Of course not.  I dont deal in those absolutes like you seem to.

And if you dont believe me about the lack of the Rams home field advantage - take it from the wife of Matt Stafford!!

She is pleading with rams fans not to sell their tickets to Cards fans.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CYpM_1WLMNz/?utm_source=ig_embed&ig_rid=f40ba852-c295-45e1-83cc-2e5acc838a6e

good info, thanks

What he didn’t mention is that Raiders play more man coverage than anyone else, and Burrow does a pretty good job at beating it

Much conversation about Raiders getting pressure with only 4 guys, but the way to neutralize that is give the ball to Mixon

Bengals had approximately 4:3 rushing to passing ratio in last meeting, if they do that again they should win + cover

@vanzack

Where are you seeing this? All seriousness.

Cowboys:

3rd down: 43.4%

4th down: 58.3%

49ers:

3rd down: 40.2%

4th down: 50%

Above stats were pulled from 3 different sites. All the same. 

Lets start with SOS.  Are they 3rd, or closer to 25th??

(the reason I am avoiding your question is that it is nebulous in what your stats are saying.  I use only adjusted (for SOS) stats.  I also quoted offensive success rates on those downs.  Maybe you are looking at something different)

The back and forth discussions here are great. Very smart angles I’m seeing here. IMO Cincinnati is the easiest play on the board in my 40 years of sports betting when a team like the Raiders has a physical and mentally draining win to qualify and then goes on the road to face a team that matches up well against them loses BIG. I see a similar result here to the regular season beating. I don’t overthink it. Same as I see the Pitt/KC matchup. Those are my 2 Large plays but Cincy is the safer one. JMO

It seems like the Bengals / Raiders game is getting a lot of attention here at covers.  It is not my favorite game - not even close.  But...

You mention the first game...

It actually was a very close game both statistically and score until about 7 mins left in the 4th qtr when there were 2 raiders Turnovers that led to Bengals TDs.  All part of the game - and the Bengals did end up winning big - so I am not trying to discount that - only pointing out it was a game where the score might not be indicative of the closeness.

GL this weekend.

@vanzack

 https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

@UnrankedChamp

 There's a discrepancy between Team Rankings sos rating and others.

Sagarin has Dallas #25

Power Rankings Guru #20

EDS #31

@vanzack 

49ers +148 ML..... that's what I'm cappin' a valued dog play.

have a pro$perou$ NFL Playoff weekend

my best to you always, take care my brother

thats not exactly correct

It’s true, both teams had very similar total yardage for the game

but when the raiders started giving the ball away towards the end of the game, Bengals had run almost twice as many plays, and had almost double time of possession.

And, the season turnover differential is Bengals even, Raiders -9…..so while anything can happen, it’s more likely that Bengals win the turnover battle…..again

@undermysac

Ahh ok, fair enough. Thanks sac. 

Not sure why this is different than every other site.  But other than the three given by undermysac above....  There are several others.

** and actually at powerrankingsguru - you have to scroll down on the site to the second chart which is teams played (because they have played the whole season) and they are 26th.

@UnrankedChamp

 How's it goin' Nice to see you back...picked up on you in bb's thread

have a solid playoffs my brother

@sports_Network

 Same to you!

@Biscuit

 The fact is Cincinnati does matchup well and the intangibles are also in their favor. They beat them in Vegas so they more than likely will beat the Raiders at home. 31-21 type game IMO Also I’m a Bears fan and we played them both. We got a little Lucky to beat Cincy but beat the Raiders start to finish. That also sticks in my head.

@vanzack

It interests me that 90% of the comments are about the Raiders / Bengals or 49ers / Cowboys.

@Degenbeter

 That’s sorta funny

if I had told you last August that 3 of the Bears wins would be @seattle and vs two playoff teams, you woulda thought they were gonna have a good season

anyway GL for the future

Heard this on TV last 3 years wild card weekend dogs are 11-3