Posted:
#76
Great Call LC on the ML...don' t need to give points away.....
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*** NFL Wildcard Weekend ***
Posted:
#77
What are the chances it happens again?
Seahawks cover 2.5 ... Dallas wins...
LAC covers 2.5 .... Balty wins???
I really liked LAC here, but the Chargers HC scares the ____ out of me. How many points can Harbaugh out coach Lynn out of?
I'm guessing a few points here, just like Carroll did in Dallas.
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Posted:
#78
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:
Too much concern about Lamar Jackson vs the Chargers defense. Lamar isn't being asked to do too much in this offense. Not enough is being discussed about Rivers going up against the Ravens defense. I know it's hard to see Lamar outplay Rivers, but that's exactly what happened a few weeks ago, the defenses these two are facing are important factors.
Jackson 12/22 202 yards 1 TD 0 INT
Rivers 23/37 181 yards 0 TD 2 INT
And again, Harbaugh is very good at self scouting against his own team. I expect he'll have a plan ready for Lynn's adjustments based on last game's film
100% agree that the Ravens arent asking too much of Lamar. My point is that if this game gets condensed and Lamar is FORCED to make the throws, will he be able to? These are the playoffs.....There is no way one can overlook that question because Lamar hasn’t been put in that position especially in a playoff game. As for Rivers, what should he expect? Should he expect that Baltimore will prioritize stoppping the run and that they’ll try to get Rivers off his spot considering he’s just as immobile as Brady? Harbaugh would be dumb to just sit back and not pressure Rivers....I wonder if Mayfield and the Browns will be the tape Rivers and the Chargers watch? What does Harbaugh change from last week to this week? Could he blitz more knowing Rivers isn’t as athletic as Mayfield? I would. What I mentioned about the Ravens though going up against Rivers.....Those will be things the Ravens will try to do but as I mentioned, will LA use the short passes as substitutes in the run game much like the Pats do against good defenses? That eats clock AND keeps the back end honest. Rivers and Lynn will most likely try to win the time of possession tomorrow to keep their defense on the bench fresh for when Harbaugh uses the run game. Will it work? We’ll see. Could this be the game where Harbaugh looks at part 1 and feels that same approach will suffice? Maybe. The Part 1 gameplan worked pretty well.....We don’t know what Lynn will do tomorrow; a lot like we didn’t know Dougy P would do some of the things he did late in games when it mattered most. I’m just playing devils advocate amigo; can’t wait until tomorrow’s games. All the best bud.
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Posted:
#79
Quote Originally Posted by Dogjimbo:
What are the chances it happens again? Seahawks cover 2.5 ... Dallas wins... LAC covers 2.5 .... Balty wins??? I really liked LAC here, but the Chargers HC scares the ____ out of me. How many points can Harbaugh out coach Lynn out of? I'm guessing a few points here, just like Carroll did in Dallas.
What are the chances it happens again? Seahawks cover 2.5 ... Dallas wins... LAC covers 2.5 .... Balty wins??? I really liked LAC here, but the Chargers HC scares the ____ out of me. How many points can Harbaugh out coach Lynn out of? I'm guessing a few points here, just like Carroll did in Dallas.
These are the games that make you question if we are watching the WWF or NFL, why go for 2, the extra point makes it a FG game, if you fail on 2 pt game is basically over.
Thanks for the picks I should have payed more attention, missed the ML part and gave 2 1/2.
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Posted:
#80
Quote Originally Posted by NYBartender:
you should have got that extra pt bro! Damn. There simply was no way Dallas was winning this one by more than 2. But the ML was a lock. Gotta love the rigged NFL!
Quote Originally Posted by dbever2016:
I think I have no scene it all in sports. Had a 500 dollar parlay Colts +1, Dallas -2... Dallas up 24-14 with 2 min left no time outs still lets Seattle drive the entire way down. Instead of kicking a field goal to get within 3 like any team in the history of football i hae never scene a team loose their kicker to injury so go for the 2 points and get the push...... So gross
Least you got the push. I had Dallas -2 1/2 large. How do you think I feel?I think I have no scene it all in sports. Had a 500 dollar parlay Colts +1, Dallas -2... Dallas up 24-14 with 2 min left no time outs still lets Seattle drive the entire way down. Instead of kicking a field goal to get within 3 like any team in the history of football i hae never scene a team loose their kicker to injury so go for the 2 points and get the push...... So gross
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Posted:
#84
Quote Originally Posted by NYBartender:
Quote Originally Posted by moemoneyman:
Challenge who? Buncha sheeps over here. cowboys will win for me, only because I capped and convinced.
So you're not tailing him ever again but surprisingly are on the same exact bet he posted LOL.Challenge who? Buncha sheeps over here. cowboys will win for me, only because I capped and convinced.
I never take -2.5 is these situations, because I have learned many times in this sport that shit like the ending happens a lot and also the farther extra points as well.
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Posted:
#85
Quote Originally Posted by moemoneyman:
So you're not tailing him ever again but surprisingly are on the same exact bet he posted LOL.
So you're not tailing him ever again but surprisingly are on the same exact bet he posted LOL.
I never take -2.5 is these situations, because I have learned many times in this sport that garbage like the ending happens a lot and also the farther extra points as well.
So true
On a quest to be the very best
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Posted:
#86
Quote Originally Posted by Cardiacsteve:
Quote Originally Posted by Dogjimbo:
What are the chances it happens again? Seahawks cover 2.5 ... Dallas wins... LAC covers 2.5 .... Balty wins??? I really liked LAC here, but the Chargers HC scares the ____ out of me. How many points can Harbaugh out coach Lynn out of? I'm guessing a few points here, just like Carroll did in Dallas.
These are the games that make you question if we are watching the WWF or NFL, why go for 2, the extra point makes it a FG game, if you fail on 2 pt game is basically over. Thanks for the picks I should have payed more attention, missed the ML part and gave 2 1/2.What are the chances it happens again? Seahawks cover 2.5 ... Dallas wins... LAC covers 2.5 .... Balty wins??? I really liked LAC here, but the Chargers HC scares the ____ out of me. How many points can Harbaugh out coach Lynn out of? I'm guessing a few points here, just like Carroll did in Dallas.
Because Janikowski was out of the game, and they had nobody to either kick off or kick extra points.
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Posted:
#88
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:
I'll be brief but for one, it's extremely hard to beat the same team 3 times in one season...
Sorry, that's a fallacy.I'll be brief but for one, it's extremely hard to beat the same team 3 times in one season...
Before any of the three games are played, then yes, I will agree with that. Before any of the three games have been played, assuming the two teams are of equal strength, yes, the chances of the same team winning all three game are just 1 in 8. (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2)
However, after two of the games have been played, even if one team has beaten the other team in both of those games, the other team does not have a "better chance" of winning. In our example, assuming two teams of equal strength, it's still 1/2.
In fact, you can make a case that the team that won both games actually has a better than 50-50 chance of winning, since they seem to have that "team's number" and that they match up well with them.
It is a complete fallacy that it is "extremely hard to beat a team three times in one season / short span of time."
Is it extremely hard for a coin to land on "heads" three times in a row? Before all three flips have been tossed, the answer is yes. (1/8 again.) But after two flips, the answer is no.
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Posted:
#89
Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:
Sorry, that's a fallacy.
Before any of the three games are played, then yes, I will agree with that. Before any of the three games have been played, assuming the two teams are of equal strength, yes, the chances of the same team winning all three game are just 1 in 8. (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2)
However, after two of the games have been played, even if one team has beaten the other team in both of those games, the other team does not have a "better chance" of winning. In our example, assuming two teams of equal strength, it's still 1/2.
In fact, you can make a case that the team that won both games actually has a better than 50-50 chance of winning, since they seem to have that "team's number" and that they match up well with them.
It is a complete fallacy that it is "extremely hard to beat a team three times in one season / short span of time."
Is it extremely hard for a coin to land on "heads" three times in a row? Before all three flips have been tossed, the answer is yes. (1/8 again.) But after two flips, the answer is no.
Sorry, that's a fallacy.
Before any of the three games are played, then yes, I will agree with that. Before any of the three games have been played, assuming the two teams are of equal strength, yes, the chances of the same team winning all three game are just 1 in 8. (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2)
However, after two of the games have been played, even if one team has beaten the other team in both of those games, the other team does not have a "better chance" of winning. In our example, assuming two teams of equal strength, it's still 1/2.
In fact, you can make a case that the team that won both games actually has a better than 50-50 chance of winning, since they seem to have that "team's number" and that they match up well with them.
It is a complete fallacy that it is "extremely hard to beat a team three times in one season / short span of time."
Is it extremely hard for a coin to land on "heads" three times in a row? Before all three flips have been tossed, the answer is yes. (1/8 again.) But after two flips, the answer is no.
Or you can just implement a simple query and see that conference dogs that won the last 2 matchups are 313-630 SU all time.
| SU: | 313-630-0 (-5.24, 33.2%) |
|---|
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Posted:
#92
Quote Originally Posted by thawv:
Quote Originally Posted by Cardiacsteve:
Because Janikowski was out of the game, and they had nobody to either kick off or kick extra points. Quote Originally Posted by Dogjimbo:
What are the chances it happens again? Seahawks cover 2.5 ... Dallas wins... LAC covers 2.5 .... Balty wins??? I really liked LAC here, but the Chargers HC scares the ____ out of me. How many points can Harbaugh out coach Lynn out of? I'm guessing a few points here, just like Carroll did in Dallas.
These are the games that make you question if we are watching the WWF or NFL, why go for 2, the extra point makes it a FG game, if you fail on 2 pt game is basically over. Thanks for the picks I should have payed more attention, missed the ML part and gave 2 1/2.What are the chances it happens again? Seahawks cover 2.5 ... Dallas wins... LAC covers 2.5 .... Balty wins??? I really liked LAC here, but the Chargers HC scares the ____ out of me. How many points can Harbaugh out coach Lynn out of? I'm guessing a few points here, just like Carroll did in Dallas.
Janikowski injury, looked planned giving a scenario making going for 2 look legit, 19yr pro hurt doing the only thing he does
0
Posted:
#94
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:
Or you can just implement a simple query and see that conference dogs that won the last 2 matchups are 313-630 SU all time.
| SU: | 313-630-0 (-5.24, 33.2%) |
|---|
Uhm, excuse me sir but I'd classify that as "very hard," not "extremely hard"
313-630 -> very hard
50-893 -> extremely hard
On a quest to be the very best
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Posted:
#95
Quote Originally Posted by Cardiacsteve:
These are the games that make you question if we are watching the WWF or NFL, why go for 2, the extra point makes it a FG game, if you fail on 2 pt game is basically over. Thanks for the picks I should have payed more attention, missed the ML part and gave 2 1/2. Because Janikowski was out of the game, and they had nobody to either kick off or kick extra points.
These are the games that make you question if we are watching the WWF or NFL, why go for 2, the extra point makes it a FG game, if you fail on 2 pt game is basically over. Thanks for the picks I should have payed more attention, missed the ML part and gave 2 1/2. Because Janikowski was out of the game, and they had nobody to either kick off or kick extra points.
Janikowski injury, looked planned giving a scenario making going for 2 look legit, 19yr pro hurt doing the only thing he does
Would like to point out that if the game was rigged, the Seahawks wouldn't have scored that TD, as that hit the over and all teasers, as well as anyone middling. Vegas lost a ton of money on that.
You also forget that Jank is old and got injured attempting a near 60 yard FG, which very few kickers would even make. He likely got hurt because he is a 19 year vet.
Their chances were abysmal to win whether they made the 2 pointer or not. The end game scenarios show exactly why you should go for 2 nearly all the time. If they recover onside and kick a FG, they win. They don't even have to play OT
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Posted:
#98
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:
Or you can just implement a simple query and see that conference dogs that won the last 2 matchups are 313-630 SU all time.SU:313-630-0 (-5.24, 33.2%)
Or you can just implement a simple query and see that conference dogs that won the last 2 matchups are 313-630 SU all time.SU:313-630-0 (-5.24, 33.2%)
Your data is in error. 313-630?
We are talking about the same team beating the other three times in the same season (Or, I will grant you, in a short period of time.)
There have not been 943 instances where a team played the same team three times in the same season. 943 instances? Sorry, you don't know what you are talking about. It doesn't happen that often.
When it does happen it's it's usually two division opponents who played each other twice during the regular season, and then they face each other again in the playoffs.
It's not rare... but it also doesn't happen every year. The NFL hasn't been around long enough to have this happen 943 times. Your data must include ALL games, which is irrelevant. That's not at all the fallacy that I was addressing.
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Posted:
#99
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:
100% agree that the Ravens arent asking too much of Lamar. My point is that if this game gets condensed and Lamar is FORCED to make the throws, will he be able to? These are the playoffs.....There is no way one can overlook that question because Lamar hasn’t been put in that position especially in a playoff game. As for Rivers, what should he expect? Should he expect that Baltimore will prioritize stoppping the run and that they’ll try to get Rivers off his spot considering he’s just as immobile as Brady? Harbaugh would be dumb to just sit back and not pressure Rivers....I wonder if Mayfield and the Browns will be the tape Rivers and the Chargers watch? What does Harbaugh change from last week to this week? Could he blitz more knowing Rivers isn’t as athletic as Mayfield? I would. What I mentioned about the Ravens though going up against Rivers.....Those will be things the Ravens will try to do but as I mentioned, will LA use the short passes as substitutes in the run game much like the Pats do against good defenses? That eats clock AND keeps the back end honest. Rivers and Lynn will most likely try to win the time of possession tomorrow to keep their defense on the bench fresh for when Harbaugh uses the run game. Will it work? We’ll see. Could this be the game where Harbaugh looks at part 1 and feels that same approach will suffice? Maybe. The Part 1 gameplan worked pretty well.....We don’t know what Lynn will do tomorrow; a lot like we didn’t know Dougy P would do some of the things he did late in games when it mattered most. I’m just playing devils advocate amigo; can’t wait until tomorrow’s games. All the best bud.
SO FAR.....Lynn and his adjustments have been the difference. Also as stated above, the short passes that substitute for runs have really hurt the Ravens. That’s how you beat a great defense. The Ravens look lost on defense and you can thank the ole vet Rivers. PERFECT first half for LA on offense taking what the defense gives them. As for Lamar, Lamar hasnt made the throws that LA is forcing him to make. Down 12....I wouldn’t be surprised if Flacco comes in at some point especially if LA extends their lead. Whole other half to play but LA has set themselves up well here.....Gonna be an interesting second half.
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