NFL WEEK 8......................................

SEASON TO DATE.........................26-14

Steeler defense did have a bit of regression in def PR and ave per pass att, much as we suspected they might, but when push came to shove they rose and got the job done keeping the lions out of the end zone which likely gives them a regression in YARDS PER PT.

The off played much better with ave per pass but about the same in QBPR, Big Ben tosses another int.

Texans off tackle brown said after the game, there was alot of emotion going into this game we played with a sense unity.

We played for each other and screw everything else.

Texans played what might be the best game of the season.

Listen to what the players tell you about how they think and react to things.

Bronco def backs said after their SB win over the Panthers who every expert thought could not lose the SB, all that talk did was cause us to rally and become more determined to win, they also said when the media talks very good about the Broncos is when they get complacent and let up a bit.

The players tell you how they think , just listen to them and know the difference between actual talk and  trying to setup  an opponent.

We can certainly learn alot from such things.

This is also why some guys will believe games are fixed because they do not understand these things that playout time and time again over history.

They now have a more sustainable level of play but they are still on a very high level but it can be sustainable IF KC is truly a very strong team, tonight might tell us alot about that.

That was a brutal loss, just brutal as I was all set to post Falcons early in the week when I found the line at -4 but then got caught up in doing a few things and left for work.

The line then moved to -4.5 so I decide to wait it out and just did not keep up with it untill end of week.

This shows us how important it is to try and get the best available line, as a few games each year will be affected.

We could easily be 4-1, won 19.5 units but now fall to 3-2, won 9 units, big diff there.

And the beauty of it would have been with Falcons losing to closing line we back them next week with a best bet play and could have scored twice off Atlanta, that'd of been a 1st in this spot for the BF.

Just brutal.....................................

Love TB as BF play.

Im going get my money back.

Really missed your input this season. (I know u r busy with work)

KC got the job done as far as winning and covering the spread but they had a couple of chances to dominate this game.

The option pass down in the red zone was silly, he threw it right to a Bronco player, no clue what he could of been looking at.

I was thinking for sure KC was going up 21-3 but they did bounce back and get the job done.

The team might be due a regression is the Eagles, they covered 5 straight, teams normally do not cover many more then that.

But the thing about the Eagles is they really have not had an extreme type game which is needed for regression, most of their games are played at a high but sustainable level, hence why they covered 5 straight.

But I do have another method that is saying to fade the Eagles this week and after covering 5 straight might be the right play.  Not sure I would take action on that but I would be very careful backing the Eagles this week.

I won the Ohio game -1 and wanted to put the Eagles in at -2.  I don't think Brock is a big upgrade going into Philly.  I also think the defense will feed on him with his lack of decision making in the pocket.

Could I tap into your advise on taking them at -2 Claw, as I just read you feel they are in regression.

Thanks...C

I am not really sure about that, as what regression means is a team failing to cover the closing line, so they could have a regression but still cover the -2.

However, some times when the fav has a regression they do lose the game SU but more then not they pull out a close win, so really not sure about the -2.

I would not judge the game based on Brock as Eagles are due for some bad luck to go against them mathmatically.

Bounce Factor, which tells us when teams are playing on very high or low unsustainable levels are are ready to reverse course ATS.

They play Colts who on the surface look like a easy big win, but perhaps a little complacency will sit in with Steelers who might be a bit full of themselves off this bye.

More then likely Steelers fail to cover one of next 2 games.