We stay the course with the info even with the Texans situation may not appear the best but we stay the course.
Our last pick in contest with Bears +9 , Saints were very close to being a Bounce Factor fade and a Power Ratings Fade as well but just missed qualifying but are deep into regression principles, they should be going down ATS very soon.
If they cover this weekend will take action against them next week, the issue here is the Bears seemed to be getting lucky as well with defensive TD's that are not sustainable either.
If the Bears cover and get lucky again would have to be looking hard to fade them in the right spot with the right line.
60% METHOD............................ 9-8 ATS
Bills -2.5 over Raiders --- 5.5 units
Steelers - 3 over Lions --- 5.5 units
Texans +7 over Seahawks --- 5.5 units
We stay the course with the info even with the Texans situation may not appear the best but we stay the course.
Our last pick in contest with Bears +9 , Saints were very close to being a Bounce Factor fade and a Power Ratings Fade as well but just missed qualifying but are deep into regression principles, they should be going down ATS very soon.
If they cover this weekend will take action against them next week, the issue here is the Bears seemed to be getting lucky as well with defensive TD's that are not sustainable either.
If the Bears cover and get lucky again would have to be looking hard to fade them in the right spot with the right line.
IMO it is better fade bears.... I was leaning saints... But what do i know
BOL claw....ur write up is always much appreciated
I agree the Bears look like a fade team with all those lucky defensive TD's they have been getting which is not sustainable.
The Saints are just a bigger fade right now , they are deeper into regression, although they just barely missed being a bounce factor fade by a thin margin the same principle applies as it is not sustainable playing on such a high level for long periods.
I won't take action on the game but needing a 5th pick in the contest Bears were the only team I could find that at least I have something to hang my hat on picking them over Saints deep into regression.
I do wish Saints were playing any other team then the Bears though, would make it a stronger play and maybe I would take action fading the Saints. But unfortunately they do play the Bears.
Interesting game to see which team regresses . I suspect it will be the Saints.
Quote Originally Posted by midnightprowl:
IMO it is better fade bears.... I was leaning saints... But what do i know
BOL claw....ur write up is always much appreciated
I agree the Bears look like a fade team with all those lucky defensive TD's they have been getting which is not sustainable.
The Saints are just a bigger fade right now , they are deeper into regression, although they just barely missed being a bounce factor fade by a thin margin the same principle applies as it is not sustainable playing on such a high level for long periods.
I won't take action on the game but needing a 5th pick in the contest Bears were the only team I could find that at least I have something to hang my hat on picking them over Saints deep into regression.
I do wish Saints were playing any other team then the Bears though, would make it a stronger play and maybe I would take action fading the Saints. But unfortunately they do play the Bears.
Interesting game to see which team regresses . I suspect it will be the Saints.
Steelers with all their off weapons are not very good on offense, even last season when they made the championship game they barely cracked the top 10 in only 1 meaningful off stat and that by the thinest of margins.
Gets worse this year.
QBPR Steelers rank 22cd at 82.85, dreadful. To many int's, 8 which is 3rd worse in the league next to Browns 17 and Panthers 10.
Yards per point 24th at 17.13 just dreadful
Ave per pass att, hey now they just crack the top 10 at 9th 6.75.
Let's see, Big Ben, Bell and Brown and they are dreadful on off,
But their defense is 1st class all the way making huge improvements to this point anyway.
Ave per pass att, 2cd at 4.27
Def Passer Rating, 4th at 70.97
Yards per point 16th at 15.61
Yards per point is not good mostly coz the off has 10 TO, ranks 20th, which puts them in a bad spot.
Now they play the Lions, I expect some regression with the off coming around and playing better and likely the def falling back a bit at some point.
We'll see if that happens today, def will have a big challenge we'll see if they continue at a high level today and if the off can come around if the def does not play as well.
I suspect they will.
Steelers with all their off weapons are not very good on offense, even last season when they made the championship game they barely cracked the top 10 in only 1 meaningful off stat and that by the thinest of margins.
Gets worse this year.
QBPR Steelers rank 22cd at 82.85, dreadful. To many int's, 8 which is 3rd worse in the league next to Browns 17 and Panthers 10.
Yards per point 24th at 17.13 just dreadful
Ave per pass att, hey now they just crack the top 10 at 9th 6.75.
Let's see, Big Ben, Bell and Brown and they are dreadful on off,
But their defense is 1st class all the way making huge improvements to this point anyway.
Ave per pass att, 2cd at 4.27
Def Passer Rating, 4th at 70.97
Yards per point 16th at 15.61
Yards per point is not good mostly coz the off has 10 TO, ranks 20th, which puts them in a bad spot.
Now they play the Lions, I expect some regression with the off coming around and playing better and likely the def falling back a bit at some point.
We'll see if that happens today, def will have a big challenge we'll see if they continue at a high level today and if the off can come around if the def does not play as well.
Not sure how they perform after the owner, McNair went McRacist.
BOL Claw...
Tough situation there in Houston fort sure, interesting to see how the players respond.
The team looks like it might have a chance for a very good year with the new QB , will the players just throw away a game ?
A game that in the end might be meaningful to having a home playoff game ?
The veteran players with leadership should be able to rally the team with a us against them mentality, play for ourselves, screw everybody else including the owner and when we win, WE take credit for those wins.
That type of determination can take a team fairly far.
Alot may depend on how many big babies they have on the team that will not listen to the veteran leadership.
Quote Originally Posted by Dogjimbo:
I like them all except Houston.
Not sure how they perform after the owner, McNair went McRacist.
BOL Claw...
Tough situation there in Houston fort sure, interesting to see how the players respond.
The team looks like it might have a chance for a very good year with the new QB , will the players just throw away a game ?
A game that in the end might be meaningful to having a home playoff game ?
The veteran players with leadership should be able to rally the team with a us against them mentality, play for ourselves, screw everybody else including the owner and when we win, WE take credit for those wins.
That type of determination can take a team fairly far.
Alot may depend on how many big babies they have on the team that will not listen to the veteran leadership.
Off seems to be down this season with some pretty impressive def out there at this point like the Jags.
QBPR dropped from 87.6 to 86.2, down 1.4
ave per pass dropped from 7.2 to 7, down .2
ave per pass including sacks dropped 6.37 to 6.14, down .23
points scored dropped 22.8 to 21.9, down .9
Off have seen years of improvements , making it far easier to pass the ball, but at this point def seemed to have caught up and might reverse this trend, but it is still early, maybe to early but something to be aware of.
However, Off stats still have a higher predictive rate then def stats, but it may be a little bit tougher to have a good off then other recent years.
Off seems to be down this season with some pretty impressive def out there at this point like the Jags.
QBPR dropped from 87.6 to 86.2, down 1.4
ave per pass dropped from 7.2 to 7, down .2
ave per pass including sacks dropped 6.37 to 6.14, down .23
points scored dropped 22.8 to 21.9, down .9
Off have seen years of improvements , making it far easier to pass the ball, but at this point def seemed to have caught up and might reverse this trend, but it is still early, maybe to early but something to be aware of.
However, Off stats still have a higher predictive rate then def stats, but it may be a little bit tougher to have a good off then other recent years.
Jags were one of our top 3 biggest performers week 1, these teams have a long history of surprise teams each year.
Jags
Bills
Ravens
Were the 3 biggest performers week one according to PR II.
And right now Jags although they are just 3-3 have the 2cd best point margin in the league at 10.4 pts.
Rams another surprise story lead the league at 10.6 pts and these 2 teams are far above the 3rd best Eagles at just over 7 pts and Eagles are the only other team over 7.
Rams/Jags SB matchup pays about 200 to 1, a small $5 play pays $1000.
Might be a bit of a long shot but don't be surprised if one of these teams gets in or very close to the SB.
I seen the Jags rank as high as 2cd in the league in PR's that use advanced meterics. and Rams 4th.
The other info we pointed out week one was how the Pats were shredded in QBPR, still remains after 7 weeks one of the biggest blowouts in QBPR on the season.
And if that was an indication of things to come. At this point The Pats def does not look very good, although they have made some improvements they still rank towards the bottom of the league in key indicators.
Very few teams win the SB with a def passer rating below league ave and those are almost always surprise teams not teams consider amoung the favs, and Pats DPR is way below league ave at this point.
Speaking of the Jags, how bout those Jags !!!
Jags were one of our top 3 biggest performers week 1, these teams have a long history of surprise teams each year.
Jags
Bills
Ravens
Were the 3 biggest performers week one according to PR II.
And right now Jags although they are just 3-3 have the 2cd best point margin in the league at 10.4 pts.
Rams another surprise story lead the league at 10.6 pts and these 2 teams are far above the 3rd best Eagles at just over 7 pts and Eagles are the only other team over 7.
Rams/Jags SB matchup pays about 200 to 1, a small $5 play pays $1000.
Might be a bit of a long shot but don't be surprised if one of these teams gets in or very close to the SB.
I seen the Jags rank as high as 2cd in the league in PR's that use advanced meterics. and Rams 4th.
The other info we pointed out week one was how the Pats were shredded in QBPR, still remains after 7 weeks one of the biggest blowouts in QBPR on the season.
And if that was an indication of things to come. At this point The Pats def does not look very good, although they have made some improvements they still rank towards the bottom of the league in key indicators.
Very few teams win the SB with a def passer rating below league ave and those are almost always surprise teams not teams consider amoung the favs, and Pats DPR is way below league ave at this point.
Super Bowl favs at this point should be KC and Seahawks.
Looking at our, common denominators the year before, which we posted before week one, of the teams stated the best team at this point is Seahawks.
KC did not qualify but we could not eliminate them either, one of these 2 teams if not both could very well be there with a chance in the end.
It is still early and a small sample size to date but many times the eventual SB teams do make themselves known this early in the season it is only a matter of, if we can spot them.
These 2 teams have many of the common denominators of SB teams that we find in regular season play at this point, KC was off to a incredible historic start, if maintained would of put them as one of the best teams in SB era, and we pointed out how they likely would not maintain that level, and since they have fallen back some but still remain a very strong team.
This week we'll see what this team is made off, they should if they are truly SB worthy bounce back very strong.
Best of Luck this week guys.....................
Super Bowl favs at this point should be KC and Seahawks.
Looking at our, common denominators the year before, which we posted before week one, of the teams stated the best team at this point is Seahawks.
KC did not qualify but we could not eliminate them either, one of these 2 teams if not both could very well be there with a chance in the end.
It is still early and a small sample size to date but many times the eventual SB teams do make themselves known this early in the season it is only a matter of, if we can spot them.
These 2 teams have many of the common denominators of SB teams that we find in regular season play at this point, KC was off to a incredible historic start, if maintained would of put them as one of the best teams in SB era, and we pointed out how they likely would not maintain that level, and since they have fallen back some but still remain a very strong team.
This week we'll see what this team is made off, they should if they are truly SB worthy bounce back very strong.
I like your card but little nervous about Houston pick tho, Watson does not looks like a rookie thus far but I think Seattle has an edge on defense and the offense will score at will.
My card
Panthers +1.5 (best bet) not knowing the status on Winslow, but one thing for sure the panthers are mentally tough team.
Falcons -4.5 locked in couple days ago, huge different without OC Kyle, but they still healthy and have talented players to win by DD, expect a big day for Freeman.
I like your card but little nervous about Houston pick tho, Watson does not looks like a rookie thus far but I think Seattle has an edge on defense and the offense will score at will.
My card
Panthers +1.5 (best bet) not knowing the status on Winslow, but one thing for sure the panthers are mentally tough team.
Falcons -4.5 locked in couple days ago, huge different without OC Kyle, but they still healthy and have talented players to win by DD, expect a big day for Freeman.
If u have watched any of the last 3 Bears games , it's impossible to back the Bears today..... they were out played the last 3 weeks badly and by the grace of god they won with Picks to the house , fumbles to the house, kick returns..... The rookie threw approx. 5 passes last week and won despite Carolina tripling the offensive output , there is zero chance that offense can hang with Bree's in the dome, the Bears defense has played above their head 3 weeks in a row, they will need 24-27 to win against the spread today, Bree's is having another 5k yard season, The Saints roll today, just don't see it any other way today, especially with an underrated defense, just can't see it.
If u have watched any of the last 3 Bears games , it's impossible to back the Bears today..... they were out played the last 3 weeks badly and by the grace of god they won with Picks to the house , fumbles to the house, kick returns..... The rookie threw approx. 5 passes last week and won despite Carolina tripling the offensive output , there is zero chance that offense can hang with Bree's in the dome, the Bears defense has played above their head 3 weeks in a row, they will need 24-27 to win against the spread today, Bree's is having another 5k yard season, The Saints roll today, just don't see it any other way today, especially with an underrated defense, just can't see it.
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