NFL WEEK 6...........................................2023

Another great week.  Congratulations.

Go NYG.

Brutal loss on Pats. Friggin safety but after Parker drops a long pass hit him right in the hands.

Brutal friggin way to lose.

Should of come into the Giants game 2-0 with a chance for 3-0.

Yes, I saw a late score (17-19) and thought NE had covered.  That WAS a tough loss.

I had CAR +14.  I saw the early score (CAR 14, MIA 0) and I immediately banked that one in my brain.

mac Jones is now 0-12 as a dog 

Zac Wilson is now 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS at home with +7 or more, it was +7 a few days ago

Mac Jones

I saw that Panthers score and thought the same, Panthers would cover the +14.

yes, terrible, but now that all this info is coming out on Jones, feels like Pats hit rock-bottom and could be a good play coming up as unlikely as that might seem 

 ....................................

Week --- 2-1 ATS, won .9 units

season --- 14-7-1, won 7.2 units

Every year your betting ways are profitable. 

Congrats and good luck moving forward 

@theclaw

 Great job, how about them Giants 

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Had Giants got a score at end of half they just might have won SU

They really screwed that up.

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Don't see many plays next week.

Pats become a BF play on team and BF has been rolling.

Dog if you are out there can you run a team off 4 SU wins by 14 pts or more.

I seem to remember something along these lines last season. I thought it'd be a good spot to fade and it was.

Agree with the Mac Jones assessment, catching 9 at home vs a beat up Bills squad who shouldve lost to Gmen.  I believe this is the most points Mac has been given to date

That's interesting because that would be more evidence Pats hit rock-bottom. And they are getting the points at home not on the road. Some guys I watch on you tube who were also on the Pats last week and also like to use regression are now saying Pats are the right play this week but they may pass because Jones looks cursed. If these guy who use regression are now jumping off the Pats that clearly be more evidence Pats hit rock-bottom.

They were against Vikings last season quite a bit but then decided not to go against them in playoffs and bingo finally Vikings lost in their 1st playoff game. And they were saying similar things about the Vikings as they are now saying about the Pats only in reverse since Vikes were winning.

I'm on the Pats for at least the next 2 weeks if they fail to cover this week.

Just looked it up on this site. Jones 6-15 as a dog in 2 seasons and this season. The 6 wins was 4 his 1st year and 2 more, one at start of oct his 2cd year and the other middle of oct his 2cd year, lost every time since. 0-11. 

Only been over a 6 pt dog twice, last game of last season +8 VS Bills lost by 12 and +10 VS Packers lost by 3 in OT. Oct game his 2cd year. 1-1 ATS over 6 pt dog.

Jones came in off Pats incredible success so it's not like he would be getting many pts as a dog because Belichick is still there as other very good players so maybe the lines are now starting to catch up to the Reality of who the Pats are without Brady. And remember, Jones did well his rookie year, team made the playoffs with Belichick considered all-time great coach so it's possible he was nothing more then the product of all that and the lines now are finally catching up to reality that it was Brady not Belichick.

I wonder how much better the Patriots would be even with average play at QB? Seems like his confidence has taken a huge hit and I don't know if he gets that back.

Rather than provide you the total answer, I will encourage you to get your feet wet at Killer Sports and run this simple query for yourself.

Go to Killer Sports and click on "NFL" in the upper center and then click on "SQDL Query" in the upper right.  You will now have the option to check any team you desire, and by altering the season you can go back in time to check out more.

Don't do that now; instead clear the field and enter "p:margin > 13.5" to check past query results (QRs) and current matchups with that particular parameter.  The QRs show 4 teams - JAX, DET, LAR and MIA which you can easily confirm.  Just add "and pp:margin > 13.5" to go back one more game, etc.

If done correctly, the average ats margin is a tiny -0.08 for those 43 games.  That certainly is NOT actionable.  I will let you post all of the SU, ATS and O/U QRs to confirm that you wrote the correct query.

Have fun.

@theclaw

 I went back to just 2017 old school checking teams scores on espy, not too hard to look for 4 wins in a row just time consuming

Just AFC for now, and only 3 AFC teams achieved this 4 straight games of 14+ point wins, but here's the breakdown: 

'21 W6 Buff -6 RF = Lost SU

'21 W13 NE +3 RD = ML DOG....only dog so far in this situation

'19 W4 NE -7 RF = SU Win ATS Loss

'19 W9 NE -3 RF = Lost SU

'19 W13 BAL -6 HF = SU Win ATS Loss... noted: W12 qualifies but with a bye week in play so that was left out(14-2 Ravens)

'17 W14 NE -10.5 RF = Lost SU

lines/research taken from oddsshark, RF=road fav etc... W=week

OK, now NFC since 2017...only two teams:

'20 W13 NO -3 RF = Win ATS

'17 W13 PHI -3.5 RF = Lost SU....bye week involved

I guess you have to include the bye week situations, there are so few times this has happened.  that week 12 with ravens was a road fav blowout in LA 45-6.

take this info and use it or lose it but what I see is 9 times this happened in last 6 years, 7 times it was a Road FAV.  Linemakers set these games lines 7 out of 9 with a road fav, Brady had 3, Lamar went 14-2 that year, Josh Allen went 11-6 in '21....Jones rookie year.  NO still had Brees(and Hill) and 17 Eggles was Wentz(13-3) 

You have to bet this game, either side make it more interesting than the numbers

p:margin > 13 and pp:margin > 13 and ppp:margin > 13 and pppp:margin > 13

Applies to DETROIT

No PLAY (19-23-1)