NFL Week 5 Ponderings

I went 2-0 ATS for +6 units last week (YTD 4-4 ATS -2.3 units), but man, I sure left some meat on the bone. The Patriots and 49ers were both on my radar but injuries kept me from pulling the trigger on both. Oh well, on to Week Five. Here are the current lines and comments with the home teams in CAPS.

 Thursday, Oct. 8th

COWBOYS -8 Buccaneers - Tampa still won't have Baker Mayfield behind center, and there's a big dropoff to rookie Jalon Daniels, who's making his first road start on a short week. All Pro CB Antoine Winfield also won't be making the trip, leaving a shorthanded Bucs secondary to face WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Maybe Bucky Irving can get something going against a Dallas defense that's allowing 150.3 rushing yards a game (4.8 YPR), but this feels like a double digit Cowboys win. On the other hand, NFL favorites of over seven points are just 3-7 ATS so far this year. Take away games involving the Dolphins and it drops to 1-6 ATS. I'm considering the 'Boys as a survivor pick, but otherwise I'm leaving this game alone. 

Sunday, Oct. 11th - London game

Jaguars -7' Eagles - Philly's injury woes got even worse last Sunday when Saquon Barkley left with a bad hammy. He's week to week. Add in All Pro RT Lane Johnson's sudden retirement and the Eagles are a trainwreck right now, and they weren't playing THAT great to begin with. The Jaguars are playing as well as any team in the AFC and should coast here in their home away from home across the pond. Only thing stopping me from pounding them is that 1-6 ATS stat I noted above. That, and my 0-5 ATS record in playing favorites this year, whether it be college or pro. There's a reason I'm mostly a dog bettor. The Jags are another team I'm considering for a survivor pick but that's it.

More later.

Sunday early games

Bengals -6' DOLPHINS - Cincinnati has dropped two straight after a 2-0 start. Last week they had 114 more yards than Jacksonville in a 22-17 loss, but were held to just 23 yards on the ground (1.5 YPR). They lost more than just a game as star WRs Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were both injured and are listed as questionable. Miami is 0-4 SU, and would be 0-4 ATS had Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson opted to score a meaningless TD at the end of a 15-10 Minnesota victory. The Dolphins have yet to score more than 13 points in any game this season.

PATRIOTS -3' Raiders - Las Vegas suffered their first loss of the season, a 30-27 setback to Kansas City, but they gave the Chiefs all they could handle, and might of come out on top if not for a fumbled kickoff return late in the game. They left it all on the field last week and may come into this game a little flat, especially with the early start time. New England rebounded from their debacle in Jacksonville with a 29-26 road upset over the Bills. Drake Maye played a lot better, passing for 269 yards and three TDs and scrambling for 54. I've undervalued the Raiders over the last three games, but while they're 4-0 ATS I'm leaning Pats in this one. Feels like a 24-17 kinda game.

Vikings -1' SAINTS - Undefeated Minnesota has only allowed 29 total points in its' last three games and is only giving up 289.3 yards a game. Trouble is on offense they're only averaging 262.8 yards a game, and Kyler Murray has been underwhelming with a 73.3 passer rating in two starts. Winning that way isn't sustainable in the long run. The Saints have dropped two straight at home, including Monday night's 45-24 rout by the Falcons. They're 2-0 ATS as a dog and 0-2 as chalk, so maybe they bounce back on a short week.

JETS -1' Browns - So far this season teams that have a rest advantage of three days or more are 8-0 SU and ATS. Cleveland falls into that category after their 27-24 win over Pittsburgh last Thursday. The Browns have been a dog in every game this season and have won their last three outright. The Jets played pretty well over their first three games of the year, but they were outgained by a whopping 335 total yards in a 23-12 loss in Chicago. Not sure what to expect from them here.

STEELERS -2' Colts - Indianapolis is at a major scheduling disadvantage in this one, off a 30-13 win over Washington, in London, and with Pittsburgh off that Thursday night loss in Cleveland. The travel weary Colts are giving up 392.3 yards a game and are averaging just 284.3 on offense. The Steelers are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road but are 2-0 SU and ATS at home, and this feels like a get right game for them.

Texans -7' TITANS - Each team is looking for its' first win of the season. Houston will probably get it, but besides being 0-4, they're also 0-4 ATS and 1-3 ITS (in the stats), not exactly the resume' you want with a -7' road favorite. Tennessee's last three losses have been by six points or less.

REDSKINS -3' Giants - It appears that starting QB Jayden Daniels will start for Washington, which is great news in light of backup Marcus Mariota's injury last week. The Giants have won their last two since Jaxson Dart was lost for the season, but not because of anything backup QB Jameis Winston has done (70.4 passer rating).

Bears -2' PACKERS - It doesn't seem to matter which backup QB plays for Chicago. After a Case Keenum led Monday night rout of the Eagles, the Bears dominated the Jets last week behind Tyson Bagent. Hard to imagine Green Bay being a home dog but it's well deserved. They're a mess.

More later.

Sunday late games

Broncos -3' CHARGERS - Denver is playing their second straight away game, after falling in San Francisco, 24-14. They're lucky to be 2-2. They were badly outplayed despite beating the Rams two weeks ago, their offense is struggling with first year OC Davis Webb calling the shots, and their defense has been uncharacteristically bad, allowing 375 yards per game including 142.8 on the ground (4.8 YPR). I'd really like to take the Chargers in this one, but their offensive line is banged up.....again, their receivers and tight ends are all either out or playing hurt, and all four starters in the secondary may or may not play. Leaning Bolts, but waiting for injury clarification before investing.

Lions -5' CARDINALS - Second straight road game for Detroit after last week's 32-26 upset loss at Carolina. Arizona has lost three straight, including a 36-24 upset loss on the road against the Giants in their last outing. The Lions defense has been a sieve, allowing 423.8 yards a game, including 327 through the air. Opponents are hitting 69.7% of their passes against their defenseless secondary. The Cardinals defense isn't much better. Both teams have allowed an average of well over 30 points a game. I like Arizona here. If nothing else the back door should be wide open on this one.

Back in a bit.

GL  on your plays either way whatever you decide @Boisestateand8

Continuing 

SEAHAWKS -3 49ers - San Francisco has won and covered their last four in Seattle, and if the Seahawks expect to turn the tables on their rivals, Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are going to have to come up big, given the cluster of injuries in the RB room. The 49ers have injury concerns of their own along the defensive front. This is a really tough call with the Niners having the better offense, and the 'Hawks owning the better defense.

Sunday night game

FALCONS -3' Ravens - There's a lot of discussion about this game on Claw's thread so check it out. The line in this game has flipped from Baltimore -3'. That's a seven point swing! Yes, I get that Lamar Jackson isn't going to play, but backup QB Tyler Huntley isn't exactly chopped liver. In five games last year filling in for Jackson he compiled a 103.3 passer rating! Atlanta comes into this game on a short week and the Ravens look like a dangerous dog here. 

Monday, Oct. 12th

RAMS -3 Bills - Statistically speaking this game shouldn't be close. The Rams are allowing just 247.5 yards a game, and that includes the Australian debacle (27-7 loss to the 49ers) in the season opener! In their last three games L.A. has outgained their opponents by 299, 225 and 243 yards a game! The reason they're just 2-2 is because they've lost the turnover battle in all four games! The Bills are off a 29-26 upset loss at home to the Patriots as a seven point favorite. They're still trying to figure things out on defense with their new 3-4 alignment. But since the end of his rookie year, Josh Allen is 27-8 SU after a loss. I'm leaning Rams, but if they don't take better care of the football all bets are off.

So who do y'all like this week and why? I won't have any official plays until the updated injury reports come in, but if you read between the lines you can see which way I'm leaning this week on a few games.

@Macwestie1 

Sooooooo glad I didn't take Dallas in my survivor pool. Last night was another case of the Cowboys doing Cowboy things. Their defense is STILL trash after the off-season rebuild and they're not a well coached team. Their best role is as a dog. Laying points with this team is risky biz. Oh, and NFL favorites of over seven points in games not involving Miami are now 1-7 ATS.

Nice write up. Im on the Giants already. Also leaning Baltimore, Pitt, and NE

@Yanasaur

 No plays yet, but I went with the Pats in my survivor pool.

@Boisestateand8

 Nice. Im one of the dummies that took Dallas. Now officially dead in all survivor pools

@Boisestateand8

 Nice write ups 

Injury updates

Eagles-Jaguars - Philadelphia is only averaging 270 yards a game on offense and will be playing this one without RB Saquon Barkley, his backup Tank Bigsby, WRs DeVonta Smith and Hollywood Brown, and O-linemen Landon Dickerson, Lane Johnson (retired) and Cam Jurgens (traded) Yikes! Hard to see them putting up many points here. Plus, it doesn't sound like they learned anything from the Rams' travel strategy to Australia. They arrived this morning in London while the Jags arrived yesterday. Looks like a blowout, but how many guys expected the Falcons to dominate the Cowboys Thursday night with a rookie QB?

Raiders-Patriots - Vegas RB Ashton Jeanty didn't practice Friday with a bum ankle, but Mike Washington is a decent backup and they've been winning with the passing game anyway. The Pats have a long injury list, especially on the O-line and the back seven, and I don't completely trust Drake Maye off one good game. So for the third time I'm changing my survivor pick from Dallas, to New England and now to Jacksonville. 

Giants-Redskins - Even though Jayden Daniels is back, his top WR, Terry McLaurin, is 50-50 to play with a gimpy hammy and Stefan Diggs is out. With the 'Skins playing in London last week this is a jet lag game for them. The Giants are worth a look here, even with Jameis Winston at QB.

Broncos-Chargers - Denver is missing All Pro CB Patrick Surtain, but the Chargers receiving corps is in shambles and may not be able to take advantage. Ladd McConkey MAY play but he's gimpy with a bad foot. The Bolts' offensive line is in even worse shape. They're down four starters, including Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, and four rookie linemen were forced to finish last week's game in Seattle. I'm still leaning Chargers but with all the injuries I doubt I'll play it.