NFL Week 4 Ponderings

Week Three recap:

1-2 ATS -4.7 units. Ugh.

Won with the Browns last week, but they were outgained by 101 total yards, so I kinda grabbed 'em with that game.

Wasn't quite so fortunate with the afternoon games. The Buccaneers were my top play but the Vikings put me in a hole early with an 86 yard punt return TD. Two things you can't handicap are injuries to key players, and defensive/special teams scores. Give credit to Minnesota's defense and special teams, but Tampa Bay killed themselves with crucial penalties at inopportune times. With 1st and goal at the Vikings' seven yard line, trailing 10-7, consecutive holding penalties forced them to settle for a field goal. After Minny made it 17-10, a holding penalty on the ensuing kickoff negated a nice return. Later, a 15 yard gain on a 3rd and 15 play was negated by a chop block penalty. Another holding call negated an 85 yard TD pass on a 3rd and 29 play! Later, a Baker Mayfield 14 yard scramble on 2nd and 9 was negated by still ANOTHER holding call. Finally, after the Bucs closed to 17-16, an unnecessary roughness penalty on the ensuing kickoff set the Vikes up for another field goal. Then, Mayfield injured his thumb while throwing an interception, setting up Minny's final score. A frustrating game to say the least! 

And then there was the Saints' fourth quarter meltdown against the Raiders. Leading 27-22 and driving, New Orleans proceeded to turn the ball over FOUR times in a 35-27 loss! 

Thank God September is in the rearview mirror. Goodbye and good riddance. A new slate of games is on the horizon. What follows are the opening lines with the home teams in CAPS. 

Thursday, Oct. 1st

Steelers -2' BROWNS - I don't see much value in the line in this one, with both teams holding on for narrow victories last week. Both teams are 2-1 SU and ATS, but the Browns are 0-3 ITS (in the stats), being outgained by over 78 yards a game. For what it's worth, the home team in this series is on a 9-0 SU and ATS heater! 

More later.

@Boisestateand8

 I was on Tampa as well. When they called that Godwin TD back for yet another hold I had to switch to another game. Unbelievable 

Sunday, Oct. 4th - early games

Colts -3' Redskins - Both teams are off huge upset wins at home, and now travel across the pond to London. Indy survived three Daniel Jones turnovers to beat Houston, and have now committed six turnovers to just one takeaway in three games. Washington was outgained 437 total yards to 258, but converted three Seattle turnovers into 21 points. I really don't see any drop-off from injured starting QB Jayden Daniels to Marcus Mariota, but this is a tough call.

The home team between the two, has won 9 of their last 10 match-ups(90%) in the last 5 years. 

@lajohn

 Yes, the home team is 9-1 over the last five years, but has won and covered nine straight! 

Looks like this line wants to go higher. +3 or better might make this a play. I know I'm not gonna buck a 9-0 trend.

It's really wild to think that one of those 2 awful teams is somehow gonna be 3-1

Continuing:

BILLS -6' Patriots - Not sure what's up with Drake Maye. After leading the NFL in passer efficiency (113.5) with only eight interceptions a year ago, he's already thrown six picks in the first three games and his efficiency rating is an ugly 58.6. The Bills are off to a hot start, despite a defense that's allowing 361.3 yards a game. The Pats defense has played well, allowing just 278.3 yards a game. This line seems a mite steep, considering that the last six meetings between these two have been decided by seven points or less. MAYBE Maye will turn things around in this game against a so-so defense.

RAVENS -11' Titans - Tennessee isn't good, and Baltimore oughta win this game by at least two tds.....IF they don't have a bad case of jet lag from flying back from Brazil. 

BEARS -3' Jets - The New Yorkers could be a tough out here with the Bears coming off a short week, following their huge 27-7 upset of Philadelphia. But it doesn't appear Breece Hall will be able to play for the Jets, and Ben Johnson hasn't named a starting QB yet for Chicago. Seems like it oughta be Case Keenum after the game he had Monday night, but the only reason he played was because #2 guy Tyson Bagent was in concussion protocol. Too many unknowns at this point.

BENGALS -2' Jaguars - Based on last week's results it would appear the wrong team is favored here, BUT, while Jacksonville is good, they're not as good as Drake Maye made them look last week. The total yardage in that game was virtually even. Cincy is coming off a tough loss at Pittsburgh, and Joe Burrow probably won't be as generous with the football as Maye was. Looks like a 27-24 kinda game.

TEXANS -2' Cowboys - Dallas is giving up nearly 180 yards a game on the ground (5 YPR), and the overall returns on their rebuilt defense aren't good. Plus, they're returning from a tough loss to Baltimore in Brazil and had a long flight back to ponder their shortcomings. Tough to bet on the Texans though, who are on a 0-3 SU and ATS start for the second season in a row. Their offensive line is still an issue and they've really missed All Pro WR Nico Collins.

Cardinals -1' GIANTS - Arizona hung tough at San Francisco last week, after trailing 23-6 in the third quarter, but now make the long trip to the East Coast for an early start time. They don't do daylight savings time in Arizona so are currently on Pacific time. Last week the Chargers and Seahawks both lost SU and ATS as west coasters playing at a 10 AM start time. The Giants took a real gut punch when they lost Jaxson Dart to a knee injury. You know they don't have a ton of confidence in Jameis Winston when they traded for Minnesota's J.J. McCarthy. Still, slightest of leans to the G-men.

Rams -3 EAGLES - L.A. blew a 16-0 lead at Denver last Sunday night and are the other team making the coast to coast road trip. They actually outgained the Broncos 482 total yards to 257 in that loss. The Eagles are 0-3 ATS, but are a dog for the first time this year. Maybe they'll come out with their hair on fire but they really have looked good this season. Their offense has struggled ever since OC Kellen Moore left for New Orleans and they miss A.J. Brown.

Packers -3' BUCCANEERS - Green Bay looked horrible at home vs. Atlanta last Thursday night, and Tampa Bay is starting a rookie QB after Baker Mayfield dislocated his thumb. Pick your poison.

I thought last week was the get right game for Drake Maye. Now I think its this week. I think we will see a 180 from NE here and Buffalo got gifted a win by San Diego.

Ravens game screams lazy win and not cover

Nice write ups

@Yanasaur. BOL brother! Thanks for chiming in. 

@Boisestateand8

 Thanks for the thread 

@undermysac

My pleasure! 

GL on your plays this week mah man always look forward to your write-ups @Boisestateand8

Sunday late games

VIKINGS -10' Dolphins - Miami wasn't any good to begin with, but with the loss of RB De'Von Achane to a season ending knee injury, wins figure to be hard to come by. Minnesota's defense is legit. In the first three games they've stuffed the run, allowing 85.7 yards a game (3.5 YPR), and while they're giving up yards through the air they've sacked opposing QBs 14 times and have six takeaways. I'm not one to lay double digits in the NFL, but it's hard to see the Dolphins staying within two TDs in this game. The Vikes are my eliminator pick this week.

Chiefs -4' RAIDERS - Kansas City finds themselves on the road again after a tougher than expected win at Miami. They better bring their "A" game here. I bemoaned the Saints' meltdown in the fourth quarter last week, but Las Vegas is much improved and made those plays happen. I've underestimated them the past two weeks, but the fact of the matter is Kirk Cousins is playing great ball under first year coach Klint Kubiak, and Brock Bowers is doing a pretty good Travis Kelce impersonation. The Silver 'n Black are worth a look here.

49ERS -2' Broncos - Denver's offense is sputtering under first year OC Davis Webb, as evidenced by Bo Nix's 80.3 passer rating. And their defense was lit up by both the Chiefs and Rams. Last week the Rams outgained them by 225 yards but were victimized by a bad pass interference call, negating an interception that would've won the game. As for San Francisco, Brock Purdy is in midseason form with a 133.1 passer rating and the offense is humming. But a check on the injury front reveals that their defensive line is a trainwreck, and they also have some other key players banged up that bear watching. 

SEAHAWKS -7 Chargers - The Bolts are off to a horrible start but at least were competitive at Buffalo last Sunday. Things don't get any easier this week, facing a Seattle team that stumbled in a 33-31 upset loss at Washington last week as -8' point chalk. Sam Darnold had some hiccups in his first start since getting hurt in the opener. This line is spot on with my numbers.

Lions -3' PANTHERS - Detroit is allowing 416.7 yards a game, including 326.3 through the air, minus injured All Pro DBs Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph. Carolina is primed to take advantage and they fall into one of my favorite trends. Under Dave Canales they've covered 11 of their last 14 as a home dog, and as a dog off a loss, they've covered 14 straight including 8-0 at home! I'm not a totals guy, but both offenses can score and over 50.5 points seems doable.

Monday, Oct. 5th

SAINTS -2' Falcons - Atlanta looked like a whole different team with Michael Penix back under center in their 35-14 dismantling of Green Bay last Thursday night. With the extra rest, playing a second straight away game shouldn't be a problem. New Orleans is looking to rebound from that fourth quarter meltdown in the loss to the Raiders that lightened my wallet. Tough call in this one.

That's it kids! All comments are welcome. Who do you like and why this weekend? Cheers! 

@Macwestie1

 BOL to you too my brother! 

Rams gonna smash sorry Eagles. Coaching mismatch.

In my comments about that game, I meant to say the Eagles "really HAVEN'T looked good this season". Guess I need to do a better job of proofreading. Fact is they struggled against the Redskins and Titans before getting blown out by the Bears. But I do think they could be a dangerous dog here with L.A. going to the east coast off a tough loss at Denver. I'm passing the game myself but BOL if you play it.