NFL Week 4

Denver Broncos +3        3units

Philadelphia Eagles +3    3units

Las Vegas Raiders +4.5  2units 

__________________

LEANS

Cincinnati Bengals -2.5

Houston Texans -2.5

Raiders Hot for sure but KC heading into Bye. They usually take care of business 4-1 ATS L5.

Great call on Redskins LW

GL!

Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 53-21-1 ATS since ‘13, 71.6%, +29.9 Units, 40.4% ROI, Grade 73)

@ChOmP

 Gl this week chomp. What puts you on Denver? What would you make that line?

Im playing the number 4.5 seems steep for KC on the road especially against a much improved Raiders team.. I really believe Raiders have something positive going for them mentally sitting at 3-0 just like the chiefs..Oakland has playmakers.. RB Jeanty.. Trey Tucker needs to be used more he has the potential to be elite.. TE Brock Bowers is the Key to all of this.. Defense is playing well 2nd in EPA per play allowed.. 9th in success rate.. have one of the highest pressure rates.. Max Crosby and the rest of that defensive line are creating a ton of pressure on QBs which makes the secondary have better opportunities to make plays on the ball.. (Trench Game is where EVERYTHING starts) 10 sacks.. 4 INTs.. 5 fumble recoveries.. 1 safety.. 1 blocked kick.. in 3 games..  in the last 4 games head to head with KC, Raiders have kept it 1 score games 3 out of the 4..

I have been saying Kirk Cousins is a great quarterback for a long time.. he’s much older now coming off an injury but he manages games well enough to motivate an Oline.. Kirk Cousins will make this a game @home .. confidence is a hell of a drug..

3-0 Raiders versus a divisional 3-0 KC

Kenneth Walker looked nice versus Denver.. Indianapolis.. and Miami defensive lines.. let’s see what a Las Vegas Raiders Dline can do against KCs run game and pass game.. Perception of the Raiders might need to change after this rock fight..

Andy Reid off of a bye week..

All the injuries on San Francisco 49ers..

Denver’s defense is picking up steam just in time for this matchup.. they have been battle tested.. there schedule this year first 6 games..

@ Kansas City - Divisional top team

Vs Jacksonville - tough out 

Vs Los Angeles Rams - cornered animal

@ San Francisco 49ers - top dogs in there division right now but very injured

@ Los Angeles Chargers - cornered animal

Vs Seattle Seahawks - Super Bowl champs one of the best defenses in the league..

Bo Nix should be praised sitting at 2-1 coming off an injury playing versus this schedule.. Broncos defense is legit.. 4th quarter wins since last season..

On the other side San Francisco 49ers played a tired Rams team and a defense that is a shell of itself.. Miami is in downfall.. Cardinals team which has been the bottom feeder in the division for a long while not to mention Cardinals put up 30 points on that secondary..

Now they have a handful of players that will be playing banged up on Offense and Defense.. No Bosa is a big deal on the defense.. I don’t think people understand.. even with Raheem Morris at the helm.. they just can’t be as dominant on the line which strictly affects a banged up secondary that is mid when healthy.. they need Mike Evans to be on the field versus this Denver defense he is the #1 receiver.. I am almost positive he won’t be playing at 100% 

Not to mention San Francisco has Seattle on deck and this game has been flexed to Sunday Night Football next week.. could be a look ahead spot

im not a lines maker but I would make this 

Broncos -2.5 I think the Broncos win by 3 or more we’ll see how Hufanga plays versus his old team.. he had a pick 6 versus Rams and another interception in the endzone last seconds of the game to close the win..

@ChOmP

Really spot on with the Denver write-up. I had this game circled since last week and was hoping Denver would've lost so we could've got more value on the line. Glad to see you on Denver, too. Nice call on the Cardinals. 

My favorite games of the week are Denver and Patriots +6.5. Huge leans on Chargers +7 and Chiefs -4.5. How do you feel about the Patriots and Chargers this Sunday?

Very sharp sides and leans Chomp 

Good Luck 

If you go off of TOTAL EPA..
Drake Maye looks like is near the bottom..

6 INTs.. 1 fumble.. 1 TD..  pass yards per game 178,208,199.. last season he only had 2 games for less than 200 pass yards which was late in the season week 15 versus Bills for 155py and 1 INT… also week 18 versus Miami with 191py.. so 2 divisional foes..

Drake Maye only had 2 games without a TD last season.. the two games without a touchdown were both against the Bills..

Previous season Maye had 31 passing TDs.. 4rushing TDs with 8 INTS  3 fumbles .. looks great..

point being he’s not having a good start to the season but it should make a little sense when you look at who they have played coming out the gate..

•@Seattle

•Vs Pittsburgh

•@jacksonville

RBs wise 1 fumble for Stevenson so that many turnovers no bueno especially at QB 3 games in..plain and simple Maye has to take care of the ball better..

neither RB has cracked 80 yards in a game Henderson came close at 76..

so 1 rushing TD from the Rbs and 1 passing TD from Drake Maye in 3 games..

also not a fan of a split back while a team needs to find an identity while riddled with injuries on offense.. to me this team needs to just run the ball and kill clock to keep games tight so they stay in games because Drake doesn’t look good right now.. they have Oline issues too..

on the other hand Bills defense has given up 7 touchdowns with just 1 int.. so there’s that.

I am not touching this game but if I had to I would take the Bills..

Herbert is also near the bottom.. the reason Chargers suck is because of turnovers Herbert has 3TDs 4 INTs..

•RB Keaton Mitchell should have more attempts he has 85 yards for 17 attempts in 3 games..

•Vidal had 1 rush for 6 yards 1 game.. •Omarion Hampton can’t hold on to the ball he has 2 fumbles, 1 in each of the first two games.. 193 total rush yards for 50 attempts in 3 games..

Chargers have a turnover problem.. the main concern is Justin Herbert.. he’s not playing well and in my experience when a player gets together with a popular chick it doesn’t go well.. Herberts 4th quarter INTS plus turnovers on downs and block punts plus fumbles literally a recipe for failure..

Same deal I can’t touch this game but if I had to I would take Seattle off a loss at home.. they lost to Washington with a backup and they gave up 33 points

The numbers seem high enough to play the dog here but I just can’t get behind these teams this week.. my words of advice for anyone is take what you need from all of my nonsense rambling and make a strong decision based on all of your data collected..

Good Luck this week with your plays 

@SharpSharks

@ChOmP

 Teams are confusing Drake Maye with cover 6. You can thank Mike McDonald for that, in the SB and week 1 this year.

It doesn't help that Stefon Diggs is gone, and that AJ Brown has basically not played all year. And Romeo Doubs sucks.

I made more $ off of the Pats than any team last year. I have pumped the brakes this year.

With that being said, +6.5/+7 is a Patriots # this weekend imo.

I'm leaning harder on the Texans every day. It's a now or never spot. No way I'd back the Cowboys after Brazil, or just a no bet.

Thursday Night Football leaning 

Cleveland Browns +2.5  I would like a +3

Rogers will most likely throw to every TE the Steelers own

•Robert “the Old faithful” Tonyan

•Darnell “the barrel” Washington

Aka “The Behemoth” in 3 games

8 targets 6 receptions for 92 yrds

•& Patty Freiermuth in 3 games

14 targets 11 receptions for 108 yrds

Jaylen Warren is playing well but this matchup is going to be a tough one

——————————-

Through 3 Games 

Roman Wilson *

18 targets 11 receptions for 114 yrds 1 TD

DK Metcalf

24 targets 11 receptions 98 yrds 1 TD

Michael Pittman Jr

8 targets 5 receptions 74 yrds

Germie Bernard

9 targets 5 receptions for 49

Defensively the Steelers defense are good at covering TEs.. they have only allowed 10 receptions to TEs..

(so they could possibly hold Harold Fannin jr to a minimum making Deshaun Watson look for others..)

Harold Fannin Jr in 3 games

18 targets 14 receptions for 126 yrds 2 TDs

Browns RBs have also struggled rushing the ball but they have been good as pass catching RBs..

 
through 3 games

Quinshon Judkins 

42 rush attempts for 124 yrds

9 targets 9 receptions 53 yrds

Raheim Sanders

4 rush attempts for 22yrds

9 targets 8 receptions for 66 yrds

Passing-WRs

 Through 3 games

Denzel Boston 

15 targets 9 receptions for 195 yrds 2 TDs and 1  2point conversion

KC Concepcion Jr *

4 rush attempts for 9 yrds

20 targets 12 receptions for 80 yrds 1fumble

Jerry Jeudy is on a milk carton

the offensive line is banged up.. that’s also why Deshaun Watson will have to continue to show us he can escape the pocket.. which kudos to him finally understanding “yeah.. I can’t chill back here” Deshaun is actually playing better than a lot of quarterbacks right now in 3 games

5TDs 1INT 587PYrds 24 rushes for 105 yards and a 2point conversion for the cherry ontop 

I think Browns perception because of Deshaun is why people will make a play on the Steelers.. Cleveland defense has been playing well they have talent even with the DC change and Garrett leaving.. they are bend don’t break

The crazy trend

Primetime Thursday nights.. @Home Browns are 10-2 SU  9-3 ATS they’ve covered 9 straight in a row

GL 

Nakobe fucking Dean