***NFL WEEK 3 PLAYS***

(Ravens -10.5 vs Browns)  Ravens have a great defense this season but their offense is lacking some what. I think the Ravens offense will light up the scoreboard while their defense shuts the Browns offense down. The Ravens were in a bad spot last week vs the Bengals.

The Browns offense looked mediocre at best but their defense was horrific. They couldnt stop the Chiefs passing game as Matty from KC was shredding the Browns defense all day.

Flacco will have a field day vs the Browns defense. Play on: Ravens -10.5 & Under 37

(Steelers -2.5 at Tampa)  Tampa is playing over their heads at the moment beating two of the worst teams in the league arguably, the Panthers & Browns & they looked good doing it.

Steelers beat the Falcons in Pittsburgh & the Titans on the road, both wins without big Ben. Leftwich is starting this week & he may be a bit rusty. This is a very tough game to cap because defensively, the Steelers can shut Tampa's offense down, so with that said, I believe the Under could be a play. Play on: Small plays on Tampa ML & Under 33

(Bengals -3 at Panthers)  Panthers have started the season 0-2 & look pathetic doing it. The are starting a rookie qb this week & it will make for an interesting game none the less.

Bengals won a physical divisional game at home vs the Ravens & I am wondering if they can play up to that level again vs the Panthers, but then again, not much work has to be put into beating the Panthers. No Play in this game.

(Saints -3.5 vs Falcons)  The SAints won by 5 over the Vikings in week 1 & barely beat the 49ers on Monday night. The Saints defense is lacking.

The Falcons played to a tough overtime loss to the (2-0) Steelers in week 1. The Falcons took care of business last week vs the Cards & should be up for this game big time! Trend for this game: Saints are 4-21 ATS past 25 games at home vs the Falcons. Play on: Falcons +3.5  

Hey PTB, we appreciate everything you've done for the community and I've always been a big fan.

Here are my early leans. Let me know what you think?

Balt-10.5

NO-4.5 (I know I know bud. I actually live here in SF and I feel the wind definitely had an effect on the game. I think Brees is a beast in the dome)

Den+5.5

MIA-1.5

GB-3 (already nabbed this. I agree and don't think we'll see -3 for too long)

I'm trying to practice better money management so I may play 3 or 4 out of these 5 plays.

Any feedback you could provide would be greatly appreciated...let's get this

I know the Ravens will beat the Browns & they should cover the spread but I recommend playing the Ravens in a 3 team 10 point teaser: Ravens Pk, Vikings -1, Tampa +13.

The Saints imo will win by 3 points or less.

Denver beat Seattle last week & Seattle is a bad road team. The Colts will win this game & they should cover also.

Miami vs the Jets will be a physical game & I will have a write-up on this game coming soon.

G Bay vs Chicago is a great Monday night game because both teams are 2-0. The Packers are my Monday night game of the year play.

(49ers -3 at Chiefs)  Chiefs are (2-0) & are again a dog after winning outright as a dog the previous two times. Are the Chiefs playing over their heads like some other teams in the NFL?

The 49ers are (0-2) but should have beaten the Saints but then again, the Saints are a very lucky team & the lucky bounce prevails with great teams. The 49ers were 3 point road favs in week 1 & they got pummeled in Seattle & I just dont see what changes here. Play on: Chiefs +3 & ML

(Skins -3.5 at Rams)  Rams are playing inspiring football behind their rookie qb as they have only lost by 4 & 2 points respectively. It may take a few years but this team should get back on track.

The Skins beat their division rival Cowboys in week 1 & had a 27-10 lead over the Texans last week but couldnt hold on as Matt Shaub performed a miracle come from behind win. The Skins suffered a heart breaker & I am trying to figure out if they are up to the task at hand this week as they have to travel to Philly & play McNabbs nemesis, the Eagles. Will the Skins over look the Rams? They may but I still feel the Skins win this one but I will not be betting this game. No Play!

Quote Originally Posted by avrgsr:

Thanks PTB...appreciate your input buddy...keep up the great work

No problem!  

Quote Originally Posted by dcowboys:

SO FAR ITS GIANTS -3 AND PROBABLY MIA -1.5

These plays look as good as that curvacious ass in you avatar. 

(Eagles -3 at Jags)  The (1-1) Jags are coming home after a beatdown at San Diego & are looking ot get back on track. They beat Denver in week 1 & are looking to stop Vick & the Eagles.

The Eagles (1-1) are in their 2nd of back to back road games & for some reason they seem to play better on the road. Vick is a step up from Kevin Kolb & I see this Eagles team going in the right direction by implementing Vick in the offense. The Eagles come home next week to play the Skins & it should be a great homecoming for McNabb  . Im sure the Eagles will accomodate him. Play on: Eagles -3

(Colts -5.5 at Denver)  Denver got back on track after beating Seattle & are looking to go 2-1 to open the season. The Broncos do play well at home but I think they will be outclassed playing against the Colts.

The Colts lost their opener to the Texans & the Texans proved they are the real deal last week down 17 points to the Skins only to come back & win the game. That game & Sunday night showed me the Colts still have what it takes to be a great team. Play on: Colts -5.5  (I know about the 5.5 point thingy)

The Pats line is up to 14 & will probably close at 14.5 to 15. I know Belichick is a great coach & takes out his frustrations on bad teams & I could be wrong about the Pats this week but for some reason I feel the Bills get the back door cover.

The first two weeks in the NFL are tricky. Look at V Tech losing their 1st two games & giving up 20 points last week to an E Carolina team that won their 1st two games. V Tech covered. That is what the Vikings game will be like. Not saying that the Lions won their 1st two games but perception of how close they played those games are in the minds of the public & it will be a disaster to whom ever bets on the Lions this week.

PTB - I saw this logic from another post but as odd as it sounds, there may be some logic to it?

What are your thoughts on this? I know, it's a superstition thing but it does sort of hold a little bit of weight as I would imagine it would encourage everyone on the team to play in that deceased players honor.

Denver +6 seems like a really good bet. I also noticed a trend when a player or family member dies in a team, that team plays harder to win.

Broncos Receiver Mckinley dies of suicide.

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68K0AK20100921?loomia_ow=t0:s0:a49:g43:r2:c0.126932:b37485518:z0

Am I just reading too much into this? Yay or nay?

Forgot to include the quotations but here's what I pasted from another discussion

"Denver +6 seems like a really good bet. I also noticed a trend when a player or family member dies in a team, that team plays harder to win.

Broncos Receiver Mckinley dies of suicide.

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68K0AK20100921?loomia_ow=t0:s0:a49:g43:r2:c0.126932:b37485518:z0"

He commited suicide so I dont see where the team comes out & plays harder. I see suicide as a cowardly thing to do because of all the loved ones you leave behind with lots of questions that will never be answered. 

I can see if a teammate gets killed in a car crash or accident of any kind or gets murdered but I just dont buy into it when a teammate takes their own life.  I think the teamwill be out of focus wondering why their teammate & friend commited suicide, just my opinion tho.

Quote Originally Posted by avrgsr:

Good point....guess it's just me looking too much into things...Thanks again PTB..

Only thing that scares me is a trend: Broncos are 9-2-1 ATS as a homedog since 1994.

Trends that stand out for week 3:

Vikings are 15-1 SU at home vs the Lions past 16 years. The spread is about split. Play Vikings on 3 team 10 point teasers & ML parlays.

Patriots are 13-3 SU at home vs Bills past 16 years. Patriots are a good ML play in parlays.

Ravens are 9-3 SU at home vs Browns past 12 years. Ravens are a good ML play for parlays & 3team 10 point teasers.

Seattle is 5-4 SU at home vs the Chargers since 1994. Seattle is a good play for a small ML play & +5.5.

The Bears are 3-13 SU & 4-12 ATS at home vs G Bay past 16 years. Packers -3 is a great play & G Bay in parlays & any teaser is an excellent bet.

Quote Originally Posted by avrgsr:

Wow, that is an interesting stat. Might just have to leave this game alone?

I havent bet the Colts -5.5 as a single bet but I have put them in a few parlays. Now I wish I would have taken the Colts ML in the parlays because I cant see the Colts losing SU.

I hear your logic PTB. I can't get the ML on my parlays.

The recent thread about the teasers is really making me consider possibly giving teasers a shot?

NE-1

Balt+2.5

ATL+17 (or maybe swap for Den+18.5 - Colts may win s/u here but I don't think they get blown out)

MIN+2

Thoughts?

I like all those teams in 3 team 13 point teasers. If you gotta force a play, then make the Broncos your last resort. Why not play the Colts +7.5?

I would personally take Pats -1, Vikings +2 & Ravens +2.5 or Tampa +16