NFL Week 3

YTD: 6-4 ATS


Tennessee +3.5

Always nice to have the desperate home team angle going for you but often people use that with really bad teams and it doesn't make a difference. I actually think the Titans have quite a bit of talent, they've just played sloppy and run into two good teams so far. There is a very surprising amount of speed and skill at the skill positions on this team. Britt, Wright, Washington, Johnson, Cook, and even Williams are all decent players. Locker has struggled but I think he has a nice opportunity here to get the ball in the playmakers' hands against a Lions secondary that is banged up and not good. Lions have a good D-line but the Titans O-line has always been top notch in pass protection. Including this year they have finished 2nd, 6th, 2nd, and 1st in fewest sacks allowed the last 4 years. Good spot for Chris Johnson to get going as well. Ringer may be back to light a fire under his ass or to actually produce himself.

The Lions to me are not a team worthy of laying this may points on the road. We are talking about a team here that has covered 3 spreads in their last 14 games. This squad is a huge money burner. They are a one dimensional offense with a QB who has looked way off so far this year. As mentioned their secondary is also banged up and IMO weak. Many of their wins have been of the come from behind variety and we are getting close to a full season that they have not really been that impressive. Lions also off a very physical game with the Niners. SF may be developing into the BAL or PIT teams of old where you just get really beat up playing them because they are so physical.


Jacksonville +3

I had the Jags last week and to say they were dominated would be an understatement. There is no NFL team that can be that bad against anyone if they show up to play. Some element of Jacksonville's effort last week had to have been them not being fully prepared to play. I expect it to be a different story this week as they look to atone for a completely embarrassing performance. When you put forth the single worst offensive game in team history there is nowhere to go but up. Luckily for them they get an opponent they can do well against. A bad Colts defense to begin with is banged up and I think can be scored on. There is a monstrous class difference between the Texans defense and the Colts defense. If the Jags pound #32 and work Gabbert off play action they can score. I love Luck but the Colts as a whole are not a good team and fading bad teams as favorites is always something I look for.


New England +3

Yeah the Ravens have the whole revenge angle going for them but the fact the Pats lost last week probably cancels all of that out and then some. This team has been very, very good off losses and no doubt will be very motivated off a real bad game. As far as on the field goes I'm still quite high on this Patriots defense, especially the front 7. This unit is vastly improved over last season and more importantly much more physical. The Ravens defense didn't look great against the run in Week 1 and last week gave up a ton of yards threw the air. Obviously the Pats have injuries on offense but Branch is back and I expect a much more Welker-centered gameplan in this one. Belichick's #1 priority has always been taking away the other teams best player and so far that has not changed this season (Chris Johnson 11 carries 4 yards, Larry Fitzgerald 1 catch 4 yards). I expect him to come hard after Rice and make Flacco beat them.

This is not an ideal scenario for the Pats walking into that stadium in a night game against a team that will be plenty fired up. But let's put some perspective on it this is not a young inexperienced team walking into a hornets nest, this is a veteran club that has been excellent on the road the last few years and has played in many big games so it's not like they will come in intimidated as evidenced by the fact Tom Brady is 31-12-3 ATS as a dog. Plus the Pats have no doubt been hearing it all week from Belichick off that performance. Numerous players said they had a terrible week of practice before the Cards game last week. Last time they said that was when they lost to Cleveland two years ago. The next week they went on the road on SNF and spanked the Steelers in their own stadium.


Pittsburgh/Oakland OVER 44

Raiders offense has been abysmal so far. This is a spot where I expect them to open up the playbook completely. This is also a good spot for the Raiders and I expect them to play to their strength which is the offense especially after two really bad offensive performances. The Steelers still have some injuries on defense and off a great performance against the Jets I can see them being a little off (and possibly complacent against an offense that has shown nothing) flying way out west. This is also a Steeler defense that has quietly given up 20 points a game on the road over the last year and a game.

The only reason I'm not taking Oakland is because I don't think it's enough points to back a defense that is this bad. I didn't like Oakland's D one bit coming into the year and I still don't. The Steelers have too many good skill position players to not score in this game against this lackluster defense. If Oakland plays a strong game like the situation suggests they should then the game will be high scoring.


Also looking at the Bears but no rush there, and I'll probably end up on the Broncos again.


GL.

Love the Titans this week buddy...pretty much for the reasons you stated above. Feel they are a lot better than they've showed and I think the Lions are very overrated, mainly because of their putrid defense. Titans have a couple good corners in Verner/McCourty and they can slow down a banged up Calvin Johnson. Not really scared of anything else on that offense.

Lean on my Pats also. They will be just as amped as the Ravens for this one, coming off that loss. I think the Under might be a better play because of Pats improved D and the loss of Hernandez is pretty huge to that offense. Still think the Pats win though, don't think the Ravens have a great pass rush without Suggs and the loss of him and Jarret Johnson has made their overall D suffer quite a bit.

What are your thoughts on the Eagles? Despite being 2-0 everyone is shitting on them and I really think they bend over the Cards this week. Not only do they have revenge from last year on their mind, the Cards must be fat and happy after knocking off their division rival and then going into NE and winning SU in back to back weeks. This team is truly not that good. They have an offense that is probably worse than Miami's and whilst they have a very good defense, this team is due for a reality check. The Eagles have an even better defense than them, and that devastating pass rush will give a brutal Cards O-Line plenty of problems. Expect to see Kolb on his ass this week running for his life and Nnamdi will erase the only weapon on that offense in Fitzgerald.

Also like the Vikings at home getting a TD against a Niners team off 2 big statement wins....may post later with my thoughts on the game.

I had Tennessee last week and they looked terrible. I can't say I'm a big Jake Locker fan because he lacks accuracy and the coaching staff doesn't seem to have a game plan that will utilize his mobility. Why don't they design some plays where they move the pocket? I know their OL has performed well over the past couple of years but so far, and I've watched both of their games, they've had real problems opening holes up for CJ and have had some protection issues. As for Tennessee's defense they sure play a lot of vanilla schemes and I'm wondering if this plays into Detroit's hands. Is Colin McCarthy (MLB) back this week? He's one of their best play makers on defense and I think they sorely missed him last week.

As for Detroit, they have a lot of holes. Their defensive backs are banged up and they aren't that good to start with. On offense, they are one dimensional relying on the passing game more than any other team in the league. Here's an interesting STAT: Teams that go from a 7-9 record or worse to a 10-6 record or better almost always regress in the next season. In fact, 26 of 29 teams that fit this scenario ended up regressing and not just by a couple of games. Well, it looks like Detroit fits this STAT. Sure, SF also qualifies for this situation but I just don't see it.

I see your point about taking points in a must win situation and DETROIT looks to be a team to selectively fade through out the season. Good Luck.

nepatriots_12: Cards were the seventeenth team since 2000 to win as a dog of 13.5 points or more but the most important stat is how did those teams perform in the next week? I don't have access to a database but I've read some ATS trends that heavily, and I mean heavily favor the Eagles in this spot. What makes it even more interesting is that the CARDS beat the EAGLES last year as 13.5 dogs in Philadelphia and then the next week lost to SF 23-10 on the road and failed to cover. After last years loss to CARDS do you think they will be looking past ARIZONA to their big divisional game against the NYG the next week. Last year PHILLY lost both games and failed to cover before their NYG matchup so who knows, and one of those games was aforementioned loss to ARZ. Here is another interesting stat: professional gamblers consider a turnover worth about four points so if you look at the RAVENS game the EAGLES were -2 in the TO department which cost them 8 points on the scoreboard. Another thing to consider is the EAGLES lost their starting 'C' Kelce for the season and Dunlap their LT might not go this week.

Brady 11-1 ats in non-div gms in the 1st 4 gms of the season vs opp they beat in  the previous matchup

Nice plays

Titans are my favourite "against the grain"  play of the week.

I faded the garbage Lions with Rams +9, and Niners -7, the Titans will almost certainly be on my card. 

 

Always love reading your analysis bud!

Best of Luck  

 Good luck

nepats_12 - Agree with you that the Under may be a good play there. Very high total for two teams that have good defensive fronts and two teams that know each other well playing in a playoff environment. I can't step in though as I have sworn off Unders in Football for good unless it is an extremely high total.

When I first looked the PHI/ARZ I had the same thoughts. But even though that was a huge win for Arizona last week I don't know if they are getting the respect they deserve. They flat out beat the Pats last week but all the talk has been "what's wrong with NE" and "ohh they fell apart once Hernandez went out". This defense is flat out GOOD. When you go 9-2 over your last 11 games never giving up more than 23 points in a game and giving up 12 total defensive TD's over that span you've got a top defense. I know the history of teams in this spot and no doubt ARZ gave it their all last week but PHI was in a very physical game with a playoff like feel as well. I don't know how Arizona scores but I also know this is the type of game where the Eagles outgain their opponent by 200 yards and somehow lose 19-16. They've pulled two games out despite the turnovers but does that make them more motivated to play better or does it leave them complacent thinking "wow we turned the ball over and STILL found ways to win anyways"? If Zona wasn't off the huge win I would be on the Cards in this spot as Philly hosts the Giants on SNF next week and play @ PIT the week after. On the other hand if Philly's D eats Kolb up and the Zona defense plays a little soft (which may be natural) after such a hard fought game then this could get ugly. I'm just really talking out loud here I have to pick this game SU & ATS in several pools and I have absolutely no clue who to pick.

Be interested to hear your thoughts on the Vikings. 2 or 3 years ago (hell even last year) I would have overthought this game and found some angle to back the Vikings, likely the letdown angle. But each year a couple of teams come out on fiiiire and just seem to steamroll teams for the first 5-6 weeks regardless of the spot. The line is currently 6.5. When the line is 6.5 or less the team that wins outright covers about 90% of the time so we are most likely looking at a Niners cover or a Vikings SU win. Is Minnesota going to win this game SU? Be interested to hear your or anyone else's thoughts.

shivaseven - Line is dropping to what looks like 3 so those injury concerns on the Oline (and possibly Maclin) look like they could be for real.

Baker - Good to see you on TEN. Where's your threads this year?

I just read MacLin is out as for Kelce his replacement is Dallas Reynolds who has been in their system for three years so he is familiar with the system but has virtually no playing time in NFL. As for King Dunlap's replacement it is D.Bell who is somewhat experienced and played well last week when Dunlap went down. At my out I see the line just dropped from 4.0 to 3.0. I did do some research with regards to double digit dogs winning outright and their record in the following week is 8-12 ATS. That's a 60 percent cover rate but it's a small sample size.

BOL

As for the 49ers, they opened last year 10-0-1 vs the numbers and this year they are 2-0 ATS. Many people think this is a fade spot for SFR but I'm not sure with Harbaugh's take no prisoners approach. SFR has the best, most physical defense in the league and Smith has turned into more than a game manager. Hell, he's thrown the ball over 200 times without a pick. I watched the VIKES game last week and to me they lacked the focus which they need to go to the next level which, for them, is mediocrity. For instance, on the drive that put up INDY up 20-6 Minnesota had them stopped twice but committed two critical, dumb penalties to keep the drive alive. As for AP, let's not forget he's coming off having his ACL and MCL repaired and right now isn't the same old AP. I don't think Indy's defense is that good yet MINNY had only scored six points on them until half way through the 4th quarter.

like it

not sure how minny scores any points in that game.  niners used to stop peterson cold, and that was pre injury.  maybe they somehow get to 10 but even that im not sure

Belichick's #1 priority has always been taking away the other teams best player and so far that has not changed this season (Chris Johnson 11 carries 4 yards, Larry Fitzgerald 1 catch 4 yards). I expect him to come hard after Rice and make Flacco beat them.

More solid stats for NE:

 

Patriots are 27-3 SU after a loss since 2003

Patriots are 5-1 SU vs. Ravens - last 6 games

 

Pats + 3  -- Like it Andy - GL sir!

Agree on most, but the Ravens are my favorite play this week. Pats can't lose 2 in a row, blah blah blah. The Ravens have only lost 1 home game since the start of the 2010 season (by 3 points to the eventual AFC Super Bowl representative Pittsburgh Steelers).

Still no respect. Getting them laying less than a fg is an absolute gift imho.

BOL this week

Always great info here.  GL andarmac

Green Bay -3

This line is a little crazy IMO. Hey I'm a big Wilson fan and I love Seattle's defense as much as anyone. They will be tough to knock off all year and at 6 or 7 I'd sniff at the Hawks in this one but at +3 you are asking Seattle to win this game outright. Seattle's newfound national love for their defense and the Hawks just spanking the Cowboys ensures that they will have Green Bay's full attention. You've also got the Packers with extra rest to figure out the Seahawks defense and really not plan for too much defensively as Seattle's offense is pretty vanilla and their receivers still stink. Most importantly Rodgers and the offense have been pretty poor by their standards so far. Now you've got a MNF game in a tough environment against what everyone sees as a very tough defense, this is the type of game the offense focuses hard and shows what their really worth.

Plus Seattle is a team that has really come out of nowhere. Most people now see this as a squad that can make the playoffs even though they are very young and have not really won any big, meaningful games (I don't count the Cowboys shitting in a spot they always shit in as a meaningful game). This is a damn meaningful game right here. You've got one of the best teams in the league coming into your house on the national stage and you are expected to give them a fight/possibly win outright. Is this team ready for a game like this? Shit, they've got a QB making his 3rd career start! The Hawks are going to have to pass at some point in this game IMO and when you've got a guy with bad receivers making his 3rd career start against a big time ballhawking secondary that already has 4 picks (and was 1st in the league last year, and 2nd the year before in INT's) I think this could be trouble. Two weeks ago and this line is 6.5/7. All of the factors that are being touted as making this a big game for Seattle (home MNF dog, unreal crowd noise, team on the rise, great defense) actually make this a big game for Green Bay. Good teams win big games on the road.


Denver +...?

Holding out hope for a 3 which is unlikely but I will play the number regardless. I said last week I was higher on the Broncos defense than most and they showed me nothing in ATL to convince me otherwise. They were pretty stout in Atlanta against after a solid showing in Week 1. When your offense coughs up the ball 4 times and spots the other team a 20 point lead and you still have a shot to win the game late that is the defense's doing keeping the team in it. Atlanta had 3 drives of more than 37 yards last week and had just 4.2 yards per play. The Broncos are tied for 1st in the NFL in opp YPP to this point at just 4.1. And that is significant because the team they are tied with is Houston and the Texans numbers have come against Ryan Tannehill in his first start on the road and a dreadful game from Blaine "all world" Gabbert. The Broncos numbers have come against Big Ben and the Steelers weapons and Matt Ryan on the road in that dome with all his skill position talent. It's a not even a contest as to which defense has been more impressive so far.

Coming into the year I was a little concerned with how Houston essentially dumped so many veteran players (Williams, Ryans, Winston, Breisel). These guys were on-field leaders on both sides of the ball. I'm still not sure if they won't be missed when this team finally faces some on-field adversity and that sure as heck hasn't happened playing the two doormats they have so far. Everyone sure seems convinced after MNF that Manning is losing it after throwing all those wobbly ducks, you've even got ex-QB's weighing in saying he's getting near done. Seems like another statement game here against a Super Bowl contender in the late national game. And someone please point out to me when Matt Schaub has ever won a meaningful road game.


GL.

Good to see you buddy. What the piss are we going to do with no Pucks?

That is a good point about the Ravens in the stadium (though they have a losing ATS record at home over that span). It's something the Pats will be aware of though and something that may play into their favor. Perhaps just as impressive as the Ravens home record is the fact that the Pats have lost 3 road games by more than 3 points since the Ravens home run started. This team loves playing in hostile environments and through adversity. All this Hernandez hurt, Welker being phased out, O-line questions, Ravens coming out pissed with revenge on their minds talk all plays into the Pats hands IMO. These are the types of games they live for and play their best and their record in these spots backs that up.

GL

Few random thoughts:

- Chris Johnson should be benched. What a fucking tool. The little seed that this may be a locker room is disarray is unfortunately starting to germinate.

- Cleveland is by far the hip dog of the week on the forums. I've been reading the forums all week and have not seen a single person on the Bills. Everyone wants some Trent Richardson and Bills 1-8 road record since last year.  Was CLE's offensive outburst real last week or more a product of the fact they trailed for the entire game? Not a game I'd touch.

- The Jets brought in sleep specialists this week and pushed everything back an hour and a half on the schedule so the players don't come in half asleep in the mornings. Players have said the practices have been much improved because of it this week, crisp and high-tempo. Interpret as you see fit.

Of course you posted your thoughts on den before my computer would let me ask the question.