NFL WEEK 17 ...........................2025

I am seeing some public love for Panthers. People over-reacting to the Panthers beating the Rams when the Rams were in regression mode

That is another  reason understanding regression  is very important. 

Public did the same thing in last weeks Colts game after Rivers 1st game back he almost beat the Seahawks who were in regression mode that game.

Line moved pretty  good towards Colts as overreaction to that game. I had serious thoughts to buy out of my play on the Colts because of that.

My Other System ..........

Zona +7 over Bengals --- .55 units

My Other System .............

Panthers +7 (-115) over Seahawks

Seahawks a fade.

This week I didn't run the numbers till later in the week so I needed to lay extra juice to get the best numbers or close to the best.

Last week I did get a push buying Giants up to +3 VS Vikes. That marked the 4th such push in the past 3 or 4 weeks.

I would of made the same plays and picked up 4 losses in those games instead of pushes.

That is big and well worth the extra cost of buying up especially  getting  to key numbers.

Remember the only time.e buying up affects you is when you lose the play, then you lose the extra juice you payed. If you win the play there is no harm.

Just pushing 1 game instead of losing that game is worth 11 buy up losses to break even if you played an additional  10 cents.

4 pushes instead of losses is worth 44 buy up losses at 10 cents to buy up.

Sometimes I do pay more which is less losses to break even obviously.

That is at least 2 to 3 years of buy ups.

Next year I'll  track all my buying points results, will be interesting  to see.

Pending plays .......

Colts

Colts 1st half

Bears

Zona

Panthers

Titans

I may consider buying off the Colts. Looks like another big line move on the Colts.

Line is down to 4, to much love for Rivers and the Rivers story.

Damn Jags possibly getting very lucky to avoid a regression spot. 

But I'd Jags do win this week and next they'd be a definite fade in their 1st playoff game.

FWIW, Colts are just out of the Westgate top 5 at #6

Jags -3.5 (-115) over Colts --- 1.15 units

Jags -1.5 (-125) 1st half --- .63 units

Wow line dropping like a brick in the ocean.

Buying out .........

Maybe I can catch a middle. It does happen from time.e to time on these large line movements. 

I did find Colts +7 (-120 or -125) early in the week. 

Would have love to gotten that.

Good luck with CHI.

Thanks ..........

Pick 6 on the 1st play. Bears up 7-0.

My Other System ............

Fade on Falcons 

Rams -7 (-115) over Falcons --- .53 units

I don't have any regression  indicators against  the Rams but the way their offense is clicking on all cylinders as I already talked about is no doubt a concern.

Maybe game goes under and and the offense does not sustainable it's great recent performance and Rams get the cover.

One could argue that the Bears failed to show up for their 9/14 game at DET.  They lost 52-21, and their D yielded 8.8 YPP to the Lions, and iover 500 yards. I see what you mean though, they have been very competitive. 

Week 18?