Philadelphia +7.5
Tampa has been a money maker all season as they've continually beaten the spread week in and week out. The problem is though sooner or later the lines catch up and laying over a TD in this situation for just the 2nd time in the last 4 years I think this is where this group has maxed out. I went back and looked at the last 16 seasons in the NFL and only 7 teams have lost less than 4 games ATS for an entire season. Tampa is obviously on track to be the 8th but here is why I believe the lines catch them. Those other 7 teams were absolute juggernauts. They had SU records of 12-4, 13-3, 13-3, 13-3, 13-3, 14-2, and 14-2. They were simply so good that they could keep beating the number week after week. Tampa Bay is a .500 team and it's likely that when the lines catch them they will stay too high for a few weeks. IMO this Bucs team goes 2-2 ATS at best to finish the year and likely worse. Peel back the ATS and we'll also see the Bucs really aren't playing well, they are .500 on the year, have lost two straight, and have been out gained in 3 of their last 4. I'm not sure they are playing well enough to be laying this number.
Philly has been a disaster no doubt and even though they've lost half a year's worth of games in a row I think last week showed they will be dangerous down the stretch. They have absolutely nothing to lose at this point and they are also playing a lot of young guys looking to make names for themselves and make an impact on tape for what will likely be a new coaching staff. Replacing Vick, McCoy, and Babin etc with kids like Foles, Brown, and Graham is a big upgrade. This team has moved on from the quitting stage and I believe the young guys play hard for next year. Remember Reid got this team to reel off 4 straight to finish last season when they had nadda to play for then.
Carolina +3.5
The Panthers should have beat the Falcons the last two times they've played. Late last year they blew a 16 point 2nd half lead at home to Atlanta and earlier this year they lost by two points when Atlanta needed several miraculous plays (including a Cam fumble, Rivera punting late like a box, and a Ryan to Roddy 60 yard bomb from their own endzone all with about a minute to play). I like Carolina to show up here and finally take care of business. They know they matchup well with this team and should have sent them a loss earlier. Some great quotes from Greg Hardy this afternoon when asked if Carolina was better than Atlanta which are a likely reflection of the Carolina locker room:
When asked if he meant the Panthers were the better team on Sept. 30 when they lost 30-28 at Atlanta or better overall, Hardy replied, "Both."
Hardy says this Sunday's rematch is about "payback" and "punishment."
He says, "We owe them something and it is coming."
One of the reasons Carolina matches up well is because Atlanta is not good defending the run game where they are ranked 3rd worst in the league surrendering 4.8 YPC. Carolina ran for 199 yards in the first meeting and when they can get their ground game going they are a much different team as they've gone 5-2 ATS this year when rushing for over 100 in a game. A good ground game also sets up play action for Cam, keeping all the heat off him and allowing him to be better in the pocket. In those 7 games he's completing 59% with 251 yards per game, 8.9 YPA, and 10 TD vs 3 INT, all of which are better numbers than the games Carolina has not rushed for over 100 yards.
As far as the Falcons go, while it isn't a terrible spot for them with some extra rest, considering they just played a big statement home game and finally got over the hump beating the Saints and have another big statement home game on deck with the Giants I don't think it's all that great of a spot either. The Panthers trash talk could be interpreted by some as bulletin board material for Atlanta but ask yourself if an 11-1 team is going to be pissed about a 3-9 team that hasn't beaten them in over 3 years talking a little smack. They're probably just laughing it off.
Tennessee +5
No great writeup here just fading a team laying a handful of points off a miraculous comeback on the road. Considering Indy has already beaten Tennessee on the road this year it just serves as another reason why they may come out flat. As much as I love Luck in the clutch and have been on him at home this year because of it, the number has caught up. He can still pull a come from behind win if needed and not cover this number. In fact the Colts have only won twice in regular by more than 4 points all year. There is a reason they need so many late comeback drives from Luck and it's because they really aren't very good. Without question the Colts are this year's magic carpet ride team.
While it not mean much the Titans have had a pattern opposite of what I mentioned with San Fran last week. Except Tennessee is usually terrible for two games and then play really well in the third game. It's happened three times already this year and each time they've won SU as underdogs. This game is situation #4.
GL gents.
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